[BuckyOne]

The problem with theory is that the money needs to be in your pocket before it is truly yours. The old techniques of being ho, scalping, etc. just are not there anymore.

[TheMoneyShot]

It's hard to be on top of the world every single day. No matter how confident and amazing your run is... whether it's 5 days... 7 days or 10 days. The next "false" move.... goodnight. The key is... recovering from that open trapdoor. You aren't the BEST unless you are smart enough to get out of that jam. Most drown.

[Eddy Munny]

BEETORS THAT DONT WAGER 1%-per play with a sample size of 100+ wagers annually will even win long term. Because it involves the key component to success patience, and money management skills.

What does that first line even mean?

[lakerboy]

It's hard to be on top of the world every single day. No matter how confident and amazing your run is... whether it's 5 days... 7 days or 10 days. The next "false" move.... goodnight. The key is... recovering from that open trapdoor. You aren't the BEST unless you are smart enough to get out of that jam. Most drown.

Every day there are new opportunities to get SOMETHING.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Every day there are new opportunities to get SOMETHING.

Laker, you should start a Play thread here at SBR. Save the site, bruh.

Here's my offer: *Start with a 100-unit bankroll. No plays higher than 3-unit risk.

If you DOUBLE your bank to 200-units (+100 Net) by end of Super Bowl, I'll ship you 10 mBTC. That's not a bad offer, and it's uncapped. Whatever the conversion rate is at the time you crease +100, I'll honor it.

Not a bad free-roll. And if you show a profit < +100, I'll pay out pro-rata up to 10 mBTC.

[Eddy Munny]

Laker, you should start a Play thread here at SBR. Save the site, bruh.

Here's my offer: *Start with a 100-unit bankroll. No plays higher than 3-unit risk.

If you DOUBLE your bank to 200-units (+100 Net) by end of Super Bowl, I'll ship you 10 mBTC. That's not a bad offer, and it's uncapped. Whatever the conversion rate is at the time you crease +100, I'll honor it.

Not a bad free-roll. And if you show a profit < +100, I'll pay out pro-rata up to 10 mBTC.

Why don't you extend this offer to Johnny Vegas?

You tell us he's a profitable bettor who merely has bad runs like everyone else... This could be the opportunity for your protege to shut us all up and for you to vindicate yourself, restore honor, and justify the persistent doting.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Why don't you extend this offer to Johnny Vegas?

You tell us he's a profitable bettor who merely has bad runs like everyone else... This could be the opportunity for your protege to shut us all up and for you to vindicate yourself, restore honor, and justify the persistent doting.

He may be paying himself though Eddy? I still think Chuck may be a ghost of Johnny?

[bhoor]

I would love for you to make a thread showing how this is possible. It would make you a legend

It requires great deal of MM for an elite capper with some luck.

[d2bets]

It requires great deal of MM for an elite capper with some luck.

Actually, the only way would be to throw MM out the window and have a god run. You'd never run $50 to $368k in 6 months with sound MM.

[bhoor]

Actually, the only way would be to throw MM out the window and have a god run. You'd never run $50 to $368k in 6 months with sound MM.

True! you need to win first 10 bets etc.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

When will someone else give a free roll similar to the ones I've given?

Mills Lane just gave this site a Standing 8-count.

[JIBBBY]

Discipline works if you cap hard and ride streaks. Embrace the grind..

[TheMoneyShot]

Why don't you extend this offer to Johnny Vegas?

You tell us he's a profitable bettor who merely has bad runs like everyone else... This could be the opportunity for your protege to shut us all up and for you to vindicate yourself, restore honor, and justify the persistent doting.

Chucky can be pretty slick at times. Great poster. You never know.... Chuckster could be using reverse psychology at times when it comes to someone posting plays? He might be taking the fade on someone's cold spell.

[texhooper]

Actually, the only way would be to throw MM out the window and have a god run. You'd never run $50 to $368k in 6 months with sound MM.

