[dice]

Vegas and online books usually have the number correct. Betting against the spread and winning is simply winning due to variability and luck. Sports betting has become an efficient market. Don't try to consistently beat the number over the long term with today's lines. It's not going to happen. Books know this.

[Justin7]

Yep. Just like trying to predict if it will randomly rain the next day, or what the over/under on a high temperature will be. It can't be done! Give up now!

[thekid667]

Well this is very discouraging to hear.Are you trying to say its impossible to be profitable by betting only the spread?

[HauntingTheHoly]

Yep. Just like trying to predict if it will randomly rain the next day, or what the over/under on a high temperature will be. It can't be done! Give up now!

Thank you. I'm leaving right now and never coming back!

[suicidekings]

Vegas and online books usually have the number correct. Betting against the spread and winning is simply winning due to variability and luck. Sports betting has become an efficient market. Don't try to consistently beat the number over the long term with today's lines. It's not going to happen. Books know this.

Just because you can't do something doesn't mean it can't be done...

[dice]

Yep, it can't be done, and Vegas knows this. The only way to win is to steam or middle according to JJ. And I've never known a meteorologist who is consistently right about the weather in my area. The weather is always scattered and unpredictable... due to variance.

[gryfyn1]

But that the point you don't need to be right 100% of the time... if meterologists got -110 lines on whether is was going fo rain or not they'd be rich

[vyomguy]

pick your spots...thats the key

There are many games in a month where its easy money to be made. Just have to pick right spots.

People who bet lot of games will lose in long term.

[ouman101]

Yep, it can't be done, and Vegas knows this. The only way to win is to steam or middle according to JJ. And I've never known a meteorologist who is consistently right about the weather in my area. The weather is always scattered and unpredictable... due to variance.

If the Meteorologist is hitting 55%, then he's winning

[str]

Yep, it can't be done, and Vegas knows this. The only way to win is to steam or middle according to JJ. And I've never known a meteorologist who is consistently right about the weather in my area. The weather is always scattered and unpredictable... due to variance.

[RudyRuetigger]

this guy has it all figured out!!

GIVE UP NOW!!!!

[dice]

Okay, okay. My point is that Books set the spreads using statistics and historical trends. Then the open market may adjust the spread even more, making it efficient. There is simply too much information out there, and the overall consensus is usually the closing spread before a game starts. When you add variance into this number, it is highly unlikely that anyone can "consistently" beat the spread. It's not like it was when Billy Walters was making most of his money several years ago when the spread was less accurate.

[WileOut]

pick your spots...thats the key

There are many games in a month where its easy money to be made. Just have to pick right spots.

People who bet lot of games will lose in long term.

I agree with this except I would add that the general public will lose if they bet a lot of games. They have no chance. The general public has to have control and bet very few games, for a higher percentage of their bankroll to have any shot of long term success.

The guys that can find an edge of course should bet as many games as possible using kelly or some variation of kelly.

[pavyracer]

Beating the closing line is extremely important. Most times the opening line, especially early in the season, is not set based on adequate data and many times is adjusted by betting volume. So if you don't beat the closing line and bet on a bad number after the line movement you haven't done your homework.

[wantitall4moi]

its simple math, in spread based sports you are paying more than even money to bet something that basically has an even money chance of happening. I know guys claim to have all sorts of edges and whatnot, but in the end the guys that show a profit are the ones that get lucky more often than not, and usually on games they have more than their usual amount bet on.

The simple proof to this is if they lined every single NFL game -3 and just adjusted the vig books would make a killing. Because obviously some game should be more than 3, but that doesnt mean the results will show that. So say a team should be -6 or -7, that team is -3 -150. Looks like a deal. But if the game was lined -3 people wouldnt know if it were a trap or not, and no one would pay -150 even if they thought it was supposed to be -6 or -7. (thats psychology not math) But psychology obviously plays into it. SO if they lined every game -3, then you would be seeing about a 16% push rate or so. At least that has been the results since 1989 874 games of 5451 have ended with one team winning by 3 points. So that gives you 85% to work with, the psychology factor, the luck factor, the adjusted vig and so on.

