Today I will be going with the proven tournament coache. I think when there has been 6 days since the last games, the coaching plays even a bigger role. Tom Izzo has had almost a week to prepare his team for todays games and I think he will have his team ready to go.
Michigan State ML +105
The Butler/Michigan State matchup is a game between two teams with similar styles. The Bulldogs big advantage here is obviously that they are playing in their home city. This is really their only advantage and I am not sure that it will end up being that much of a factor.
We have to realize that Michigan State is just right down the road as well, and the Spartans have played in Indy quite a few times as well. The Spartans, being a much bigger school may well turn out more fans than Butler even playing in Indianapolis.
The key to the game for the Spartans here is to get out to a lead in the early minutes. They cant let Butler knock down some threes early then get comfortable in their zone defense. The Spartans have been a slow paced team themselves a lot this year, but they will run when the opportunity arises. I think they have to try and push the tempo a little and not let this become a slow paced mid 50's type game. That plays right into the Bulldogs hand.
Butler hasnt lost since 2009 but even so they have been a bit of an overlooked team in the tourney. They only beat Murray State by 2 in the second round, and figured to be an easy Win for Syracuse. Even after that, Not too many people thought they would take down Kansas State. the days of being overlooked are gone, and no way will Izzo let his Spartans take Butler lightly.
Izzo has proven to be one of the best tournament coaches, if not the best. He has had 6 days to get his team ready and you better believe they will be ready. If the Spartans can open up a 7 or 8 point lead early, it will force Butler out of that slow paced frustrating style they love to play.
Looking at this line, I can see tremendous value in the Spartans ML at +100. I mean before last weeks Bulldog wins, what would the Spartans have been here ? At least a 6 point favorite. Sure, those wins against Syracuse and K State have to factor into the line, but how often have we seen a team get hot and play a couple great games and not be able to replicate it ?
I think thats what we will see with Butler. They are a good team no doubt, but they rolled a weak Horizon League schedule, then didnt look too impressive in rounds 1 or 2. Then they came up big against a Syracuse team that was probably looking past what seemed like an easy win.
We have to remember everything went Butlers way against Syracuse. Butlers D forced the Orange to hit from outside, and they couldnt. Butler was nailing the threes, including that big one late in the game that I still dont know how it went.
I am not trying to take anything away from Butler, everyone loves an underdog. Still they arent near as good as the impression they left last week with those 2 wins, and now they are actually favored over a team that there is no way on Earth they would have been favored over any time, any place, ever before those 2 wins last week.
So really what you get here with M State is the better coach without a doubt, the team that has been there, the team that has played the better schedule, been ranked higher all year, would of been favored all year, and you are getting them at +105 ML just because Butler had a good weekend last weekend.
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Michigan State ML +105
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