This was essentially the point of my long post. You gotta break all the rules to net 5% per day doing this. You can go on a good run but eventually it will collapse due to that. I can’t believe the attention this thread has gotten honestly but I guess I’m contributing to it

[TheMetsSuck]

This is completely impossible over the course of six months, but if you get lucky you could do about a month. But eventually the nefarious means you have to go to to dig yourself out of a bad start to a day will catch up to you. This is all linked to the fact that you will lose, and you will lose twice in a row, and you will lose three times in a row, and you’re most likely chasing to get in the black which makes it worse. You will even lose very safe big faves multiple times in a row too, like no matter what you do to “guarantee” profit everyday, you’re eventually gonna get an elephant’s massive boner shoved up your tailpipe and then your best friend of the same gender will decide they are gay and attracted you and will forcibly start blowing you at the same time and it will be a nightmare and you will go broke. But it’s possible to do for a much shorter time period

[TheMetsSuck]

It's possible

ive done it. Needed a bunch of parlays along the way. 2-3 teamers mainly and some high juice soccer/ tennis faves usually in the mix. Not sustainable though just a heater. Impossible to do off just straight bets imo

[JIBBBY]

[Snowball]

The problem with theory is that the money needs to be in your pocket before it is truly yours. The old techniques of being ho, scalping, etc. just are not there anymore.

But that's ALWAYS true. I fail to see how it's only true for this strategy. It is not a theory. It is a mathematical fact.

[Snowball]

It's hard to be on top of the world every single day. No matter how confident and amazing your run is... whether it's 5 days... 7 days or 10 days. The next "false" move.... goodnight. The key is... recovering from that open trapdoor. You aren't the BEST unless you are smart enough to get out of that jam. Most drown.

Of course, and that goes for all of us all the time. Again, not exclusive to this strategy, but always lurking in any form of gambling.

[Snowball]

ive done it. Needed a bunch of parlays along the way. 2-3 teamers mainly and some high juice soccer/ tennis faves usually in the mix. Not sustainable though just a heater. Impossible to do off just straight bets imo

The only way it works on straight bets is if you martingale at a level of 1%, and never let it go too deep on attempts.
I don't think it's the best approach either.

[veriableodds]

What does that first line even mean?

+Nothing against HOMIE just a statement that one does not have to wager large amounts, to earn
+this thread is about 5% per day that blows my mind
+star rating plays might as well be called charge more earn less in long term. EXAMPLE below
-starting bank 5,000 flat betting 1%=$50
-say your full time just crazy full time all angles, live play(hedging and scalps), crazy markets like soccer, ect ect finding 5500 wagers is not hard at all this could be considered low
-with all that action say your average wager size is 0.7% , 7/10 of one unit(over exposer to one market on a given day despite being a total side one would have to reduce ect ect
-the outcome assuming one gets to a ROI of 5%
total laid @ .7%-per = 192,500 = 9625

[Eddy Munny]

+Nothing against HOMIE just a statement that one does not have to wager large amounts, to earn
+this thread is about 5% per day that blows my mind
+star rating plays might as well be called charge more earn less in long term. EXAMPLE below
-starting bank 5,000 flat betting 1%=$50
-say your full time just crazy full time all angles, live play(hedging and scalps), crazy markets like soccer, ect ect finding 5500 wagers is not hard at all this could be considered low
-with all that action say your average wager size is 0.7% , 7/10 of one unit(over exposer to one market on a given day despite being a total side one would have to reduce ect ect
-the outcome assuming one gets to a ROI of 5%
total laid @ .7%-per = 192,500 = 9625

So when you said "bettors that don't wager 1%" you meant specifically less than one percent, because 5% is also not 1%. It was just worded oddly, I didn't know what you were getting at.

I mean sure that would work for some people, but that's a bit more of a grind than most are willing to adhere to. If I have 1% on a play it's probably an action bet, or a longer shot type stab at plus money, definitely not a high confidence bet.

