[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/15/14 4:19p CT

Play: DET OV 204 -110

SDQL: p:AW and pp:AW and p:margin<=5 and pp:margin<=5 and 12>=month>=11 and total>=183 and o:rest>0

English: In months Nov and Dec, play over a team off b2b road wins of 5 or less against a rested oppt.

[Heart]

nice, I'm on it, Nash! Tweak that total to 210>total>207 and it looks even better.

[nash13]

Guys some advice for the ones using the sheet, please adapt to the format and don't get chaotic with all that's there already.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 75-65-3 53.5% (+5.81) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 1-2-1 (-1.16)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)

1. JMon - 13-12-1 (+.70)

2. pip2 - 14-11 (+2.33)

3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)

4. Ronald S. - 9-13 (-4.78)

5. hyahya - 6-5-1 (+.45)

6. Mako-SBR - 12-11 (-.10)

7. Heart - 3-1 (+1.92)

8. Consigliere - 8-4-1 (+3.77)

9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)

10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it!

[pip2]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15


12/16/14 8:00am pst NBA Basketball 510 Memphis Grizzlies -2½ -110* vs Golden State Warriors

SDQL:

playoffs=0 and p:W and season > 2007 and tS(W)-(tS(W)/1.3) < oS(W) and p:TPM*3/p:points + p:points in the paint/p:points > .76 and conference=Western and op:margin > -2

SDQL: English

Since 2007 and excluding playoffs, a western conference team won its previous game, it's opponent has won at least 23% as many games as the team has won, and in its previous game the team scored at least 76% of its point either in the paint or from beyond the arc, and the team's opponent won its last game or at least did not lose by more than 1 point.

[Consigliere]

Hey guys I've been pretty hit or miss on here between travelling for work, family commitments etc but rather than doing any mining and posting BB I've been working on our automation problem. Personally, this SDQL method is an experiment for me and I am certainly not going to pay $500 for a license from the proposed software developer, nor contribute to the $2000 for the development. This is too simple a problem to have to throw that kind of money at. I'm sure this could work out really well but it's not for me.

So, I've developed an Excel tool that will develop a daily view of each matchup, will post the active trends for that matchup for that day. Basically a daily card - home team, away team, line, active trends and whether they are BACK/FADE. This is all done with a single button click. It takes about 10 minutes to cycle through all 100+ ATS trends we have. It is limited only by the time it takes to update the SDQL so really limited by the database (as proposed by the developer as well). Now this is not a standalone app, MS Excel is required to run it, and it also will be setup so that you cannot add new trends on your own. The program needs tight controls to work properly. Certainly not as flexible as the developer proposal. I can't seem to get an image to upload to show the interface but will get that up later.

This is so far setup for NBA ATS only. If this works out well, I plan on adding the OU plays and I plan to develop tools for other sports. I also plan on adding on a bunch of statistical features and historical performance of all the trends. This will be an add-in for future. I also plan on supporting this every season so that each year I will roll out the version for that year/sport.

What I'm thinking is that I will continue to run this on my own for a little bit longer to confirm everything is working correctly and then offer it up to those that want it. Now given the time commitment I have on this and also for future support I would like to charge a small fee for the tool. This is what I'm thinking and looking for feedback:

1) Basic version - daily card with active trends showing $25 per sport per season.
2) Statistical info and historical performance - all basic features + historical performances of that active trend summarized right into the daily card. $35 per sport per season.

I will include all the trends in our shared spreadsheet and will offer to put an additional 10 trends per season into it for you at no cost. Every additional trend to be added will be $1 with maybe something like 10 trends for $5 if you have a bunch to add.

These are my initial thoughts. This is certainly not a money making venture on my part, just recouping some cash for the time I have into this. I think compared to the alternatives ($500 + some part of $2000 or $2 per trend per season) this is a very reasonable price (although you may need to buy/find Excel somewhere). Let me know what you guys think and if you're interested. The last two days I've used it and like I said, it highlights everything we've been doing manually in 1 click and 10 minutes of crunching.

