Originally Posted by
milwaukee mike
it opened at -300 or so on the no... people hit the yes because in the playoffs someone is more likely to go for 2 than a regular season game... these prop lines bounce around so much you can't consider that a bad line.
i just went back to week 17 of the regular season
mia/buff NONE ATTEMPTED
det/gb NONE ATTEMPTED
nyj/ne NONE ATTEMPTED
car/no NONE ATTEMPTED
dal/nyg YES (2/2)
atl/tb NO failed (0/2)
jax/houst NONE ATTEMPTED
sd/denver NO failed (0/1)
oak/kc NONE ATTEMPTED
sf/lar YES (1/1)
chi/min YES (1/1)
cin/pitt NONE ATTEMPTED
az/sea YES (1/1)
phil/wash NONE ATTEMPTED
cle/balt NONE ATTEMPTED
ind/tenn NONE ATTEMPTED
so including the playoffs and the final week of the regular season, we have
NONE ATTEMPTED 13 GAMES
YES SUCCESSFUL 2 PT CONVERSION 8 GAMES
NO, ATTEMPTED YET FAILED 2 PT CONVERSION 3 GAMES
so under the proper grading you would have 16 wins on the NO and 8 wins on the YES... putting a pretty fair price on no at -250 (true odds of -200)
under how justbet graded this, you would have 13 cancelled bets, 8 wins on the YES and 3 wins on the NO, putting fair odds at yes -300 and no +250