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Chucky, please be aware that LAC split and seperated into LAAC (Argentina) and LAC (GM/Nevada). We survived the Chilean drama a year or so ago. I have no pulse on what may or may not happen in Argentina. I'm focusing on LAC. BOL!Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Ya, Madison. I'm aware of the stock-split. I'm monitoring both of them.
You know the old saying: BUY LOW.
I appreciate metals. At the moment, however, it's amazing how much attention BTC is getting. I guess one could say that metals are flying under the radar.
Madison, on the topic of metals, I found a Rosie dime in the coin machine yesterday. I looked at it, and it had the dull appearance. 1954 date and it tested out on the old Silver drop on the counter-top.
For fun, I occasionally exchange bills for coins at the bank:
*Pennies are actually the best bang for the buck, if you have patience. About 14% of the pennies in circulation are the COPPER pennies.
*Silver-searching is tougher. But I have had a few good hauls. Had a Quarter roll that blew me away. You sometimes pick up the "collection dumps." I swear to you that I got 32 silvers out of 40.
Gold
Slurry and others, your thoughts?
One ounce of gold is currently trading for about $2,160. That's roughly $100 more per ounce than the 2020 peak.
But this change in momentum hasn't made its way to gold miners. In fact, gold miners are down about 19% from their 2023 peak.
Is Nvidia going to overtake Apple and Microsoft for market cap this year?
Cap up over $1T year to date. Have we ever seen anything like this?
Yeah gold has finally broke out above the all time high after bumping its head for the last 4 years. The miners on the other hand were until the last week or so been at 53 week lows. I'm very bullish on the miners here. Actually I've been buying the miners up all the way down so I may be way overweight miners at this point. I can't help it however. I think gold is over extended short term and really would like to see it settle down and come back to the 2075ish spot, hold that, then its off to the races. It will bring the miners with it and I think it is a move that takes quite a while to complete. I think it is really possible to double the miners in the coming year. Not as good as the NVDA, but I'll take it.
NVDA is an annuity that pays 4-5% daily.
Madison, you know I respect your opinion re: Metals.
1) Thanks for the tip on LAC vs LAAC.
...I will take your approach. Hold LAAC, and add to LAC when it dips a little.
2) Pretty happy with my Silver holdings, and I do hold at least a little Gold exposure.
...I do buy the Silver coins when I think they're cheap. FYI, I sometimes find the 40% Silver to be a better bargain. Buyers tend to focus more on the 90%.
3) You have any opinion on Uranium/Platinum (in addition to your pro-Lithium stance)?
...I have some exposure to them. I always wonder if I should be adding more.
Thanks for any reply!
Hey Bud,
I'm afraid, while I loved the play, I failed badly in missing the Uranium move. Not real sure what to do at this point? Sort of like SMCI, NVDA, etc. Everywhere I venture all I see is hockey sticks.
One area I've been hovering around is the Small Nuclear plants. Sort of like substations. The large plants take like 10 years to build out. The future is clearly in the need for energy to power all this technology, AI, Quantum computing etc. I guess it's analogous to the folks who outfitted the miners during the gold rush. The picks and shovels play. Check out BWX/BWXT. I've been here for quite awhile, but once again a hockey stick. I'll report back when I finalize my research. BOL!!
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I think the uranium play is kind of like the NVDA play, if you're on the train already ride that for all that it is worth. If your still at the station waiting to get on, you're the dumb money and put the FOMO back in check and hop on board of other markets that are beat down and just leaving the station like the Gold Miners. Its just my general nature to look at the stuff that is beat to shyt and grab that when no one else wants them and let them go.
I also like the short play for the banks. Not just the little ones, although you can throw a dart and hit a stressed bank, but also the big boys. Unless the FED comes out and makes some changes pretty quick things will get rough for the banksters in the near future.
OK Friday's action in the market was a signal and I'll go over some of them for you.
First lets look at everyone darling stock the last year or so NVDA. The one that has a rocket launch since the start of the year.
Here is the 3 month chart with daily candle sticks.
- A bearish engulfing candle that by definition, starts out above the candle before, moves higher, then crashes back down to close below the entire candle from the previous day. These patterns are things of possible bad times to come, and need a confirmation candle within a couple of days that closes even lower than the engulfing candle, so were looking for a close in NVDA on Monday or Tuesday below $875.
- We have selling volume that is much greater than the average volume for the reversing day.
- The stochastic lines are way overbought and rolling over coupled with the MACD at an extreme level.
Now I'm not saying that the end is near for NVDA, but there are signals that things may have turned here. Everything is just a possibility and nothing is in stone here, but I think it is more probable than not that the next move for the NVDA is down.
Now back to the market overall.