[Eddy Munny]

Chucky can be pretty slick at times. Great poster. You never know.... Chuckster could be using reverse psychology at times when it comes to someone posting plays? He might be taking the fade on someone's cold spell.

Nope, don't buy it one iota. You're letting Chuck off the hook way too easily.

I'm not saying Chucky the Throat is altogether a bad poster or stupid, but his interactions with Johnny Vegas are cringe and totally disingenuous. He treats Johnny like his kid nephew learning to hit a baseball off a tee, or a cancer patient from the Make-A-Wish Foundation.

Let's get something straight, Johnny is a grown man in his 30's on a gambling forum with other grown men... If he fukking sucks at what he's doing, and he's not a special needs individual (that we know of) then it's okay to say Johnny sucks.

The other part of the equation is that I don't think Johnny really cares whether he wins or loses. I don't believe he handicaps, nor do I believe he backs his own pronouncements with money. So it's not that just he's a bad bettor, but he's secretly an attention whore.

[veriableodds]

So when you said "bettors that don't wager 1%" you meant specifically less than one percent, because 5% is also not 1%. It was just worded oddly, I didn't know what you were getting at.

I mean sure that would work for some people, but that's a bit more of a grind than most are willing to adhere to. If I have 1% on a play it's probably an action bet, or a longer shot type stab at plus money, definitely not a high confidence bet.

correct 3 relative scenarios
-player finds 5 mlb bets he likes @ 1%-per so he puts up 5%
-action , its an 11 game day today and i want to wager the slightest adv on every side, and total. That would be 0.227%-per
-small volume guy that knows approximately how many wagers he does, variance, up downs, risk tolerance = nothing wrong with going 2%per play then

even if finding a bias dog at say +220 a wager like that doesn't deserve a full unit

[lakerboy]

correct 3 relative scenarios
-player finds 5 mlb bets he likes @ 1%-per so he puts up 5%
-action , its an 11 game day today and i want to wager the slightest adv on every side, and total. That would be 0.227%-per
-small volume guy that knows approximately how many wagers he does, variance, up downs, risk tolerance = nothing wrong with going 2%per play then

even if finding a bias dog at say +220 a wager like that doesn't deserve a full unit

Last line made me laugh. I'm guessing you are completely disciplined and have a unit strategy.

You lose so much that way as well but of course no one sees that part.

[veriableodds]

Last line made me laugh. I'm guessing you are completely disciplined and have a unit strategy.

You lose so much that way as well but of course no one sees that part.

Its strange. I hate kelly criterion, and all those rate systems. However Its almost if not very close. I use model prediction %'s. Since there is no such thing as 100% possibly in any of my wagers which would = a full unit. Mainly volume wagering, but I use various forms of wagering sizes based of the angle of attack.
so tomorrow's game say I like the dodgers, and also think Detroit can hang
LAD/0.51u@+105
DET/0.38u@+189 that equals 0.89u

[ChuckyTheGoat]

correct 3 relative scenarios
-player finds 5 mlb bets he likes @ 1%-per so he puts up 5%
-action , its an 11 game day today and i want to wager the slightest adv on every side, and total. That would be 0.227%-per
-small volume guy that knows approximately how many wagers he does, variance, up downs, risk tolerance = nothing wrong with going 2%per play then

even if finding a bias dog at say +220 a wager like that doesn't deserve a full unit

Veri, I'm trying to follow your notes. One concept that I'll present, and not everyone understands this:

*In a Moneyline sport, two possible bets:
a) -200 Fav that you rate to win 70% of the time.
b) +200 Dog that you rate to win 35% of the time.

On an expected ROI basis, a) .70 * +100 = 70. -200 * 30 = -60. +10 Profit/200 Risk = +5.0% ROI.
b) .35* +200 = +70. .65 * -100 = -65. +5 Profit/100 Risk = +5.0% ROI.

