[Neek762]

Originally posted on 02/14/2024:

I honestly think you are tweaking the model too much after each day. There will always always always be variance and I think you are trying to eliminate variance, which is eliminating picks. I think whatever you were doing back when you were producing 5-10 picks was working the best. From there, it seemed like you kept changing things, and as you kept changing things, the amount of picks steadily decreased. It will be hard to make anything of all of the work you've done if it's producing one play or less a day! I think you simplify a little bit and record all of the wagers and results and see what the results are around 500 picks before you make any changes.

[jamesrav]

Originally posted on 02/14/2024:

I honestly think you are tweaking the model too much after each day. There will always always always be variance and I think you are trying to eliminate variance, which is eliminating picks. I think whatever you were doing back when you were producing 5-10 picks was working the best. From there, it seemed like you kept changing things, and as you kept changing things, the amount of picks steadily decreased. It will be hard to make anything of all of the work you've done if it's producing one play or less a day! I think you simplify a little bit and record all of the wagers and results and see what the results are around 500 picks before you make any changes.

this should be gospel for modelling, if it needs constant tinkering to correct things (past results) it's either still in the process of being analyzed and hopefully finalized (but should not be bet until more hypothetical results are gathered) or the modeler is trying to fit data to results (overfitting, which is never a good idea). In reading about Alan Woods and Bill Benter with respect to horse racing, they had a very successful model and left it alone. When results suddenly went out of whack, they discovered the track had changed something, and that required the model to be adjusted. A model can never match reality, its a vast simplification of reality. What one hopes is that the model is better than somebody else's model (in the case of NCAA Basketball, the Vegas opening line).