The MLB Regular Season gets underway Thursday, March 30th. Get prepped for Opening Weekend with SBR's futures betting analysis:
World Series Odds
By: Sean Tomlinson
Contender: Padres (+1000 via FanDuel, Caesars)
"The Padres added Xander Bogaerts to a loaded roster. Putting him alongside Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and soon Fernando Tatis Jr. is simply terrifying.
Infielder Matt Carpenter brings further power and experience too. Toss in a pitching staff with a core of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove that finished with a 3.81 ERA in 2022, and the Padres have all the pieces to push the Dodgers in the NL West.
Jump on San Diego at +1000 while you still can."
MVP Odds
By: Neil Parker
MLB 2023 American League MVP best bets:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1500 via FanDuel) - Feb. 16
Eloy Jimenez (+10000 via BetMGM) - March 28
MLB 2023 National League MVP best bets:
Nolan Arenado (+2000 via FanDuel) - Feb. 16
Oneil Cruz (+20000 via FanDuel) - Feb. 16
Cy Young Odds
By: Sean Tomlinson
MLB 2023 American League Cy Young odds: Contender
Alek Manoah (+1200 via FanDuel)
"Manoah is equal parts charisma and mad pitching scientist, with the latter on display during the 2022 All-Star Game. Similar to Dylan Cease, he's ranked in the top 10 in hard-hit rate during each of his two seasons. He also posted a 31.8% whiff rate on his slider in 2022."
MLB 2023 National League Cy Young odds: Contender
Aaron Nola (+1300 via FanDuel)
"Nola deservedly wasn't far behind Max Fried in 2022 Cy Young voting while slotting in fourth. He earned that high perch after ranking fourth in WAR among pitchers (6.0), second in BB/9 (1.3), and seventh in WHIP (0.961). His curveball was especially deadly while generating a whiff rate of 39.4, contributing to a league-leading 8.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio."
ROY Odds
By: Andrew Brennan
MLB 2023 American League Rookie of the Year best bets:
Gunnar Henderson (+350 via Caesars) - Feb. 16, 2023
Masataka Yoshida (+1000 via BetMGM) - Feb. 16, 2023
MLB 2023 National League Rookie of the Year best bets:
Corbin Carroll (+400 via DraftKings) - Feb. 16, 2023
Ezequiel Tovar (+1200 via FanDuel) - Feb. 16, 2023
Jordan Walker (+550 via theScore Bet) - March 25, 2023
Home Run Leader Odds
By: Sean Tomlinson
MLB 2023 Home Run Leader odds best bets:
Pete Alonso, New York Mets, (+1200 via FanDuel) - Feb.22
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (+4000 via BetMGM) - Feb. 22
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres (+10000 via BetMGM) - Feb. 22
Hits Leader Odds
By: Sean Tomlinson
MLB 2023 hits leader odds: Contender
Rafael Devers (+2000 via Barstool)
"Devers missed 21 games in 2022, largely due to a midseason hamstring injury. Remember that and then look at his hits total: 164.That still put him in the top 20 leaguewide despite the time lost, and 12th in the American League. He hits for plenty of power but balances that out with contact too, which led to an .879 OPS in 2022 (eighth in MLB). Devers also isn't far removed from a .311 average in 2019 and finishing second with 201 hits.
There's lots of high-end quality contact in his bat, and he ranked in the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate in 2022. Getting his tools and production potential for +2000 feels like a mouth-watering bargain."
RBI Leader Odds
By: Neil Parker
MLB 2023 RBI leader best bets:
Pete Alonso (+800 via DraftKings) - March 2
Jose Ramirez (+2200 via PointsBet) - March 2
Manny Machado (+2800 via PointsBet) - March 2
Eloy Jimenez (+3500 via BetMGM) - March 2
Stolen Base Leader Odds
By: Andrew Brennan
MLB 2023 stolen base leader best bets:
Esteury Ruiz (+800 via Caesars) - March 6, 2023
Trea Turner (+2000 via Caesars) - March 6, 2023
Corbin Carroll (+4500 via PointsBet) - March 6, 2023
Wins Leader Odds
By: Neil Parker
MLB 2023 wins leader odds best bets:
Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers (+2500 via Caesars) - Feb. 24
Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays (+2800 via Caesars) - Feb. 24
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays (+4000 via BetMGM) - Feb. 24
Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres (+5000 via BetMGM) - Feb. 24
Strikeout Leader Odds
By: Andrew Brennan
MLB 2023 strikeout leader best bets:
Gerrit Cole (+575 via PointsBet) - Feb. 23, 2023
Brandon Woodruff (+3300 via PointsBet) - Feb. 23, 2023
Blake Snell (+5000 via PointsBet) - Feb. 23, 2023
Projected Win Totals and O/U Wins Odds
By: Neil Parker
NL win total projections
Braves (94.5)
Projected Braves wins total: 98
"Atlanta put 101 tallies in the wins column last season, and the Braves are rightfully trading among the betting favorites by the World Series odds. The lineup, starting rotation, and bullpen are all stocked with talent and depth. In fact, there’s a strong case Atlanta enters 2023 with a better and more complete team than the 2022 version. The offense will receive a boost with outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and second baseman Ozzie Albies starting the season fully healthy. Expecting an uptick in production from first baseman Matt Olson during his second tour through the NL isn’t out of the question, either."