Inter-changable bets, of equal value? Not IMHO. Study the probability of Ruin, which we can define as Likelihood of turning a profit on 100 identical bets: *Much more likely to clear a profit on the -200 Fav. Too much risk on the +200 Dog. One really needs to view the Dog/Fav on a Risk-Adjusted basis.

[Eddy Munny]

Laker, you should start a Play thread here at SBR. Save the site, bruh.

Here's my offer: *Start with a 100-unit bankroll. No plays higher than 3-unit risk.

If you DOUBLE your bank to 200-units (+100 Net) by end of Super Bowl, I'll ship you 10 mBTC. That's not a bad offer, and it's uncapped. Whatever the conversion rate is at the time you crease +100, I'll honor it.

Not a bad free-roll. And if you show a profit < +100, I'll pay out pro-rata up to 10 mBTC.

When will someone else give a free roll similar to the ones I've given?

Mills Lane just gave this site a Standing 8-count.

Sounds like Laker took you up on your offer. How are you guys gonna do this?

Are you tracking his plays in your thread, Chucky, or is he going to start his own thread?

All he has to do is double his bankroll, correct?

Do you grade his losses the same way you do JV or do the stakes dictate stricter terms?

Please layout the parameters so us onlookers know what to expect going forward.

[veriableodds]

Veri, I'm trying to follow your notes. One concept that I'll present, and not everyone understands this:

*In a Moneyline sport, two possible bets:
a) -200 Fav that you rate to win 70% of the time.
b) +200 Dog that you rate to win 35% of the time.

On an expected ROI basis, a) .70 * +100 = 70. -200 * 30 = -60. +10 Profit/200 Risk = +5.0% ROI.
b) .35* +200 = +70. .65 * -100 = -65. +5 Profit/100 Risk = +5.0% ROI.

Inter-changable bets, of equal value? Not IMHO. Study the probability of Ruin, which we can define as Likelihood of turning a profit on 100 identical bets: *Much more likely to clear a profit on the -200 Fav. Too much risk on the +200 Dog. One really needs to view the Dog/Fav on a Risk-Adjusted basis.

If your going to shoot that angle just take the guess work out and go with CLV or whatever the hek they call it. In its essence it just the probability % of team winning, and the payout line. In other words the guardians have a 49.1% probable chance the line is +141 giving you an +18% expected long term ROI(recomended not to bet on under 5% roi or +105) The homework is done its just crunching the 2 #s.

[PunterLog]

I do 5% a day with extreme ease with very low risk but it's not scalable i.e I can do 5% on 100K but can't be done on 1million as there isn't required liquidity in the markets I target on Betfair.

I do it on Betfair with Horse Racing and Greyhound racing being my major niches.

[JIBBBY]

[Eddy Munny]

It makes me sad that Chucky makes a lucrative offer in this thread, brags about it, and then ghosts without following through as promised. Those are the kind of shenanigans that bring this forum down and hurt viewership.

People are fleeing because of Chucky the Throat's antics. My heart hurts.

[d2bets]

I do 5% a day with extreme ease with very low risk but it's not scalable i.e I can do 5% on 100K but can't be done on 1million as there isn't required liquidity in the markets I target on Betfair.

I do it on Betfair with Horse Racing and Greyhound racing being my major niches.

So you can make $5,000 each day every day with $100k funded? Congrats on winning $1.825 million in the last year.

[veriableodds]

Another example of all the value out today. These are long term expected ROI not get rich quick(some of these are below 10% roi with I personally dont like but, all are over 5% Roi
mlb
phi/21%
clv/19%
pitt/7%
oak/10%
wsh/8%
laa/8%
det/7%
MLS 3 way lines
ne rev/+130
la fc/+180
hou/+220
Columbus/+220

[Eddy Munny]

So you can make $5,000 each day every day with $100k funded? Congrats on winning $1.825 million in the last year.

With "extreme ease" mind you.

Punter just might put books out of business soon. We all need to cultivate new hobbies.