Originally Posted by
sando
AFL
Probably some total's later. Was pretty keen on West Coast/Collingwood under 180 tonight, but can't quite pull the trigger. More worried about West Coast than the Pies in regards to an under, they are such an offensively focused team, and they leak goals like a champ. So much for their vaunted "forward press" of only 2 seasons ago. Still debating this one and working on other totals.
Adelaide v Melbourne
The D's with their strongest line-up of the season. Huge in's strengthening the D's across the board, with the Toumpas and Rodan it the midfield, defensive general Frawley at FB, and Dawes, Pederson and rising star nomination Viney in the forward line (back last week). Actually the D's forward line looks particularly good this week, with big man Dawes at FF, young Viney (a star in the making), Sylvia, Pederson and of course Jack Watts, with Howe and the Toumpas rotating through. Next year when they get Mitch Clarke back they will actually have a gun forward line, the problem is the rest of the team blow's, especially the midfield. How ugly it would be if you took Nathan Jones out of the engine room...? The Crows of course a superior team however nothing left to play for this year other than pride. Raining all day here in Adelaide. It's expected to be a nice day tomorrow, however the ground will still probably be wet, poor drainage at Aami, game could be messy. Regardless I can see the Crows winning by 30-50, don't think they will have it all their own way.
1.5* Melbourne +64.5 ($1.93 Bet365)
Geelong v Sydney
1* Geelong to win by 1-39 ($2.25 Sportsbet)
Carlton v Essendon
1* Essendon to win by 1-39 ($3.85 Bet365)
Probably one of the only punter's in Australia on the 'Dons - good, just how I like it. Big in's (Ryder, Hurley, Myers). Hurley's inclusion makes Crameri so much more valuable, a really good 1-2 punch together. Taking the field this week will probably be so welcoming for the Bombers, like an escape to put all this god damn crap behind them (at least for a few hours) and just do what they are supposed to do. Massive over reaction in the betting markets make Carlton a terrible play in my humble opinion. What a bizzare game this AFL - where the way teams are viewed can change extraordinarily from week to week. Heppell is a massive out for the dons and Kreuzer is a big in for the Blues, however have people forgotten to actually look at the team lists? Yes the Bombers are in terrible form, however they still have a superior playing list to Carlton - cannot even be argued. If the Bombers win it will surely be by less than 40, so to get $3.85 on what is essentially a m/l bet to me is outstanding value - as good as it gets in a two horse race.
St Kilda v Gold Coast
1* Gold Coast to win by 1-39 ($2.55 Luxbet)
North Melbourne v Hawthorn
1* North 1st Half +10.5 ($1.91 Sportingbet)
1* North 1st Half m/l ($2.80 Luxbet)
Revenge? Can comfortably go with the Hawks for at least the 1st half and will be surprised if they aren't leading at half time to be honest.