Check out Monday's best value NBA player prop bets, courtesy of SBR's Jon Metler:
Player prop: Kyle Lowry Over 3.5 assists vs. Bucks (+116 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
"Kyle Lowry is not the same player he used to be, but it's clear that Erik Spoelstra is struggling with multiple guards out of the rotation, and the Miami Heat have a chance to win this series. Tyler Herro is unable to play due to a broken hand, and Victor Oladipo has been ruled out for the rest of the season following Game 3. With the team shorthanded, someone has to step up, and I don't believe BetRivers has properly accounted for the possibility of Lowry taking on a greater role.
On Monday, Lowry is projected to have 4.1 assists against the Bucks, which means that the Over 3.5 assists can be priced at -135. When there's such a big difference between your pricing and the sportsbooks, you sometimes wonder if you got it wrong. But in this case, I don't feel that way because Pinnacle opened Lowry at -127 for Over 3.5 assists on Sunday afternoon.
This bet has a positive expected value of 23%, but that's only if you maximize your edge by doing your shopping at BetRivers. PointsBet is offering the Over at +105 and FanDuel is at +104. As we get closer to tipoff, I expect this prop to become more popular, and it should move to minus money, particularly if the sportsbooks adjust to Pinnacle's price."
Player prop: Jimmy Butler Under 27.5 points vs. Bucks (+116 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
"There are people who will try to convince you that Butler's scoring of 30-plus points in two out of three games this series - and in only 28 minutes in Game 3 - means he can continue to score at such a rate. But, in reality, the total is too high.
Butler is projected to score 26.8 points on Monday against the Bucks, which means the Under 27.5 points should be trading at -125. However, at FanDuel, we can buy it for +116. Playoff Butler is a real thing, but it's already been factored into this line and more, which leads me to take an alternate Under.
I could bet on the Under 28.5, but where's the fun in that? Instead, I can increase my expected value to 20% by betting on the alternate line. To take advantage of this opportunity, you should place your bet at FanDuel. BetRivers is offering only +106 on the Under 27.5 points, which lowers your expected value to 14%."
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Originally Posted by Jayvegas420
