-
Comment -
So the juice was -123 by the time I put my daughter to bed on 48. So that held me back from doing something stupid likely. I was going to, but backed off.Triv, hoping you are pulling our leg here bro. But if not, hey, I have been there and wish you the best tonight bro
. Risking overstepping here, but, it's dangerous exposing your BR like that in the long run, especially with a ton of season left and the tendency for LTA's system to get sharper as the season unwinds......riding the over with ya, lets get that escarole!
Lets get the over!Comment -
Just remember long term is the goal here. We may go through some losing days, weeks or even months. However, at the end of each market's season, the goal is to be up units pretty comfortably. I've done that in each sport (except last season's NFL) over the last 1.5 years since trying to do this full time. I did quite well in NBA (made over 50x in terms of current units) and MLB (made over 40x) which allows me to play the football season with house money.
Plus, I would generally recommend against going big in football. Remember, my football units are much less than my MLB or NBA units. There is a reason for that, not the least of which that my football model and process still needs a lot of tweaking compared to my MLB and NBA models. I made about 20x last season in NCAAF and lost about 5x in NFL after losing the Super Bowl with a big play on the under.
At the end of the day, there is a reason football is the books biggest moneymaker. The lines are the most sharp and I personally find it hardest to cap because there is so much involved and your investment opportunities are limited because most games are only played on the weekend. I generally view football as a bridge between MLB and NBA. I should really get into the NHL because it's such a small market with good value opportunities, but as you know I play a lot of totals and I don't like paying -130 for totals in the NHL. Plus, I don't know as much about that sport as I do baseball, football and basketball. I could just read line movement I suppose, but that is not fool proof as we all know. Therefore, I generally stick to MLB, NBA, NCAAF and NFL. I am really hoping NBA gets back to business soon...
Anyway, the point of all this is not to get too caught up with a couple bad weeks. Generally, when I have a bad couple weeks, a good couple weeks are right around the corner. That's why money management is so important. I will play more aggressively when I heat up and we will make up any losses and then some. It's the natural ebb and flow of sports investing. We will go through peaks and valleys, but more peaks and that will lead to long term profit.
Comment -
NFL is fools gold LTA. Books have a week to fine tune 12 or so games (with bye's now). Your approach of trying to grab the early total's is probably the best chance that can be had...end of the day it will leave people feeling a genius or a fool, but there are few that can beat NFL year after year. This time of the year is always volatile for me.....so much invested in 2 days (Sat,Sun).....really wish NBA was in session.
Comment -
Thanks LTA.! You are absolutely right as usual. I think we all get down and need picking up so I thank you and Red for picking me up just now.Just remember long term is the goal here. We may go through some losing days, weeks or even months. However, at the end of each market's season, the goal is to be up units pretty comfortably. I've done that in each sport (except last season's NFL) over the last 1.5 years since trying to do this full time. I did quite well in NBA (made over 50x in terms of current units) and MLB (made over 40x) which allows me to play the football season with house money.
Plus, I would generally recommend against going big in football. Remember, my football units are much less than my MLB or NBA units. There is a reason for that, not the least of which that my football model and process still needs a lot of tweaking compared to my MLB and NBA models. I made about 20x last season in NCAAF and lost about 5x in NFL after losing the Super Bowl with a big play on the under.
At the end of the day, there is a reason football is the books biggest moneymaker. The lines are the most sharp and I personally find it hardest to cap because there is so much involved and your investment opportunities are limited because most games are only played on the weekend. I generally view football as a bridge between MLB and NBA. I should really get into the NHL because it's such a small market with good value opportunities, but as you know I play a lot of totals and I don't like paying -130 for totals in the NHL. Plus, I don't know as much about that sport as I do baseball, football and basketball. I could just read line movement I suppose, but that is not fool proof as we all know. Therefore, I generally stick to MLB, NBA, NCAAF and NFL. I am really hoping NBA gets back to business soon...
Anyway, the point of all this is not to get too caught up with a couple bad weeks. Generally, when I have a bad couple weeks, a good couple weeks are right around the corner. That's why money management is so important. I will play more aggressively when I heat up and we will make up any losses and then some. It's the natural ebb and flow of sports investing. We will go through peaks and valleys, but more peaks and that will lead to long term profit.
