Originally Posted by
ChuckyTheGoat
Shot, hope you're doing well. Hope life is good for you.
My two cents on this game and NFL in general:
*We know NFL is a small-margin game. IF anyone can carve out Net Profit on NFL...it can't be a big ROI.
Lines are too sharp. +5% ROI would be the HIGHEST I'd ever give anyone credit for.
That said, let's break down this particular game:
1) How could the Bills POSSIBLY be HIGHER than -2.5? We're talking about Road Fav versus defending Super Bowl champ? If the -2.5 is solid as one of Bills' toughest road games on schedule...then public is saying the Bills are threat to go undefeated (or at least 15-2 or better).
2) My belief is that a +EV NFL bettor will have +2.5 (+100 or better) in his pocket. And if that's true, I believe the closing line will be shorter. Ergo, +2.5 (+100) will have BTCL value.
Aaron Donald is supposed to be an all-timer. Has he fallen off at all? Rams have to be value at current #, imho. I believe that closing # will that that +2.5 is better than a 50/50 proposition. I'll call for Bills to close lighter, around -1.