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Originally posted on 07/30/2021:

Does First Captain win again today in the Curlin at Saratoga?

The short answer is he probably will. He is hard to bet against with all that potential upside. But honestly, if it was me, I would most likely pass the race and learn from it. There are plenty of questions that need to be answered as to handling 2 turns for the first time. Todd's horse might not be as good, but he is much more seasoned than this guy. That and, we know that Shug is the ultimate old school, take it slow, guy. That is IMO such a great and harder to find every year trait that I really like to see. Fans should really appreciate that as it points to developing great long term talent. I sure do. It's how I was taught, albeit with lesser stock but the same fundamental theory.

Plenty of pace in here and one question will be, where is he sitting when they straighten away down the backside? He could be closer but the Shug factor probably wants him laying 4th ? or even 5th?. Just not sure. Also not sure about the surface. If it's muddy, yes, the horse can handle that he has shown, and being by Curlin, he should, but what about the kickback of mud, if it is muddy? How will he handle that? When he ran in the mud, it doesn't look like he had to deal with that. I'm not sure though, and a replay would tell that story.
The answers to all these are he probably handles everything fine and draws off as expected. But if that is the case, the reward is 4.60? or less?

I guess because I was there every day for decades, sitting out a race was never a problem because I saw damn near every one. For the fan, I cannot expect them to feel the same way. I get that.
So I won't be critical if anybody bets on him or takes a shot against. Heck, somebody will be right. But when I settle for 7-5 or less, I personally don't want to have to leave several important questions on the table when they are loading into the gate. It seems to me that that would be the case. So while I can say yes, he probably wins, I would pass and wait for a better situation albeit on this card or the next one.
I know, I'm no fun when it comes to betting. Lol. That is true. I'm selective. And I have turned it into a must make money long term event in my mind. That's really no fun. But, over a ton of time, that's what I personally have turned all sports betting into.

But don't let me spoil the party Steve. Enjoy the day and the race.

Thanks for checking in, good luck, and thank you for the kind words in regards to my son. I really appreciated that.