[smithah2]

???? Didn't you get 2 winners yesterday?

No, he had caps -1 and habs -1. they both won by 1 so both pushed. the other was the over in the caps game which didn't hit. hence 0-1-2

[cotes17]

Wish they both hit! Would have been nice

[mrginandtonic]

Is it just me or do you guys notice this also?? It seems that favorites are winning at a much higher rate recently than usual. I mean we can almost just blindly taking favorites, money line and puck line.

[Jason87]

Well I could tell you why that happens. I stopped betting NHL for a while. This is why.. I played Boston ML 3 times in a row when they lost to Toronto, Senators and Carolina. Then, I stopped. So they won 5 in a row.

But seriously - you are right. Favs are not only winning lately, but scoring many goals covering pucklines. No idea why that happens, transfers time coming maybe? Or All-Stars? That doesnt affect LA Kings though haha

[cotes17]

Is it just me or do you guys notice this also?? It seems that favorites are winning at a much higher rate recently than usual. I mean we can almost just blindly taking favorites, money line and puck line.

Yeah something's going on here. Can't seem to get a decent winning day in lately. Maybe need to change up my strategy

[cotes17]

Yesterday

1-3 -$191

ytd: 188-163-26 +$4,314

[fitguy67]

Yeah something's going on here. Can't seem to get a decent winning day in lately. Maybe need to change up my strategy

No you don't...u'r finding value over the long-haul with what u'r doing...

just like heads/tails...the results come in waves of H-rich and T-rich spells...if you got a book offering H+110/T-110 the smart play is to keep playing H every play cuz there's a solid 5% OVER THE LONG HAUL...

so you keep firing on the H-bets...even tho some day's u'll go 0-4, 1-3...cuz over the long haul the results will even out and you'll be left with a 5% bump on every bet you made...
if you had a three day period where Tails came up 7 times out of 9, you wouldn't "change up" anything...cuz the smart bet you've accurately capped to have a 5% edge hasn't "stopped working"...it simply takes time to work

anyhow, think of your capping as a much more complicated way of finding similar H+110/T-110 value in the lines presented by the books...
and know that just as H's/T's will come in waves...so will "square"/"sharp" results...

your record over this thread's haul shows you've got an edge with the ways you've been thinking...

so keep doin' what you're don', and let the results come in waves as they do...don't try to adjust to recent spell's results...cuz that's just what they are, spells...money isn't made in spells, but in the long haul, as all the up-$ sharp-rich spells and down-$ square-rich spells net themselves out...and since u haven't been blindly "picking winners" (instead u'v been looking at the prices before biting, insisting on payouts that more than compensate for the bet's probably of losing)...you'll win the "net$ war" over the haul...even tho' you're guaranteed to lose lots of battles along the way

so, it ain't broke, don't fix it...you've been finding plays that over the haul have you on the right side...if you didn't you wouldn't have netted the solid plus$ you have so far...so stay on the right side=keep on doing what you've been doing, taking pains to NOT incorporate the recent wave of square-rich results (think of the last week's worth of play's results as 15 minutes of casino-roulette spins...if Red were getting hot, you wouldn't think that it's a better bet than it was yesterday, now would you?)
____________

that's all, keep finding value the way you do, ignore recent results, cuz it always comes in waves...stay sharp, even if the results switch into square zone for a while

[RollinDo]

Nice points Fitguy.
I am still trying to get back to even for the nhl season after losing 5 units total ($50)...it's a grind.
Not many people can boast that kind of plus $ in sports betting...90% lose it all, as you probably know - so coming out ahead even $1 is doing well...probably doesn't make you feel better since you are used to winning - just trying to encourage you that you KNOW how to win and get back on the saddle after a rough stretch because you've been there before and done that.

[mickjam42]

Amazing what losing Rinne is doing to Pred's line.

I will not be in tonight, so I will be capping my own games here.


Rangers -1 @ +145 vs Columbus.
Canucks -103 Ml vs Carolina. (I am assuming Miller goes again, as he did not play Tuesday)
Pitt/Isles Under 5 @ +155

There ya go.