[Mako-SBR]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/16/14 10:15a PST

Play: OKC (-7) SAC -110

SDQL:
HD and rest>=2 and p:PTP>=30 and division!=o:division and season>=2006

English:
Simple one, basically fading a rested home dog that scored 30% or more of their total points last game via three-point shots, against a team outside of their division. BOL all!!

[dmitean]

Posted tonight's queries on the file.

I like 15th query and Dallas looks nice as well.

[Heart]

no best bet for me tonight folks.

[nash13]

no best bet for me

[JMon]

NBA Best Bet

12-16-14 5:25p Ct

PLay Dal -7 -110


SDQL: A and tA(points) >= 103 and p:M2 <= -20 and 2005<=season

Play good offensive road team that was losing by 20 or more at the half in their last game.

[Ronald S.]

Been busy lately no best bet for me tonight. Sorry heart I totally mushed our play yesterday.

I think I got a good one for tomorrow though... Clippers/Pacers under

p:margin >= 19 and op:margin >= 19 and H
SU: 76-62 (1.88, 55.1%) ATS: 59-75-4 (-1.15, 44.0%) avg line: -3.0 O/U: 47-90-1 (-3.74, 34.3%) avg total: 195.3

p:margin >= 19 and op:margin >= 19 and H and rest = 1 and o:rest = 1
SU: 25-25 (0.48, 50.0%) ATS: 20-29-1 (-2.78, 40.8%) avg line: -3.3 O/U: 12-37-1 (-7.13, 24.5%) avg total: 192.1

[moshi]

Just curious - do any of you know where the SDQL site gets the line and odds from?

[JMon]

Just curious - do any of you know where the SDQL site gets the line and odds from?

I believe the google group has info on this..just need to search within.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 78-65-3 54.5% (+8.81) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 3-0 (+3.00) solid day!!

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)

1. JMon - 14-12-1 (+1.70)

2. pip2 - 15-11 (+3.33)

3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)

4. Ronald S. - 9-13 (-4.78)

5. hyahya - 6-5-1 (+.45)

6. Mako-SBR - 13-11 (+.90)

7. Heart - 3-1 (+1.92)

8. Consigliere - 8-4-1 (+3.77)

9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)

10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it!

[pip2]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15


12/17/14 5:50am pst Reduced Basketball 707 Dallas Mavericks/Detroit Pistons Under 203½ -105*

SDQL:

A and tA(assists) > oA(assists) and tA(rebounds) < oA(rebounds) and tA(FTA) < oA(FTA) and tA(blocks) > oA(blocks) and tA(FGP) > oA(FGP) and tA(TPP) > oA(TPP) and tA(TO) < oA(TO) and o:rest!=2 and season > 2006 and (194 > total or total > 198)

SDQL: English

Since 2006, 2 teams with different personalities defined by their season-long relative tendencies meeting today. dal excels in passing the ball with fewer turnovers, blocking more shots, and shooting a higher field goal percentage. det grabs more rebounds and has rested for any length of time besides 2 days. The total for the game is at 203.5, above the 198 stipulation of the query. These two teams should go under.

[mdunlap3]

My own creation:

team=Grizzlies and A and rest=0 and o:rest>0 and t:conference=o:conference and o:WP>66.7 and season>=2007

English: Grizzlies in a back to back on the road against a conference opponent who has won at least two thirds of their games season to date who is coming off at least one day of rest, looking back to 2007.

Taking Grizzlies + points.

[Heart]

Good work yesterday! Got me a couple units tailing the Thunder and Grizzlies plays.

No best bets for me again today.

[nash13]

Will watch line movement, maybe there will be something coming up later.

[Cutler'sThumb]

Here's one for tonight that has a pretty good history (#21):
p:ou margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008 and 11.5 > line > -10

Heat -4

[Mako-SBR]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/17/14 12:51p PST

Play: SAS (-3) MEM -110

SDQL:
AD and tS(W, N=5)=5 and rest=0 and division=o:division and season>=2008

English:
Fading an away dog on no rest that has been on a hot streak, having won five games in a row previously, going against a team in their own division. BOL all!

