[adrupert]

is there any reason behind u picking games like the Manu one before the lineups are announced?

Lineups don't mean diddly to me unless 5-6 players aren't playing. Dont think Man united is tanking yet so their line up should be normal.

[adrupert]

Lineups don't mean diddly to me unless 5-6 players aren't playing. Dont think Man united is tanking yet so their line up should be normal.

And because I like to catch the odds at their best. Closer to game time the worse the line for favorite picks usually.

[adrupert]

I'm actually interested to see them play without Rooney and robin CAN persie

[adrupert]

I might just close it up for the season soon though. Im up 20k (more than incouldve dreamed of) and the end of the season could get tricky trying to cap. Using prior stats to predict future outcomes doesn't work as well in these matches where motivation is a key factor. My capping and system doesn't account for motivation or lineups.

[Jcole94]

I might just close it up for the season soon though. Im up 20k (more than incouldve dreamed of) and the end of the season could get tricky trying to cap. Using prior stats to predict future outcomes doesn't work as well in these matches where motivation is a key factor. My capping and system doesn't account for motivation or lineups.

yeah good choice and the last couple days haven't been very favorable. you betting on world cup?

[true blue 26]

maybe take a closer long in the last matchday of 1. and 2. bundesliga. a lot of teams are still fighting for something and are going to give 100%, im sure ull be able to find some winners there too

[adrupert]

yeah good choice and the last couple days haven't been very favorable. you betting on world cup?

Most definitely. Especially the early rounds there will be winners a plenty.

And yeah after these last few days I realize how quickly I could lose the remaining 20+k.

I am going to do a lot of back testing on the smaller summer leagues these next few days. See if I can figure out some trends. Cool part is I get to do this for school too, as part of my statistics class I need to analyze real world stuff so ill be killin two birds with one stone.

[adrupert]

This James Wilson guy has huge upside. Man united has a bright young squad with januzaj as well

[Jcole94]

Most definitely. Especially the early rounds there will be winners a plenty.

And yeah after these last few days I realize how quickly I could lose the remaining 20+k.

I am going to do a lot of back testing on the smaller summer leagues these next few days. See if I can figure out some trends. Cool part is I get to do this for school too, as part of my statistics class I need to analyze real world stuff so ill be killin two birds with one stone.

yeah although the world cup seems to have more upsets than any other football tournament. In 2002 Senegal beat the world champions france and South Korea made it to the semi finals.

thats awesome id love to study football trends in class

[adrupert]

Finally back in the W column. Thanks united!

[edabramov]

Good job Adrupert.

[adrupert]

I've been doing a stats analysis on football (nfl) for school. After running a bunch of tests and anovas I found that The biggest factor in determining spread is turnovers. Which also happens to be the most unpredictable statistic. Explains why nfl seems hardest to cap (for me anyways).

Just some interesting info I thought I'd share

[tainted]

Thanks adrupert! Tailed you on manu

[serballin]

Yo rups, in Australia we have a similar sport (rugby) where I'm tinkering with a pretty successful capping system, at least so far. I plan to take my talents to the nfl this September. Thanks for the turnover stat - my system doesn't account for that either but ill see what I can do. Ill hit you up if I'm on a heater, seeing as you threw us dogs some bones in the football (except for this last week )

peace bro

[adrupert]

Grabbed this when it opened but its at -220 now. Still think there's value. Never been on the Matt brown train... Think he's on a good streak but he's not elite or top 5 material. He's basically a poor mans version of his opponent this fight, a much slower one. I think silva takes this tbh. Silva gets caught sometimes but I think he will be aware of that this fight.

Erick silva -170 $850

I will either prop it or add more on the ML near fight time.... Just reserved those odds as I figured it would rise.

[swordsandtequila]

I've been doing a stats analysis on football (nfl) for school. After running a bunch of tests and anovas I found that The biggest factor in determining spread is turnovers. Which also happens to be the most unpredictable statistic. Explains why nfl seems hardest to cap (for me anyways).