As for hockey, I hate the juice on moneylines, so only bet totals, but that juice can be rough too.
Realy looking forward to NBA soon and learning from you.
Comment -
Problem with the NFL is the sharps hammer numbers early and the lines are always amazingly accurate (NFL is fools gold LTA. Books have a week to fine tune 12 or so games (with bye's now). Your approach of trying to grab the early total's is probably the best chance that can be had...end of the day it will leave people feeling a genius or a fool, but there are few that can beat NFL year after year. This time of the year is always volatile for me.....so much invested in 2 days (Sat,Sun).....really wish NBA was in session.
), which means more often than not, you're locking in a bad number unless you jump on them right out of the gate.
Comment -
I agree with pretty much everything there. Good post.NFL is fools gold LTA. Books have a week to fine tune 12 or so games (with bye's now). Your approach of trying to grab the early total's is probably the best chance that can be had...end of the day it will leave people feeling a genius or a fool, but there are few that can beat NFL year after year. This time of the year is always volatile for me.....so much invested in 2 days (Sat,Sun).....really wish NBA was in session.
I love the daily action in NBA and MLB because I'm a grinder. I like the daily routine of it and I get into a rhythm making plays. When you playing daily MLB and NBA action, you get a better read on the market sooner and where it's going to go because you're seeing the same situations over and over on a daily basis. It allows for more consistency and more profit just because of the volume and investment opportunities.Comment -
Romo needs some serious help from his team if Dallas will help the over. Lets hope for 7 more before the half from Dallas.Comment -
Yup, we are left to make the most of what's left, not an envious position. I spent many a season going tilt this time of the year, now I treat it as the off-season.Comment -
Yep...I mean, there are value plays remaining depending on which side you are on, but for the most part you are right. That's why I always get on certain plays in both NCAAF and NFL on Mondays and Tuesdays. Now that MLB is over and NBA is, well, non-existant, I will be making more plays earlier in the week than I already do. Just like every other market, it's all about spotting the value and jumping on it early to get a great number and beat the closer.
Good luck bud...keep up the great work. You're killing NCAAF right now
Comment -
We're going to need the Cowboys to join the party in the second half and get us at least 17 or so.Comment -
Yeah, well I do admit to some bitterness in not being able to crack the NFL nut
. I have faith that your type of approach will give the best chances to do so though. I have a a hard time really finding a statistical edge in football and rely on too much emotion at the end of the day.
Comment -
Yep...it's all about keeping your head above water in NCAAF and NFL. My goal is to make a modest profit around 15x ish in both. If I can do that, I am more than happy. As long as I don't lose money, I am satisfied where football is concerned. There's not too many that can beat football lines and if you can do that consistently more power to you.
Comment -
I actually do pretty well with NFL and CFB. I'm kind of the opposite of LTA. He's a number cruncher; I'm a line guy. I think line movement and being able to read the lines is much more significant in football than it is baseball. I've been raking it in on the weekends for a while this fall, only to give it all back during the week with baseball plays.
Had a brutal run of bases in the playoffs, honestly.
Comment -
Yep...I mean, there are value plays remaining depending on which side you are on, but for the most part you are right. That's why I always get on certain plays in both NCAAF and NFL on Mondays and Tuesdays. Now that MLB is over and NBA is, well, non-existant, I will be making more plays earlier in the week than I already do. Just like every other market, it's all about spotting the value and jumping on it early to get a great number and beat the closer.
Good luck bud...keep up the great work. You're killing NCAAF right now
FTR, I'm on the under in this game and feeling OK about it (not great, but decent). I got it at 49.5 (along with the Eagles ML and an under parlay). Actually thinking of trying to hit a middle 2H given the current "live" O/U is 46.5, but I noticed the Greek is hanging a 21.5 instead of the 22.5 at my book, which means they're probably leaning for a 2H under.Comment -
Interesting that my book has 10.5 for both teams' 2H TT, but a 22.5 total. Meanwhile, Greek's at 11.5 for Dallas and 11 for Philly, yet the total is only 21.5.Comment -
That's the thing...football isn't just about math unless you're arbing moneylines and a lot of times you're not going to get the moves you need to make that guarantied profit. Plus, if you're arbing, you need to have 10 or more outlets to spread your action around or your're going to get cut off pretty quick.Yeah, well I do admit to some bitterness in not being able to crack the NFL nut. I have faith that your type of approach will give the best chances to do so though. I have a a hard time really finding a statistical edge in football and rely on too much emotion at the end of the day.