I put this chart up last week and it shows the rising wedge the SPY is still in. Notice how the price action has respected the boundaries for the last 6 months. Last week I told you I was looking for it to break either way and usually when that happens its a pretty big move. Well I'm still waiting as the action for the week was still contained within the wedge even as the wedge is getting pretty tight at this point.
After seeing the NVDA action on Friday, and looking carefully at the market action as the day went on, lets look at another example of how I play this and make the trade an emotionless event even before it gets going.
This is the 2 Day chart of the SPY with 10 minute candle closes. That yellow dotted line is the upper limit of the rising wedge the SPY has been in for the last 6 months. The line isn't meant to be exact, but generally good enough to trade off of. At the start of the day, we see price was moving up towards the upper boundary, when it reached the boundary, the price stalled and couldn't bust through with about an hour's worth of time. After about 30 minutes, the bet was that price would decline at least on an intraday basis so this is where I bought PUTS that expire at the end of the day. Then we just sit wait and watch. We see SPY price going in our favor, notice the NVDA stock with heavy volume losing ground, so there is nothing to do except let it happen. Then at the end of the day, I sell those puts on the daily SPY options, and buy PUTS for next week on the SPY with the profits from today. If you do the math, the Puts originally cost me about $1.25, they got sold after they gained $5.75 which isn't the entire move for a nice seed money to then take the PUTS for next week. In reality I started with about 10K, made about 55K, and now invested 50K in next weeks play. No matter what I still walk away with 5K.
Its the same technique I used a few weeks ago, and I will continue to post these examples of this method because depending on the bankroll, this is a way to make emotionless trades that you can let run either way allot easier than if the original money wasn't from the house and all I did is pay attention to price action with technical analysis.
We'll see what happens next week, but I'm looking at a SPY that is on the brink of a big move here, and usually a rising wedge resolves to the downside. Playing the odds with a decent PUTS bet of 50K, and if the market falls apart, I could make enough to buy one of my snot nosed bastard kids a house. The particulars of the PUTS I bought just before the close are: SPY PUT OPTION with a $512 STRIKE @ $3.97(100) X 126 = $50,022 that expires 3/15/2024.
Last edited by Slurry Pumper; 03-09-24 at 09:01 AM.
Slurry, Much appreciated, but some of those charts remind me of a bad night in the 60's when someone slipped something nasty into one of my drinks. LOL.
Supposed excess cash on the sideline, 8T (NOT)
Sometimes supposed prognosticators have their heads where the sun doesn't shine.
DO NOT believe the hype that there are Trillions of dollars waiting to jump back into stocks. First off most everything is at an all time high.
Do not underestimate the elderly. All they want is CD's and MM's circa 5%. They've suffered (been bludgeoned) enormously the last decade due to 0% interest. The elderly doesn't want risk. They've seen several major meltdowns (Losses) pre-retirement. They just want the 5% which helps them afford food and housing.
Bottom line, a lot of this money on the sidelines isn't going anywhere unless 0% forces them out of secure returns. That generation has been brutally penalized by low/insane interest.
Our whole system is a ponzi scheme of fiat money, and the 70-90 age population has paid a HUGE price!!
ok, if the spy gets to the dotted line soon, I'll take some profit on those Puts.
The price sheet probably lags the chart by 5 minutes do to my processing time to shuffle around pictures. Ant way I'll take 25% oif mt positions profits for about an hours worth of work and see what happens with the rest.
*First time ever, I sold off one share of MSTR when BTC price was at ATH.
*On the mini-dip, I'm buying into BITB. Dollar-cost averaging into BITB.
LAC +4% today.
Are you continuing to buy into LAC on the way up?
Yes. Dribbles though. This is a 5 yr play for me. Now's the time to expand your Lithium exposure if you believe we are at or near the lows.
Thanks, Madison. I have been adding some Lithium on the dips.
One observation when you look at the Investment board. This should be obvious:
*Crypto assets: going Up.
*Traditional assets: Flat (or in the Red).
Did you look at BWX/BWXT? Looks like a real solid Nuclear trade to me??
No, I don't understand that one.
ATH, but Uranium and Nuclear. SMALL nuclear plants are the future. BOL Bud.
