Originally posted on 04/15/2023:

Great stuff thanks. I agree with a lot of it, but playing devil's advocate.

Suns, sure they are loaded with Durant and Booker. A very good center in Ayton when he shows up. Paul is ok, 38 years old. Is Paul or Durant going to get injured-Durant slated for 40+ minutes. BUT-their achilles heel is the rest of the guys past the big 4-Craiug and the bench is not going to win them any playoff games. Paul and Durant are gonna need to win series early, and get rest, KD is already 34 and Paul hitting old man at 38.

Kings too green. Lakers-you got LeBron and Brow, some good role players in Schroder and Reaves.

Agree there's no way Murray is getting the MVP, it's Jokic or the Nuggets are going nowhere. Chris Paul, if the voters have a heart-huuge longshot-but at +130 you never know if these people will cry for State Farm guy. I doubt it. They are not winning a title off the back of Chris Paul, period. Jayson Tatum, price is pretty much the same as Celtics title, and they're most probably not giving him the MVP without the title-though they talked about it last year.

For me I have the following,unfortunately:
Nets Eastern Conference + Nets title
Clippers conference + title

Didn't wait until the end of the season-bad luck and bad picks.

So, I figured I'm not doing any more title picks, since I already have 2.

So, I'm going series for now, until my bad title picks officially end. I have:
Atlanta +650 over the Celtics: Coaches, Brown, Value. Atlanta has been about .500 under new coach Quin Snyder, but there's no denying has solid experience as head coach of the Jazz, and the team seems to be turning around, as the players are starting to buy into the new system. Reports were the team, including Trae Young, dismissed McMillan-true or not who knows. Everyone knows the Hawks have the talent to compete, and imo the talent to compete with the Cetics-they just for whatever reason have yet to put it together-but under the new coach maybe they will find a groove. We're talking 2 teams that are scoring machines-the Celtics are not going to be able to just runaway, shoot a couple 3s, and the Hawks will give up, as is often the case in the Garden. Celtics coach Mazzulla has 0 experience as a head coach in the playoffs. Jaylen Brown has been trade meat this season, and he's heading to free agency. Bottom line-of course the Celtics should be favored, of course I'd pick the Celtics-BUT-at +650?? Give me the Hawks and a shot in the dark.

Nets +600 over 6ers. Doc Rivers, Nets deep, Embiid. Doc Rivers has been fade material in the playoffs. Sure he rode the Celtics to glory-but that was with Paul Pierce, a great clutch shooter who can finish a game no matter who the coach is. He's had disastrous series, one after another. Why can't it happen again. He opened up his mouth just a few days ago-and blamed the CLIPPERS if you can believe it for his disastrous postseason coaching history there. The Nets are a deep team. Their best player though is Bridges, which is saying something-they don't have a true superstar. And their achilles heel is finishing games, and holding leads. But, raw talent-wise, despite losing Durant and Irving, by gaining DFS Dinwiddie Bridges and Cam Johnson, they can compete. Embiid-what are the chances this guy gets injured again? He's been healthy pretty much all season-but that could change fast. Nets would have issues with centers like the Bux Yannis, or the Celtics Williams-strong guys, because Claxton is a shot blocker but he is not a strong guy-and their backup Sharpe is way too green for anything. Embiid may have blew his load scoring 50 against the Celtics and getting the MVP. Harden is a good player but simply not the dominating guy he used to be. Bottom line-SAME reason taking Hawks-value. Do I believe the 6ers most likely win the series? Of course. But at +600? Give me the shot in the dark.

So not a whole lot of risk with the 2 series plays, but not a good chance of return either. But if it does hit-nice return.

People could say-why don't you just play it game-by-game, you'd make more. Maybe could be good point. But.... I don't have time for game-by-game in the football season. And I only do brick and mortar.