Pick: Braves Over 94.5 wins (-110 via Caesars)
AL win total projections
White Sox (82.5)
Projected White Sox wins total: 85
"There’s a strong case that the Pale Hose were the most disappointing team in 2022, and Chicago also lost a franchise cornerstone in first baseman Jose Abreu during the offseason. Still, the AL Central is far from a who’s who of World Series contenders, and there aren’t many weaknesses on the Chicago roster. Ace Dylan Cease is a Cy Young candidate, and the rest of the rotation is eyeing statistical correction after collectively under performing last season. Additionally, if first-year White Sox righty Mike Clevinger can find his pre-Tommy John form, this staff could do the heavy lifting on the South Side."
Pick: White Sox Over 82.5 wins (-105 via DraftKings)
Home Run Props
By: James Bisson
MLB 2023 home run prop picks:
Aaron Judge Over 42.5 home runs (-120)
My projection: 45 home runs
"This isn't just a big number, but it's easily the biggest of any player in baseball in 2023. And believe it or not, it still isn't high enough.
Judge smashed expectations en route to setting the American League single-season home-run record, but his overall approach at the plate wasn't all that different than in previous seasons. His hard-hit rate was up only slightly, and while his HR/FB percentage was on the high side at 35.6%, he had reached that plateau twice before in his career.His ungodly 26.2% barrel rate likely won't be repeated, I'm a big believer that the boost in fly-ball rate (from 35.5% to 43.5%) will carry over. And even a dip to 40% should keep Judge firmly in the 50-homer discussion, which is a lot of cushion for this Over play."
Byron Buxton Under 28.5 home runs (-113)
My projection: 25.5 home runs
"Projecting Byron Buxton goes well beyond looking at the power potential he finally realized during his baseball-mashing exhibition in 2022.I want to believe this will be the season Buxton avoids all physical calamities and gets to 550 plate appearances for the first time ever. The outfielder showed he doesn't even need that many to reach this total after hitting 28 home runs over just 382 plate appearances in 2022.
Still, Buxton has exceeded 400 plate appearances just once in his career. He turned 29 in December. His lack of plate discipline, declining contact rates, and extreme-pull tendencies are all concerns. I can't see a path to him setting new playing-time standards, and as a general rule, a player this at risk for injury is an ideal Under candidate. Add it all up, and that's my play here."
What are your favorite futures bets going into this season? Comment below!
World Series Odds
By: Sean Tomlinson
Contender: Padres (+1000 via FanDuel, Caesars)
"The Padres added Xander Bogaerts to a loaded roster. Putting him alongside Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and soon Fernando Tatis Jr. is simply terrifying.
Infielder Matt Carpenter brings further power and experience too. Toss in a pitching staff with a core of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove that finished with a 3.81 ERA in 2022, and the Padres have all the pieces to push the Dodgers in the NL West.
Jump on San Diego at +1000 while you still can."
MVP Odds
By: Neil Parker
MLB 2023 American League MVP best bets:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1500 via FanDuel) - Feb. 16
Eloy Jimenez (+10000 via BetMGM) - March 28
MLB 2023 National League MVP best bets:
Nolan Arenado (+2000 via FanDuel) - Feb. 16
Oneil Cruz (+20000 via FanDuel) - Feb. 16
Cy Young Odds
By: Sean Tomlinson
MLB 2023 American League Cy Young odds: Contender
Alek Manoah (+1200 via FanDuel)
"Manoah is equal parts charisma and mad pitching scientist, with the latter on display during the 2022 All-Star Game. Similar to Dylan Cease, he's ranked in the top 10 in hard-hit rate during each of his two seasons. He also posted a 31.8% whiff rate on his slider in 2022."
MLB 2023 National League Cy Young odds: Contender
Aaron Nola (+1300 via FanDuel)
"Nola deservedly wasn't far behind Max Fried in 2022 Cy Young voting while slotting in fourth. He earned that high perch after ranking fourth in WAR among pitchers (6.0), second in BB/9 (1.3), and seventh in WHIP (0.961). His curveball was especially deadly while generating a whiff rate of 39.4, contributing to a league-leading 8.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio."
ROY Odds
By: Andrew Brennan
MLB 2023 American League Rookie of the Year best bets:
Gunnar Henderson (+350 via Caesars) - Feb. 16, 2023
Masataka Yoshida (+1000 via BetMGM) - Feb. 16, 2023
MLB 2023 National League Rookie of the Year best bets:
Corbin Carroll (+400 via DraftKings) - Feb. 16, 2023
Ezequiel Tovar (+1200 via FanDuel) - Feb. 16, 2023
Jordan Walker (+550 via theScore Bet) - March 25, 2023
Home Run Leader Odds
By: Sean Tomlinson
MLB 2023 Home Run Leader odds best bets:
Pete Alonso, New York Mets, (+1200 via FanDuel) - Feb.22
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (+4000 via BetMGM) - Feb. 22
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres (+10000 via BetMGM) - Feb. 22
Hits Leader Odds
By: Sean Tomlinson
MLB 2023 hits leader odds: Contender
Rafael Devers (+2000 via Barstool)
"Devers missed 21 games in 2022, largely due to a midseason hamstring injury. Remember that and then look at his hits total: 164.That still put him in the top 20 leaguewide despite the time lost, and 12th in the American League. He hits for plenty of power but balances that out with contact too, which led to an .879 OPS in 2022 (eighth in MLB). Devers also isn't far removed from a .311 average in 2019 and finishing second with 201 hits.
