1. #1
    bigboydan
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    Florida vs. George Mason

    Back on Selection Sunday, most felt the Final Four opener on Saturday would be a Big East showdown between Villanova and UConn in a rubber match after the two schools split a pair of regular-season meetings. That won't be the case, however, as Florida and George Mason spoiled those plans, and subsequently, the brackets of thousands.

    The Gators dismantled the top-seeded Wildcats 75-62 in the finals of the Minneapolis region, avenging a second-round loss to 'Nova last year. Meanwhile, the Patriots survived a miraculous UConn comeback that forced overtime, winning in the extra session when Denham Brown's 3-point attempt from the left wing caromed off the rim, sending fans of the Fairfax, VA., school into a frenzy of unprecedented proportions.

    All five George Mason starters scored in double figures against the Huskies. Jai Lewis paced the Patriots with 20 points and seven rebounds, while Will Thomas finished with 19 points and 12 boards.

    This is George Mason's first appearance in the national semifinals, while UF is in the Final Four for the third time. The Patriots are only the second double-digit seed to make the Final Four (11th-seeded LSU in 1986 was the other), the first mid-major since Indiana State and Penn crashed the party in 1979. (Sure, UNLV played in the Big West, but the Runnin' Rebels were a powerhouse back then.)

    Most sports books are listing Florida (31-6 straight up, 19-11 against the spread) as a six-point favorite with the total hovering around 132-133. The Patriots are plus 220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).

    The Gators have won nine straight games, compiling a 6-2-1 spread record during that span. They advanced with blowouts wins over South Alabama (76-50) and Wisconsin-Milwaukee (82-60) in Jacksonville, ending a five-year absence from the Sweet 16.

    Billy Donovan's team got its toughest test from Georgetown in the region semifinals, capturing a hard-fought 57-53 win as a 2 1/2-point 'chalk.' Next, UF's clean sweep of the Big East (it beat the 'Cuse at MSG back in November too) continued with the aforementioned revenge victory against 'Nova.

    Joakim Noah was named the region's Most Outstanding Player following his 21-point, 15-rebound effort against the Wildcats. Noah has averaged 17.3 points, 10.0 rebounds and 4.8 blocks per game in the Big Dance. Did we mention the 14 assists from the sophomore sensation in the span of four games?

    How nasty has Noah been in recent weeks? So good that he's made Al Horford's stellar play go largely unnoticed. All Horford did against Villanova was score 12 points and 15 rebounds, seemingly getting all six buckets on backboard-rattling dunks. Taurean Green scored 19 points, draining 12-of-13 free throws to prevent Jay Wright's team from making a last-minute rally.

    George Mason (27-7 SU, 19-9 ATS) had a tougher path to Indy than UF. The Patriots not only beat Michigan State by double digits (75-65) in the first round, but they did so without the services of senior guard Tony Skinn, who was suspended at the time. In the second round, they fell behind North Carolina by double digits early, only to rally for a 65-60 triumph as six-point underdogs.

    The Cinderella stories often end at the Sweet 16, but not this one. Jim Larranaga's squad beat Wichita State 63-55 in the Washington D.C. region semis as a 2 1/2-point favorite, setting up the thrilling win over top-seeded UConn.

    The Patriots have won outright three times as underdogs in the Tournament. For the season, they own a 7-2 spread record as underdogs.

    For bettors concerned about how George Mason will defend Noah, don't forget what we've seen in recent weeks. Last time we checked, Michigan State's Paul Davis, UNC's Tyler Hansbrough, Wichita State's Paul Miller and UConn's Hilton Armstrong-Josh Boone combination was considered quite formidable. As is Eric Williams of Wake Forest, which beat G-Mason in OT at Lawrence Joel Coliseum back in November.

    By the same token, don't get fooled into thinking Lewis' massive 275-pound frame is something that will wear down Noah and/or Horford. Remember, the Gators went up against that guy called Big Baby twice this season, winning both times.

    Let's now take a look at the total that's expected to close in the low 130s. The 'under' has been good to the Gators, taking the money in five consecutive games thanks to their outstanding defense, which has given up more than 65 points just once in nine games.

    The 'under' is 19-11 overall for the Patriots, 19-12 for the Gators.

    There are a number of prop bets available at Sportsbook.com. For example, the total of Noah's points scored is 15 1/2 at a minus 115 price either way. There are totals for Horford's points and rebounds (18 1/2 'over' -125) and Green's points-rebounds-assists (19 1/2 minus 115 either way).

    Tip-off on CBS is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. Eastern.

  2. #2
    Illusion
    Illusion's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    I happen to like the over in this one.

  3. #3
    imgv94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Illusion
    I happen to like the over in this one.
    I hope you win brother!!!!

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