Just because a team is favored by 3 doesnt mean much. Just like it doesnt mean much if a team is favored by 10 or more. The only real issue would be how the books handled money lines.

Bottomline is math doesnt mean much in sports betting, unless you think that one of these extremely complex algorithms created to predict the probability of worldwide disasters or terrorist attacks will work. Math is best used to add up your wins and losses. Anything else is guesswork at best.

Past results dont predict future probability at least in sports. I have one of the most thorough databases around, and I have run every conceivable parameter and it just doesnt work. Mostly because the sample size, (even going back to 1989, actually 1994 when they put the 2 pt conversion back in) is just way too small. So you might see something that is 16-0, but is that enough to give it that big an edge? Guys who play trends and angles can tell you the answer to that one.

The only real way to make money consistently and long term is to basically become the book, as in, getting money both ways so as to insure a profits. Not easy to do especially in this day and age. Which basically reiterates what some have said, the 'market' is too immediate to find edges. But not edges in a number, but edges in the ability to get the best of both sides.

[SpreadSniper]

Just because you can't do something doesn't mean it can't be done...

Not sure what all this talk about "luck" is?? Some of us who actually cap games form hypothesis based on trends, passed and current events, player injuries, travel time, altitude, previous matchups, wheter a team partied the night before etc....

To say it is blind luck is somewhat insulting to those of us who hit at a good clip and actually put some time into this.

Good luck with your dart board.... why are you even here?

[brad89]

pick your spots...thats the key There are many games in a month where its easy money to be made. Just have to pick right spots. People who bet lot of games will lose in long term.

Wouldn't your many games per month add up to a lot of games in the long term?

[sapidoc]

waaaaat

[emoney]

I love listening to these guys talk about "capping" games.

Do they really think they found something that Vegas missed when they set the line?

[Rich Boy]

Yep. Just like trying to predict if it will randomly rain the next day, or what the over/under on a high temperature will be. It can't be done! Give up now!

Really?

[Justin7]

its simple math, in spread based sports you are paying more than even money to bet something that basically has an even money chance of happening. I know guys claim to have all sorts of edges and whatnot, but in the end the guys that show a profit are the ones that get lucky more often than not, and usually on games they have more than their usual amount bet on.

The simple proof to this is if they lined every single NFL game -3 and just adjusted the vig books would make a killing. Because obviously some game should be more than 3, but that doesnt mean the results will show that. So say a team should be -6 or -7, that team is -3 -150. Looks like a deal. But if the game was lined -3 people wouldnt know if it were a trap or not, and no one would pay -150 even if they thought it was supposed to be -6 or -7. (thats psychology not math) But psychology obviously plays into it. SO if they lined every game -3, then you would be seeing about a 16% push rate or so. At least that has been the results since 1989 874 games of 5451 have ended with one team winning by 3 points. So that gives you 85% to work with, the psychology factor, the luck factor, the adjusted vig and so on.

Just because a team is favored by 3 doesnt mean much. Just like it doesnt mean much if a team is favored by 10 or more. The only real issue would be how the books handled money lines.

Bottomline is math doesnt mean much in sports betting, unless you think that one of these extremely complex algorithms created to predict the probability of worldwide disasters or terrorist attacks will work. Math is best used to add up your wins and losses. Anything else is guesswork at best.

Past results dont predict future probability at least in sports. I have one of the most thorough databases around, and I have run every conceivable parameter and it just doesnt work. Mostly because the sample size, (even going back to 1989, actually 1994 when they put the 2 pt conversion back in) is just way too small. So you might see something that is 16-0, but is that enough to give it that big an edge? Guys who play trends and angles can tell you the answer to that one.