There's lots of high-end quality contact in his bat, and he ranked in the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate in 2022. Getting his tools and production potential for +2000 feels like a mouth-watering bargain."
RBI Leader Odds
By: Neil Parker
MLB 2023 RBI leader best bets:
Pete Alonso (+800 via DraftKings) - March 2
Jose Ramirez (+2200 via PointsBet) - March 2
Manny Machado (+2800 via PointsBet) - March 2
Eloy Jimenez (+3500 via BetMGM) - March 2
Stolen Base Leader Odds
By: Andrew Brennan
MLB 2023 stolen base leader best bets:
Esteury Ruiz (+800 via Caesars) - March 6, 2023
Trea Turner (+2000 via Caesars) - March 6, 2023
Corbin Carroll (+4500 via PointsBet) - March 6, 2023
Wins Leader Odds
By: Neil Parker
MLB 2023 wins leader odds best bets:
Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers (+2500 via Caesars) - Feb. 24
Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays (+2800 via Caesars) - Feb. 24
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays (+4000 via BetMGM) - Feb. 24
Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres (+5000 via BetMGM) - Feb. 24
Strikeout Leader Odds
By: Andrew Brennan
MLB 2023 strikeout leader best bets:
Gerrit Cole (+575 via PointsBet) - Feb. 23, 2023
Brandon Woodruff (+3300 via PointsBet) - Feb. 23, 2023
Blake Snell (+5000 via PointsBet) - Feb. 23, 2023
Projected Win Totals and O/U Wins Odds
By: Neil Parker
NL win total projections
Braves (94.5)
Projected Braves wins total: 98
"Atlanta put 101 tallies in the wins column last season, and the Braves are rightfully trading among the betting favorites by the World Series odds. The lineup, starting rotation, and bullpen are all stocked with talent and depth. In fact, there’s a strong case Atlanta enters 2023 with a better and more complete team than the 2022 version. The offense will receive a boost with outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and second baseman Ozzie Albies starting the season fully healthy. Expecting an uptick in production from first baseman Matt Olson during his second tour through the NL isn’t out of the question, either."
Pick: Braves Over 94.5 wins (-110 via Caesars)
AL win total projections
White Sox (82.5)
Projected White Sox wins total: 85
"There’s a strong case that the Pale Hose were the most disappointing team in 2022, and Chicago also lost a franchise cornerstone in first baseman Jose Abreu during the offseason. Still, the AL Central is far from a who’s who of World Series contenders, and there aren’t many weaknesses on the Chicago roster. Ace Dylan Cease is a Cy Young candidate, and the rest of the rotation is eyeing statistical correction after collectively under performing last season. Additionally, if first-year White Sox righty Mike Clevinger can find his pre-Tommy John form, this staff could do the heavy lifting on the South Side."
Pick: White Sox Over 82.5 wins (-105 via DraftKings)
Home Run Props
By: James Bisson
MLB 2023 home run prop picks:
Aaron Judge Over 42.5 home runs (-120)
My projection: 45 home runs
"This isn't just a big number, but it's easily the biggest of any player in baseball in 2023. And believe it or not, it still isn't high enough.
Judge smashed expectations en route to setting the American League single-season home-run record, but his overall approach at the plate wasn't all that different than in previous seasons. His hard-hit rate was up only slightly, and while his HR/FB percentage was on the high side at 35.6%, he had reached that plateau twice before in his career.His ungodly 26.2% barrel rate likely won't be repeated, I'm a big believer that the boost in fly-ball rate (from 35.5% to 43.5%) will carry over. And even a dip to 40% should keep Judge firmly in the 50-homer discussion, which is a lot of cushion for this Over play."
Byron Buxton Under 28.5 home runs (-113)
My projection: 25.5 home runs
"Projecting Byron Buxton goes well beyond looking at the power potential he finally realized during his baseball-mashing exhibition in 2022.I want to believe this will be the season Buxton avoids all physical calamities and gets to 550 plate appearances for the first time ever. The outfielder showed he doesn't even need that many to reach this total after hitting 28 home runs over just 382 plate appearances in 2022.
Still, Buxton has exceeded 400 plate appearances just once in his career. He turned 29 in December. His lack of plate discipline, declining contact rates, and extreme-pull tendencies are all concerns. I can't see a path to him setting new playing-time standards, and as a general rule, a player this at risk for injury is an ideal Under candidate. Add it all up, and that's my play here."
What are your favorite futures bets going into this season? Comment below!