[positivebankroll]

Nj devil ml
chicago ml
nyi ml
columbus ml
vancuver ml

[cotes17]

Thanks fitguy! Appreciate the support

[cotes17]

Today

Pens ml +108 $100 to win $108
Pens/NYI O5.5 +111 $100 to win $111
Rangers -1 +135 $100 to win $135
Caps ml +102 $100 to win $102

[fitguy67]

faaak...i just submitted was +1.5, -278 by accident...instead of ml+102...

so now i don't need the caps to play well...just not shitty (but now I'm triple-staked against the top team in the league at home)...this is the kind of thing that'd never happen in the old days over the phone...

go Caps!

[cotes17]

faaak...i just submitted was +1.5, -278 by accident...instead of ml+102...

so now i don't need the caps to play well...just not shitty (but now I'm triple-staked against the top team in the league at home)...this is the kind of thing that'd never happen in the old days over the phone...

go Caps!

Playing a little bit of juice there lol they'll come through for you don't worry

[cotes17]

Yesterday

1-2-1 -$89

ytd: 189-165-27 +$4,225

[mickjam42]

Whatta choke job by Caps. Even without Rinne, Preds own their barn.

[mrginandtonic]

What do you guys think of STL, EDM and DET today?? STL is kinda obvious, but you never know. EDM has always played well against FLA and DET is at home and they have been well lately and NAS is in a B2B. These are my thoughts.

[amarius87]

Florida is better than most expect.. Plus they are at home. Luongo in my mind has helped the panthers plus if they lose it seems it's always in so/ot

Blues are a nice pick today and I think the wild... Phoenix is Phoenix

[smithah2]

always looking forward to your picks Cotes. like to compare it to mine and help weed out some bad picks i make. Thanks and waiting anxiously

[John Deere]

What's the play today?

[smithah2]

ahhh anything cotes?

[cotes17]

Sorry for late picks guys

Flyers -1 -102 $102 to win $100
Habs ml -108 $108 to win $100
Tampa -1 -114 $114 to win $100
Wild -1 -118 $118 to win $100
Red Wings -1 +119 $100 to win $119

[rustie]

Sorry for late picks guys

Flyers -1 -102 $102 to win $100
Habs ml -108 $108 to win $100
Tampa -1 -114 $114 to win $100
Wild -1 -118 $118 to win $100
Red Wings -1 +119 $100 to win $119

pretty good night i'd say

[cotes17]

Yesterday

3-0-2 +$319

ytd: 192-165-29 +$4,544

[cotes17]

Today

NFL
Packers +8.5 -106 $212 to win $200

[amarius87]

liking the packers pick! good luck!

[cotes17]

NHL
Pens -1 +137 $100 to win $137

[cotes17]

NFL
Patriots -7 -106 $159 to win $150

[cotes17]

Patriots -4 1st half +101 $100 to win $101

[mickjam42]

That was just one hell of a game!

I'm on the other side of you with Pats/Colts. As much as I think Gronkowski will probably dominate, I still think it will be tight. I like +7.

Regardless, BOL!

[cotes17]

That was just one hell of a game!

I'm on the other side of you with Pats/Colts. As much as I think Gronkowski will probably dominate, I still think it will be tight. I like +7.

Regardless, BOL!

I can't believe packers blew that game. They had it in the bag!

GL to you as well. Think gronk will do the usual and pats will have something up their sleeve for the colts

[mickjam42]

Well, it was tight, but the Pats squeaked it out in the end in a buzzer beater!

Nice call on 1st Half too.

[mickjam42]

Sorry, I tried to post today's Pearls Before Swine cartoon, where Pastis is just back from a visit to Montreal, sporting a Habs jersey and discussing poutine. It wouldn't post, but here is the link:

http://www.arcamax.com/thefunnies/pe...wine/s-1607372

[cotes17]

Yesterday

3-1-0 +$351

ytd: 195-166-29 +$4,895

[cotes17]

Today

Doing the early NHL game guys. Will add more for tonight

NYI -1 -120 $120 to win $100