Just some interesting info I thought I'd share

Not just you my man, NFL generally has the sharpest lines. Can still find value, but by and large it ain't easy. I much prefer college football, lots of teams means lots of games. Mid-level conferences usually have teams that are undervalued by the books, can usually find good lines. Looking forward to World Cup, but after that I'm ready for NCAA. Second half of the soccer season has been a grind. Congrats on a solid run, good thread you have here.

[adrupert]

Real Madrid -1.5 -165 $1320
Aston villa +3 -200 $800
Psg -1.5 -155 $775
Fc Basel -1-110 $550
Ebsjberg live +1/2 -155 $620

[adrupert]

If Monaco gets to underdog odds live imma jump on it. Opened at -135 shouldn't take more than 30 mins in.

[Tpkpa]

Monaco doesn't play anything now, coach has been fire. Guingamp win french cup and try to stay in this league.
No public in monaco, except guingamp to take at least one point

[adrupert]

Plovdiv live +3.5 -250 $750

[adrupert]

Monaco doesn't play anything now, coach has been fire. Guingamp win french cup and try to stay in this league.
No public in monaco, except guingamp to take at least one point

I know but at home at underdog odds I think Monaco wins by 1 regardless. Just an inkling tho, might not pull the trigger

[Tpkpa]

Ok gl win that, hope you win. I have real & psg in parlay too

[adrupert]

Good call. Monaco didn't score glad I didn't pull trigger

[Duckshit]

F...ING brutal, I don't know how you afford to lose thousands of dollars every time look up.

[adrupert]

Blah looking at a 3-3 soccer morning in the red. I need my mojo back. Knew man city -2 was the play but was getting ****** on favorites lately. Should probably stick with what got me here. 4-2 and 3-3 is a huge difference.

[adrupert]

F...ING brutal, I don't know how you afford to lose thousands of dollars every time look up.

This is the worst run I've ever had in soccer. Thankfully my book is padded from my earlier successes. I certainly can't afford to lose much longer though.

[adrupert]

Leicester ml -180 +$500
leicester -1 EVEN +$300
Qpr pick +$400
Hoffenheim live +2 +$400
Hamburger +3 PUSH
Getafe +4 +$400
Man U -1 -170 -$680
-1.5 +105 -$200
-2 +170- $100
Getafe live +2 +$1000
Ajax -1.5 -140 -$840
man city ml -135 +$500
man city o2.5 -175 +$500
pec zwolle +2 +110 +$440
Seattle Sounders ML +$400
-1 PUSH
Roma -1 -130 -$780
arsenal -1.5 -130 -$780
norwhich +2.5 +$1000
chelsea u2.5 +$1000
Real Madrid -1.5 -175 -$1050
Emelec -1 -170 -$850
red bulls live ML +$440
Real Madrid corners -3 +$500
club San Jose -1.5 -155 -$775
rm/valencia o2.5 -220 +$400
Liverpool -1 -180 -$3400
sociedad -1 -$780
kashima -$700
Shonan +#500
man u -1 +$500
Real Madrid -1.5 -165 -$1320
Aston villa +3 -200 -$800
Psg -1.5 -155 -$775
Fc Basel -1-110 +$500
Ebsjberg live +1/2 -155 +$400
plovdiv +$300

20W -15L-2PUSH

54% wins, 40% losses, 6% push

-$3310 since last update, +24,990.50 thread

Looks like it wasnt as bad as I thought for the weekend. Definitely not up to my standard though. Without that Liverpool collapse I am actually up 2k instead of down 3k. That was a 5k swing with those 3 goals in a matter of minutes. Sad really...

[adrupert]

This is my first negative update in this thread and I determined to never have another. penetrate you bookie!

[adrupert]

Pacers ml -180 $720
thunder ml -200 $600

[adrupert]

Good shit pacers

[adrupert]

Sounders/Dallas o2.5 -155 $775

[adrupert]

Thanks sounders )

[adrupert]

Fc Brasov -1 -220 $880

[adrupert]

Perfect 3-0 night. Hopefully getting my mojo back to kill it some more.

[adrupert]

Fc thun -110 $660