[Ronald S.]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/17/14 5:30 PM EST

Indiana/LA Clippers Under 201 -105 (bovada)

p:margin >= 19 and op:margin >= 19 and H
O/U: 47-90-1 (-3.74, 34.3%) avg total: 195.3
p:margin >= 19 and op:margin >= 19 and H and rest = 1 and o:rest = 1
O/U: 12-37-1 (-7.13, 24.5%) avg total: 192.1

Play the under in a game where both teams won in a blowout in their previous games.

[emceeaye]

p:M3 >= 0 and (AD) and 0 > p:margin and rest = 0 and day = Wednesday and month=12

Look at average Q1 scores in this situation. Average margin=-3.6 for home team

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/17/14 5:30 PM EST

Indiana/LA Clippers Under 201 -105 (bovada)

p:margin >= 19 and op:margin >= 19 and H
O/U: 47-90-1 (-3.74, 34.3%) avg total: 195.3
p:margin >= 19 and op:margin >= 19 and H and rest = 1 and o:rest = 1
O/U: 12-37-1 (-7.13, 24.5%) avg total: 192.1

Play the under in a game where both teams won in a blowout in their previous games.

I worked up this one awhile ago...like it.

total >= 200 and p:margin >= 20 and op:margin at the half >= 15 and o:rest!=2

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/17/14 5:22p CT

Play SA -3 -110

SDQL: 3>=line>=-3 and P:HL and op:A and op:margin<=-10 and rest<3 and month!=3

English: Fade a team with a short line, revenging a home loss against an oppt of a road loss of 10 or more.

[Consigliere]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/17/14 5:22p CT

Play ORL +4 -112

SDQL: AD and WP<50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3<o:ats streak<3<="" font="">

English: Play the road dog with the sub 500 record against a team on a back to back or when the team has had a day of rest. The team is on at least a 1 game losing ats streak and the opponent is on a 1-2 game ats streak. Essentially looking for value in the bad road dog where the lines have had some time to over correct themselves. Also riding a hot trend here at 14-7 so far this season</o:ats>

[mdunlap3]

JMon you didn't like my Grizzlies query man? I thought it looked very solid...

[Ronald S.]

I worked up this one awhile ago...like it.

total >= 200 and p:margin >= 20 and op:margin at the half >= 15 and o:rest!=2

Nice one! Hopefully get back on track with this one

[JMon]

JMon you didn't like my Grizzlies query man? I thought it looked very solid...

Not a fan of team specific queries as a basis, use mainly to confirm. Yet the main reason why your query distracted me was the avg line in the small sample vs. the current line. Line differential like that (line makers know everything) should tell you something is not right. "Not right" can be anything... players, coach, time, etc...
While it may win tonight...I wouldn't put my money on it to justify a sdql bet.

[mdunlap3]

Won SU.

[Mako-SBR]

Won SU.

Team trends, and even worse, player trends, are typically tough to turn into a long term profit for all of the good reasons JMon mentions, and a lot more. Fool's gold typically, have watched a lot of players go down that rabbit hole deep into the red...especially if god forbid they win a little first...confirmation bias sets in and it's all over.

We've even seen a variety of them in this thread, but few remain today a year later.
Good luck though, more power to you if you can crack that egg.

[mdunlap3]

Wow you are all such haters...not a single positive thing to say. Awesome.

[JMon]

Wow you are all such haters...not a single positive thing to say. Awesome.

mdunlap no one was hating, rather sharing our personal experiences with that type of query. Take it or leave it, each one of us uses sdql differently. If you personally like team specific queries then play them.

Btw...good win, you are the only one that won yesterday... better now.

[JMon]

Nice one! Hopefully get back on track with this one

just wow..ronald. What a bad run you are on in Best Bets. One freakin point. Keep grinding you will get out of it. Look at Mako, he popped off six straight wins.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 78-70-3 52.7% (+3.39) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 0-5 (-5.42)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)

1. JMon - 14-13-1 (+.60)

2. pip2 - 15-12 (+2.28)

3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)

4. Ronald S. - 9-14 (-5.83)

5. hyahya - 6-5-1 (+.45)

6. Mako-SBR - 13-12 (-.20)

7. Heart - 3-1 (+1.92)

8. Consigliere - 8-5-1 (+2.65)

9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)

10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it!