In football, situational angles are so important. Just look as the Saints/Rams game. The Saints dominate the Rams in every category on offense and most on defense. However, this was a bad spot for the Saints after just scoring over 60 and due to regress. Neverthless, I'm not too sure how many big rollers put max bets on the Rams ML. If so, I will
Comment -
I have 23 at both my books (one follows 5d/Pinny and other Legends for the most part). I suppose I could hedge out, but with my recent luck it would end on 47 and I would lose everything.
In all seriousness, I rarely hedgle and I'm not really worried either. I don't see the Cowboys getting blanked. They are about to break some big runs on the ground with Murray and will get the ball to Austin and Dez Bryant on the outside. If they can get a couple TD's, this over should cash.Comment -
I will say this forever and probably should just start at thread about it: if you just stuck to taking home dogs of a single possession or less (6.5 on down) and road dogs of 2.5 or less, I think you'd absolutely murder football. I really do.Comment -
Does it worry you at all that the total dropped 2 points with 3/4ths of the public on the over?I have 23 at both my books (one follows 5d/Pinny and other Legends for the most part). I suppose I could hedge out, but with my recent luck it would end on 47 and I would lose everything.
In all seriousness, I rarely hedgle and I'm not really worried either. I don't see the Cowboys getting blanked. They are about to break some big runs on the ground with Murray and will get the ball to Austin and Dez Bryant on the outside. If they can get a couple TD's, this over should cash.Comment -
Just a comment from left field.......I am so sick of uber-talented WR's who are the biggest bitch's in professional sports. Yeah, I'm looking at you Dez........with 50% of dedication it takes others would dominate the game.....I think the prima donna WR is starting to wear out their welcome in the NFL....hopefully.
Comment -
Couldn't agree more Red. You are 150% correct. It makes the game almost unwatchable.Just a comment from left field.......I am so sick of uber-talented WR's who are the biggest bitch's in professional sports. Yeah, I'm looking at you Dez........with 50% of dedication it takes others would dominate the game.....I think the prima donna WR is starting to wear out their welcome in the NFL....hopefully.
Comment -
Talk about a no-show from Dallas tonight. Wow.Comment -
Backward pass? What are the refs smoking?Comment -
I had this total set at 51 which is where it opened. Early money hit the under dropping it down to where I got it at 48. I thought this was more of a situation where you had a decent buy back on Friday and Saturday as it started coming back up. Plus, even though the percentages ended up with 70% on the over, the early week numbers had this at about 45% on the over. In fact, I may have taken the under had I got it at 51, but after the drop to 48 and looking into the game more, I felt the over was the better play.
If you just blindly played RLM, you're not going to hit at the magic 52.5% you need to profit. I don't discount RLM and use it as a factor, but I don't think just using it blindly in such a big market as football would be profitable. Maybe in NHL where there is less volume of bets, RLM moves are more meaningful, but no so much in football IMHO. That's a concept that has to be used in conjunction with other factors.
FTR, now I'm worried after the Eagles used up half the quarter on that drive without getting a TD...Comment -
Phillys D has flat out smoked the Cowboys. Lets hope we get something like what happened last week in New Orleans with Philly scoring 40+Comment -
Actually, I've found the opposite to be true in the two-plus years I've played RLM. It doesn't work nearly as much in hockey and baseball as it does with football and basketball. Is it fool-proof? Of course not. But if you're asking me if it hits over 52.5%, I'd say it does without question.
The way I look at it, books and guys with big money typically know more than me, the casual bettor -- so there's typically a reason the line moves the way it does when the public sees otherwise. Does that mean I blindly play line movement and don't cap? Of course not, but I think RLM is a valuable tool that can crank out profits if you use it wisely and as part of your betting playbook.Comment
