Minnesota Vikings +1
Typical overreaction game. Thursday night we all saw how good Oakland looked against the Chargers. I had Raiders +7 that game but still wasn't really impressed. They made the big plays when they needed to but that game should have been put to bed way earlier. Carson still doesn't look like he did in his prime and I think people are now considering the Raiders as AFC West contenders mostly because of him. This running game is overrated by the way, especially without McFadden. The yardage numbers will always be there because thats what happens when you give 30+ carries to your running back. Michael Bush broke a few big ones but still didn't run it all that well on a down to down basis. His 150+ yards were a bit deceiving on his 30 carries. Not to mention Minnesota is still a good run defense. They are allowing just 79 rushing yards per game at home this season. Too many key players are banged up. Even the ones who will probably play will be dealing with injuries. Rolondo McClain, Richard Seymour, and Michael Huff are three key defensive players who will probably all play through their injuries. But what they miss without guys like Darren McFadden and Jacoby Ford on the field can't be made up. Both guys have the ability to turn a routine play into a huge touchdown which is basically what the Raiders have feasted on this year.
In the meantime we have another over reaction to the Vikings Monday Night loss everyone saw. Christian Ponder didn't look as terrible as he could have in Green Bay on a Monday night against the best team in football. The Vikings found themselves in a deep hole only allowing AP 14 carries and any quarterback will struggle against this defense when they can pin their ears back and rush the quarterback, The thing that impressed me most about him was his demeanor. Even though nothing was really going their way Ponder continued to peel himself off the ground and absorb the hits after the throw. I have to say I was wrong about him. I watched him for years in college and was never really impressed but I think this kid could end up with a solid career in his future. Oakland has given up 130+ rushing yards per game this year and if AP gets going it takes everything off of Ponder and it will allow you to see the Vikings game plan actually come together. I also liked the way they are starting to incorporate Percy Harvin into the backfield and really trying to get him the ball as many times as they can. Sure the defensive backfield is thin but against receivers who are just going to try to outrun you it is hard to get burnt on a consistent basis in this league.
Bottom Line
-Good Matchup for Vikings
-Public overreacting to National TV games
-2/3 of the money coming in on Oak yet line has sunk to -1
-West Coast coming to play a 1:00 start (overrated aspect but some teams are still effected)
Prediction
AP has a good day, Vikings D stuffs running game, Ponder is efficient and Vikes walk out with an important W in developing this team.
Get on it or fade it. Good luck.
**** JJ Gold.