Originally posted on 04/23/2021:

Quote Originally Posted by JoeCool20 View Post
LOL You don't know that the game(s) he was playing were +EV or not! You only know HE came out on the plus side!

Because you only have HIS results & not ALL the results from ALL the players spins during that period of time!!


Your "standard deviation" figures and coin flip percentages are based on ONE person doing it!

But HE wasn't the only one playing the slots at their casino! Hundreds of people were probably playing at same time.

If 100 different people flip a coin 100 times then some of them might get 80 - 20 heads tails ratio while somebody

else got 20-80 heads tails ratio, some would get 70-30 heads while others got 30-70, thus making ALL the flips together

come out near the expected results. It wasn't JUST HIM playing those slots! A lot of other people were playing too.

So How do you know that other players weren't losing huge on the same game while he was winning huge at it?

You have to put together ALL the other players combined spins along with his spins during the 9 months to see whether

the casino made or lost money OVERALL. They may have made exactly what the expected return was from all the spins

combined! You can't just look at one players results! Others may have been losing almost EVERY spin while he was

winning! Thus making the combined win/loss results from ALL players exactly what the casino should be expecting!
Statistically, it does not matter if it was only him doing it or many players.

Let's take a different example. Let's say someone you know flipped a coin 1,000 times and it came up heads all 1,000 times. You'd probably suspect that the coin and/or his flipping motion were rigged, right? You wouldn't say "Well, his 1,000 heads are probably balanced out by 1,000 tails some guy in China just flipped." That would be preposterous. Same principle here. The numbers are the numbers.