[No coincidences]

At S(quare)portsbook:

Cincinnati +1.5 -- 83% of bets on Baltimore
Detroit +4.5 -- 96% of bets on Philly
Washington +3 -- 85% of bets on Houston
Jets +2 -- 96% of bets on New England
San Francisco +5 -- 95% of bets on New Orleans



Like clockwork. Will all of these cash? No. But I'm guessing if you play the six, at worst you split, with a good chance of going 4-2.

Take the points, though -- no ML's.

[uanl]

My early leans are bengals, skins, and jets

[No coincidences]

Let's take a look at the college side....

Top public plays at Sportsbook.com:

Iowa -1.5 at Arizona (96% of public)
California -2.5 at Nevada (89%)
Nebraska -3.5 at Washington (95%)
Texas -3 at Texas Tech (92%)



Public never learns.

I will say this: of all the winners here -- and trust me, there will be winners -- I think Joe Blow is going to get hammered taking the Saints -5 on MNF at SF. That's the trap of all traps. Bad number, disrespected home team coming off an ugly loss, public taking the bait huge -- I'd be stunned if the Saints cover there.

Anyway, there are 10 plays -- 6 NFL and 4 college -- to look at. If you're taking one of these visitors, consider yourself warned (and lucky if it does happen to cash). Watch for RLM (like the KC game this past week) late, and if it occurs, hammer the shit out of the home team.

[uanl]

Liking UW, Texas and Nevada in the college ... however I do think RLM is gonna be hard to find in these games given that the spreads are, for the most part, already small ... maybe some movement on the saints game but I believe that opened at 4 or 4.5 and its moving with the public for now ... we'll see... should be interesting tho ...

[Kav]

skins, lions and cinci look good.

[Saluki09]

A lot of bad teams on that list besides the Jets. But the Jets prolly have the worst offense in the NFL. Losing Jones and Faneca was bigger then they thought.

I like the Eagles though with Vick in at QB. The lions D is going to be on the field a lot with Shaun Hill at QB. The lions D is going to get tired fast being on the field constantly and having the chase Vick around for a whole game. Packers D looked winded on defense in the 2nd half and had a lot of trouble with Vick.

[bobbyk1133]

At S(quare)portsbook:

Cincinnati +1.5 -- 83% of bets on Baltimore
Detroit +4.5 -- 96% of bets on Philly
Washington +3 -- 85% of bets on Houston
Jets +2 -- 96% of bets on New England
San Francisco +5 -- 95% of bets on New Orleans



Like clockwork. Will all of these cash? No. But I'm guessing if you play the six, at worst you split, with a good chance of going 4-2.

Take the points, though -- no ML's.

Of those, I like CIN and possibly SF. I'm not sure if they are complete trap games, but I don't think either favorite deserves that much action. Despite CIN's 1st week debacle, I like them as a team. BAL is coming off a big win on the road on a short week. SF should play a lot better because the bright lights will be shining and they'll have the home crowd. The only thing I don't like about this game is NO isn't about to have a SB hangover and they've had a few extra days to prepare. All the pressure is on SF to pull out a win SU and Alex Smith isn't about to turn into Joe Montana.

Sean Hill is not going to have fun against that PHI defense. Jets have a great team, but can Sanchez complete a pass beyond 15 yards? I'm not even sure he can see that far.

Also if you like a dog at +1 to +2.5 play the ML. At worst, split the bet between the spread and ML for the best value.

[PoweRay]

Good luck with the plays. So many players just blindly took the Home teams last weekend and cashed, lol.

[GunShard]

I like the Saints, Patriots and Eagles this week.

The Redskins and Bengals could cover the spread since they have good red zone defense.

[Saluki09]

For the Jets, remember if Sanchez struggles in his first drive the Jet fans will let him hear it. Having the home crowd could hurt them sunday. JMO

[TPowell]

Detroit is a slammer to me. Vick may be good but he won't be that good. Detroit played with Chicago the whole game on the road and I expect a breakout performance in their home opener. The defensive front is very good for Detroit. Love anything more than 3.5

[TheJer]

The Bengals definitely win on Sunday.

[Redchevy]

At S(quare)portsbook:

Cincinnati +1.5 -- 83% of bets on Baltimore
Detroit +4.5 -- 96% of bets on Philly
Washington +3 -- 85% of bets on Houston
Jets +2 -- 96% of bets on New England
San Francisco +5 -- 95% of bets on New Orleans



Like clockwork. Will all of these cash? No. But I'm guessing if you play the six, at worst you split, with a good chance of going 4-2.

Take the points, though -- no ML's.

Maybe I'm getting old and need glasses but I'm only seeing 5 picks here, how can you go 4-2? Out of the 5 games I see, I think Houston and NE cover the number. Everyone is saying Houston will be exhausted after the win in Indy. I see it as Houston believes it's their time, I see no let up from them, they're physical, motivated and looking to make a statement. As far as the Jets/NE game, I think NE blows the Jets out of the stadium. Brady has too many weapons that the general public aren't even aware of yet. Last years numbers between these 2 teams mean 0. The rest of the games are a toss up IMO.