The only real way to make money consistently and long term is to basically become the book, as in, getting money both ways so as to insure a profits. Not easy to do especially in this day and age. Which basically reiterates what some have said, the 'market' is too immediate to find edges. But not edges in a number, but edges in the ability to get the best of both sides.

This is perhaps the most well-articulated EPIC FAIL I have ever read.

If you're serious about winning at sports betting, remove this post from your knowledge.

[Justin7]

Really?

It is sometimes hard to express sarcasm in posts. If I failed to communicate, please treat that post as extremely sarcastic.

[Rich Boy]

It is sometimes hard to express sarcasm in posts. If I failed to communicate, please treat that post as extremely sarcastic.

What's sarcasm?

[DemoralizdDreamr]

pick your spots...thats the key

There are many games in a month where its easy money to be made. Just have to pick right spots.

People who bet lot of games will lose in long term.

[clip1]

ok that was it for me now I can retire

[sneak-a-peak]

set a labby line for every team

you will eventually get hot

[brumbies]

What's sarcasm?

sar·casm

[sahr-kaz-uhm] Show IPA
–noun

1. harsh or bitter derision or irony.

2. a sharply ironical taunt; sneering or cutting remark: a review full of sarcasms.

thanks to dictionary.com

[Full Time Hobo]

This is perhaps the most well-articulated EPIC FAIL I have ever read.

If you're serious about winning at sports betting, remove this post from your knowledge.

[kingdom]

i have come to the realization i don't gamble for financial gain. it is a rush i can't get anywhere, including a poker table. i play parlays and teasers because i love big hits. i have actually lost quit a few thousands. i used to save my w.u. forms but would never allow myself to tally it. but on the nights of big wins, i remember almost every one of them. no feeling to me like betting 20 bux and turning it into 700.or 50 into 1k. i don't wanna grind it out and beat the lines at 54%. i make enough money working and this is my guilty pleasure. if i can blow that money at a strip club/bar, i can blow it trying to multiply as well.

[cappingsports]

Ever looked into doing player projections? Is the past 3 seasons of player data a better predictor of future performance than the past 10 games of the current season? Ever looked into offensive and defensive efficiency of players? Ever looked into estimating the amount of time a player will spend on the field of play? Ever looked into ways of separating an individual's performance from the rest of their teammates in a more effective manner? Ever looked into the individual value of a certain event in a game and how it impacts on scoring? Ever looked into how playing time of an injured player is distributed amongst the rest of their teammates? What is the value of a half point on a spread? Is -125 at -6 better than -105 at -6.5?

There are so many more things you can look into too....the possibilities are endless. The level of detail you can go into in each sport is just amazing. Very few people actually delve deep enough into the sports they betting, to get the most accurate predictions. Your best investment is the time you put into studying your sport and developing your models.

Learn to ask questions and learn to research for answers. You'll find what you want to know if you really look hard enough, assuming you have the available data to look through.

You can most definitely win at sports betting.

[unusialsusp5]

is this the think tank spilling over into players talk..those EV math geeks should be lined up and shot...no one really cares if they win that much as long as they have action...this is not new info, that you can't win betting a ton of games, but if you have a lot of money what else do you do with it..buy municipal bonds...

[dice]

Agreed, mods please remove this post. It was not my intention to show that most bettors win between 40 - 60% ATS for top tier games. Yes, winning 60% can be prosperous. But how much do you take home after you pay the juice and taxes? It all depends on two variables: (1) the size of your bankroll; and (2) if a book will accept your bets.

Btw, I believe that smart people can win at sports betting. Thank you for the opinions.

[dynamite140]

everything is pretty close to call

[mtneer1212]

Actually ATS should be finding edges where it is less likely luck comes into play.

[rm18]

There are still lines off by double digits out there, a few years ago there was a line off by 35 points.(OSU at Washington St.)


But it is true the spreads are more efficient than half and quarters and props though the lower the limit less efficient usually.