Originally Posted by
DucktheHoward
In my roughly 20 years of gambling, I have never found a long shot that I felt so good about. Will KLB be selected? No, most likely not, but I will feel a sting of disappointment, as I am invested for over $100 at an average of 70 to 1. I started buying shares when she was around 25 to 1, and when she dropped down to 90 and 100 to 1, I scooped up some more. Just in case it hits, I thought, I don't want to be in for a measly 10 or 20 bucks.
So, why do I like this bet so much that I have bothered to go thru such trouble?
Really, 2 points lead me down this path. First, Biden MUST select a black woman. I really don't think he has a choice at this point. As Charlamagne the God said a couple weeks ago, "Biden needs to STFU....and announce his black woman VP so I can be excited about voting for her". The second point is, if Biden goes away from Harris/Rice, who would be the most logical choice?
Now, WHY would Biden go away from Rice (+179) or Harris (+117) in favor of KLB (now back to +10000). First, let's deal with Rice. Whether you support Biden or not, chances are, you don't hate the guy. People hate Trump, just like people hated Hillary. People really don't dislike Biden to the point that they would go out and vote AGAINST him. However, people hate Susan Rice. Voters who would simply sit out the election, or Trump voters who might be thinking of voting for Biden, would show up to protest vote against Susan Rice. Polling indicates that right now, a solid majority of the electorate has bought into the argument that Joe Biden's VP would be the one really calling the shots. Also not to be ignored, John Kasich has agreed to appear at next week's convention on Biden's behalf. I don't see someone like Kasich, who most likely wants to remain in politics, putting himself in position where he supported Susan Rice to be the next president. A lot of moderate anti-Trump republicans would run far away from Biden rather thank link themselves to Susan Rice.
Now, looking at the front runner, people say that Kamela Harris would be the safest choice, but is this really true? When you start a conversation with someone by saying, "I'm not calling you a racist, but..." well, IMO, you are calling that person a racist, and Kamela Harris did that very thing to Joe Biden at their famous "busing" debate. Biden also has some highly controversial comments on video ("I don't want my kids growing up in a racial jungle") from that same early 1970s time period. By putting Harris on the ticket, Biden suddenly opens the door on creating a debate on who's the bigger racist between him and Trump, and why would he want that headache? Let's also not forget Kamela's time as a prosecutor -- remember that time she joked on the radio about smoking weed, yet as a prosecutor, she went after people for that very thing? Where is the upside in picking Kamela Harris, where is the "safe" side of picking Kamela Harris?
So, looking beyond Rice/Harris, who do we have left? A couple weeks ago Karen Bass (+2100) was the pick of the day, rising as high as +400 or so, but her past remarks on Castro have come back to end her little run. I am old enough to remember when democrats themselves shouted Bernie Sanders down for daring to say that Castro had good schools. Val Demmings (+3000)? She is an intriguing pick, but some vocal leaders within the BLM movement have spoken out against her due to her past role as a uniformed police officer, and Biden and the democrats have shown absolutely no desire to go against BLM.
Now, we get to KLB, the mayor of Atlanta. Remember when Stacy Abrams came withing a nose hair of beating out the republican candidate for governor? Most pundits say that Georgia is ripe for the taking, and someone like KLB could just help him put that state in the democrats' pocket. She was the first major political person to endorse Biden and has stuck by his side, even when it looked like he was on the verge of dropping out of the race. A recent Morning Consult focus group showed that of all the VP contenders, Bottoms was the most liked (Duckworth came in 2nd, but she ain't black), and none of the other candidates polled above 50%. She has been on the right side of the mask debate, even to a point of being sued by the governor. She has an intriguing personal story that would connect with the black community, including her father being a popular R&B singer who once performed on the same stage as the Beatles.
With someone like KLB, obviously you would worry about having a Sarah Palin moment ("I can see Russia from my house"), but it wouldn't be too difficult to keep her on democrat friendly networks and avoid the types of questions that could get her into trouble. Also, let's not forget that Biden recently said it was not necessary for his VP pick to be an expert on foreign policy -- Biden considers himself an expert and said that he expects to take the lead on foreign policy. He wants his VP to focus her efforts on domestic issues, and what are the issues of the day here at home? Corona virus and racial equality, and KLB checks both of these blocks.
Anyway, it's probably going to be Harris/Rice, people like me don't hit these 100 to 1 shots, but I don't believe I've ever seen a 100 to 1 shot that I could make a case for. If you are looking for a last second play on the VP selection, Keisha Lance Bottoms is your best bet not named Harris/Rice.