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Following the rules today so its all about discipline and not swinging for the fences. Today I was all about jsut taking what the market gives me, and living to play another day. With that in mind lets see how my risk free emotionless trade is going. Below we have the 5 Day chart with 30 minute candle closes. The dotted lines are those very same rising wedge lines the SPY has been in for half a year now, and they continue to get closer and closer together. The arrows show what happens every time the boundary is reached and what happens, so with me sitting there with 126 PUT options this morning means I'd be a fool not to take some profit when the opportunity is given to me. Price was hanging around doing nothing about an hour into trading this morning which is typically a point for a turn around every day, so I sold 30 of those Puts for $6.00 ($6.00 X 30 X100) = $18000. Keeping score that is $32K shy of this particular trade to break even, and added to the 5K I took on Friday, that is $23K of profit generated just from the 2 trades I am touting so far. I have 4 days left with 96 Puts in play still. Tomorrow we have no idea what will happen, and it is probably 50 - 50 at this point which way the tape will run, but if it runs south, I'll still make a killing, if it runs north, I can hang onto these until the end of the week before cutting them loose or letting them expire penniless. Either way I still made money and this is the easiest disciplined trade to under stand, just respect the boundaries until they are broken.
Yeah this line here.
Solid analysis. Hope it happens for you!
My PUTS took a pretty good beating today as the SPY gained $5 on the day causing the price to decline all the way down to $1.27. Currently the worth is hanging out at 96 X 1.27 X 100 = $12,192 which under normal circumstances, I would have gotten rid of them way earlier in the day, but since I got 3 days left on those babies, I'll see what happens tomorrow.
Gotta love how the CPI comes in confirming that inflation ain't coming down any more but gold drops like $25 and the markets rally off the news.
Copper having a huge day today!
WooHoo .. I had to do a double take at the scroll.
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LAC up 20% pre market
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+25% right now. Madison called that one.
Lithium Americas Provides a Thacker Pass Construction Plan Update
Lithium Americas Receives Conditional Commitment for $2.26 Billion ATVM Loan from the U.S. DOE for Construction of Thacker Pass
Lithium Americas was the target of some unusual options trading on Thursday. Investors bought 4,441 call options on the stock. This is an increase of approximately 117% compared to the average daily volume of 2,044 call options.
Madison, are you saying that you tried to game the system this morning?
Just FYI, bud.
Just messing with you.
Alright lets see what is going on here as I believe the market is being held up by the "I Beam of Bullshyt" pattern, which is to say the big boys are trying to goat as many people as possible into the markets before pulling out the rug. Lets look at the last couple of days on the 5 Day chart with 30 minute candle sticks.
Last Friday the SPY ran right up to the upper wedge boundary I've been pointing out now for ever so you should be familiar with it cause it is marking several turning points not just this week, but for the last 6 months running at this point. The high is $518.22, and now that level become really important as the week rolls on here. Then I bought puts for the rest of the day right at the top and rode that down to the end of the day, bought some more for this Friday's expiration, and continued to ride that down to the lower boundary. Sold 25% and have been hanging on every since. Price then turned around and with the help of a goose operation on Tuesday, the SPY trie t oget to the high but couldn't quite make it. Today finally the market tried to rally again but fel lapart and was coming for the lower boundary pretty hard until about 3:30 when it turns around on a dime on pretty heavy volume to run back up into the close.
So where did the turning point come? How about that same lower boundary where it always turns the market. When it got there and couldn't push through, I sold half of my PUTS that I still have left at a loss to where I bought them, so 48 X 2.77 X 100 = $13,296. This time I took half of the money and bought CALLS with the high probability of another run up into the close. That's 61 X 1.05 X 100 = $6405. To keep score I now have 61 calls and 48 puts that expire tomorrow. And the running tally of profit put away is around $29,500.
Tomorrow's game plan goes like this: If the market starts out bullish, it will be all about the high of last Friday, can it get to $518, and if it does can the price break through that, if not I'll be selling the CALLS and probably investing another 10K into the same play for next week via PUTS that expire tomorrow with the thought of selling those and buying more that expire next Friday. I suspect prices will be moving tomorrow, and we still have that boundary condition that when broken, will generate some excitement with either way it goes. I'm hedging my bets that it goes south, but I gotta play the ref and play it as its goes.
My favorite market indicator IWM had relative weakness today, and my 2nd favorite indicator the Dow Transports also had relative weakness. It smells to me like e are heading for a rug pull here in the near future, like tomorrow or next week, and I will continue to play the boundaries in this manner until they are broken.
Onshoring … Where the momentum is, and will be for the foreseeable future.
LAC … (Lithium) T he US has lagged other countries in producing the metal. Nearly 95% of the Worlds Lithium comes from just 4 countries, Australia, Chile, Argentina, and China. Only 1 percent of the Lithium used in the US is harvested domestically. New York Times.
A few others to check out:
PLL … Lithium
INTC … Not Lithium, but due to receive huge subsidies from the US Gov. Currently building out (Capex) two 20 Billion dollar chip fabrication plants in Arizona/Midwest Ohio or Indiana. This guy has the potential to be a 10x. Already has commitments/promises from NVDA and others. Ultimately vying to be the TSM of the US.
Best to all!
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