Originally posted on 09/07/2022:

Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
Shot, hope you're doing well. Hope life is good for you.

My two cents on this game and NFL in general:
*We know NFL is a small-margin game. IF anyone can carve out Net Profit on NFL...it can't be a big ROI.

Lines are too sharp. +5% ROI would be the HIGHEST I'd ever give anyone credit for.

That said, let's break down this particular game:
1) How could the Bills POSSIBLY be HIGHER than -2.5? We're talking about Road Fav versus defending Super Bowl champ? If the -2.5 is solid as one of Bills' toughest road games on schedule...then public is saying the Bills are threat to go undefeated (or at least 15-2 or better).
2) My belief is that a +EV NFL bettor will have +2.5 (+100 or better) in his pocket. And if that's true, I believe the closing line will be shorter. Ergo, +2.5 (+100) will have BTCL value.

Aaron Donald is supposed to be an all-timer. Has he fallen off at all? Rams have to be value at current #, imho. I believe that closing # will that that +2.5 is better than a 50/50 proposition. I'll call for Bills to close lighter, around -1.
Any time you get up in the morning.... life is good. Isn't that the saying?

Thanks for the write up and your input!

Watching Stafford play for numerous years here in Detroit... all I can say is.... to me... he's just an average QB. You can blame it on the shi##y coaching and play calling in Detroit... or even the players around him. But his numbers have always been inflated due to Detroit trailing in most of the games... always having to throw to get back into the game... etc. I must be a harsh critic... but he's not even Top 10 in the NFL. Yes, he won a Super Bowl. Probably deserves a Championship after playing for a sh## squad like the Lions year after year.

As for Buffalo.... all I can remember is that ridiculous high scoring game against Kansas City. Like... it knocked the wind right out of Buffalo. Head coach should of been fired. So who wants it more this year?

I heard Stafford was shooting commercials for Little Caesars Pizza all Summer. So he's the new spokesperson.... you should be seeing most of them this Sunday. After a Championship.... how bad do you want to repeat? My gut feeling is... L.A. Rams really aren't "championship" great. Yes... they won. Awesome Cinderella story for Stafford... and Donald. And Buffalo just doesn't know how to SEAL THE DEAL. Always so close... but just short. They need to prove they can win CLOSE GAMES.

We'll see what happens.

Always great seeing you Chucky... Wish you luck this year in Football! Get em!