[Robust]

At S(quare)portsbook:

Cincinnati +1.5 -- 83% of bets on Baltimore
Detroit +4.5 -- 96% of bets on Philly
Washington +3 -- 85% of bets on Houston
Jets +2 -- 96% of bets on New England
San Francisco +5 -- 95% of bets on New Orleans



Like clockwork. Will all of these cash? No. But I'm guessing if you play the six, at worst you split, with a good chance of going 4-2.

Take the points, though -- no ML's.

No value in taking cin or jets ats.. do you really think they cover by losing by 1? if you do this, take the ml on these two teams..

my 2 cents..

Robust

[JoMoney2785]

LOVE this thread. lets hammer the public this weekend

[gryfyn1]

I dunno, ML isnt always bad, last week Home Dogs went 6-2-1 all 6 won outright.

One of the first things my dad taught me about betting football is that 50% of the home dogs in a week will cover --

[Redchevy]

LOVE this thread. lets hammer the public this weekend

Good luck Jo, the odds are always 50/50 and the public isn't always wrong. My strategy is to just bet the team with the best QB/Offense with a halfway respectable defense. It's worked pretty well over the years. I just don't over think these games. If they play true to form, you'll be on the positive side!!!

[MadTiger]

I am on Detroit and Miami as far as Week 2 NFL dogs.

[Redchevy]

I am on Detroit and Miami as far as Week 2 NFL dogs.

Good luck, but personnaly this week I hate Miami. They may have as many offensive problems as the Jets. Henne just doesn't have it. They struggled against a terrible Bills team and I don't see Minny going 0-2. Minnys' at home, another week for Favre to get up to speed, I think they cover easily. JMO on it.

[Juwon]

Was/SF/Cincy would be the three I think hit. Cannot see Detroit or Jets pulling it out.

[Snowball]

i really think you win 0,1, or 2 of these max.
public can bet on whom the best team is, it's up to Vegas to adjust the line.
in these cases you should have waited til kickoff for more points.

[BookieOweMe]

NO should rout.

[NY Playa]

love home dogs, yopu will win atleast 4!

[your pixel army]

I would not touch Cincy. No way.

[Bogart45]

My early leans are bengals, skins, and jets

same here.

[Goat Milk]

didn't you tell me you wanted baltimore nc?

[No coincidences]

NC im hoping by sunday we can add cle to that list, to me they already on it even though they small favs (keep pounding kc ppl, i need better price on cle)...

totally agree with SF on monday night but may end up just playing the under (havnt decided)...

cincy also on my card as of now,they have the weapons to expose baltys biggest weakness and you know they gonna be looking to bounce back after the ass kicking handed to the by the pats..

would either be Det or pass for me, probably only way i play it is if i can get 7 or more......

Hou is my square play of the week (gotta have one right?)

more than likely will just watch pats/jets........good to be posting again....gl this weekend

Good to see you posting, Bank!

[No coincidences]

i really think you win 0,1, or 2 of these max.
public can bet on whom the best team is, it's up to Vegas to adjust the line.
in these cases you should have waited til kickoff for more points.

You mean like Indy in Week 1, Snow?



I don't have any of these locked in. We'll see where the line goes from here. If there's RLM like KC last week, I'm on it. No guarantees, but they cash more often than not.

[Snowball]

You mean like Indy in Week 1, Snow?



I don't have any of these locked in. We'll see where the line goes from here. If there's RLM like KC last week, I'm on it. No guarantees, but they cash more often than not.

heh.. ya that one hurt. i had parlays needing just Indy.
still ended the week positive on Steelers, Jags, Skins, Ravens.

fwiw my favorite plays this week include:

tier 1: Vikings, Saints, Patriots
tier 2: Titans, Seahawks, Raiders, NYG/Indy Under 48

[big0mar]

i really think you win 0,1, or 2 of these max.
public can bet on whom the best team is, it's up to Vegas to adjust the line.
in these cases you should have waited til kickoff for more points.

Not necessarily.

No reason that Cincy should be an underdog this week. They were 6-0 in division games last season.

[l7ustin]

Cincy is an underdog bec they got their asses whooped by the patriots

[815Sox]

Really like those picks, I did already bet on Philly, locked in at -3.5... I knew Stafford was being out after watching the Bears. That looked like almost hurt as much as the play during the game.

[Goat Milk]

didn't you tell me you wanted baltimore nc?

>???

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I disagree with going against the public while betting NFL. It might work for other sports such as baseball but don't think it will work in football, you could get burned. Best way to bet football is to understand the game and the league. Know whats going on at all times and you will be successful. Know whos in and whos out, and coaching styles etc. Like any sport if you don't know whats going on and whos injured and what not, it gets difficult. I disagree with blinding fading the public.

[Goat Milk]

They don't care if 70% is on one team if the money is even on both sides. Percentages don't mean shit. Books make a killing on halftime lines in the NFL anyway. Anything they lose to the public on a full game they usually get back with square bets people make at HT