Originally Posted by
sando
Haven’t done any totals yet. Just crunching spreads. Will probably have some totals plays in NRL/AFL later and will add some comments on my AFL plays too.
NRL
Tigers @ Sharks
3.3* Sharks -5.5 ($1.94 Luxbet)
With 5 or 6 former Tigers in the Sharks line-up they will be primed for a big game against their former club. No Gallen – No problem. Sharks forwards Lewis and Fifita are in rare form and the Sharks boast one of the best bench’s in the NRL with Gibbs and Bukuya both coming off the pine as impact players and wait until they start bringing Fifita's "little" brother off the bench as well. Carney has publicly stated his frustration at being snubbed for Origin and in these situations you would usually expect him to come out and have a big game. Playing at Sharks stadium is a big plus, the Sahrkies are very tough at home. Also Gordon and Ryan big in’s for the Sharks. The Tigers run ends tonight.
Roosters @ Dragons
1.5* Roosters -11.5 ($1.94 Pinnacle)
No Dugan, no Cooper, no form, no confidence, no chance . The question is simply how much do the Bondi boys win by? Maloney returns, SBW is unstoppable at the moment, key enforcer JWH is back to lead the Roosters pack. The Roosters with a massive advantage in the halves with origin pairing Pearce/Maloney taking on no frills duo Fien/Stanley with Fein usually playing hooker and Stanley usually playing in the centres. The roosters have the best 1-7 in the league, star studded at every position through the ¾ line and the halves and with the games next super-star getting better and better every game – 20 year old Roger Tuivasi-Sheck – the next big thing in the NRL and you heard it here first.
Rabbitohs v Warriors (Perth)
2.5* Rabbitohs -8.5 ($1.93 Bet 365)
Rabbitohs the #1 attack in the league with a full strength squad taking on the in form Warriors who have the 3rd worst defence in the league. There will be points in this game. The weather is expected to be fine for football and should not play a major factor. I will be having a good look at the total in this game as well, despite being set rather high at 44, I still have an early lean towards the Over. I have been riding the Warriors current hot streak, having played them at the m/l as a big dog against the Roosters and also the m/l against the Sea Eagles. I am always intrigued by this Warriors team and follow them closely, however this Souths squad at full strength are just fearsome with a significant advantage in the forwards and a massive advantage in the halves, as Sutton and Reynolds just move from strength to strength every week and read/understand each other so well and have probably surpassed Foran/Cherry-Evans as the league’s best halves pairing. Only through the ¾ line do the Warriors have a slight advantage with game breakers Hurrell and Vatuvei, however the Beast is struggling with leg injury and is unlikely to be at 100% and also as great as the Hurricane (Hurrell) is on attack, he is a continuing defensive liability and I can guarantee you Coach Maguire will be sending big boppers at Hurrell all day down the left edge to test his defence and tire him. The Warriors have a very nice pack, however their key enforcer Packer is also under an injury cloud and when you have to deal with not just one of the world’s most dangerous forwards leading the Souths pack in Sam Burgess, but also both of his twin brothers – 120kg behemoths George & Thomas coming off the bench (for the first time) and just charging at the defensive line again and again allowing no respite for the Warriors forwards, who also have to deal with Origin forwards Ben T’eo, Chris McQueen, and the super dangerous Issac Luke constantly bursting out of dummy half and looking to earn offside penalties and the Warriors will find themselves doing a lot of defending in their own half, with Reynolds pin-point kicking game pushing them back and earning repeat sets. Of course there is also Sutton and Inglis, who are both built like second rowers and will test the Warriors line in their red zone plenty themselves. Why do you think Souths look so good this season? It’s the same old story in Rugby League, the forwards do all the work and the backs get all the glory. Greg Inglis is just 1 man, and who the hell are Everingham, Goodwin, Walker, have you ever heard of these guys? It is because the Souths forward pack is SO dominant that these backs look SO good, as the halves and the ¾ line have so much time and space to think and hence to create. When you watch South Sydney play you are watching one of the best forward packs ever assembled - that is why they are so dominant, not because of GI and his mates, they are simply the “icing onthe cake”.
Warriors to get bought back down to earth this week by a Souths team that is at FULL strength for the first time in quite a while and everybody is playing hard for their spots such is the depth coming through at Redfern at the moment.
AFL
Carlton v Collingwood
1.5* Carlton -6.5 ($1.93 Pinnacle)
Suns @ Lions
2.5* Lions -11.5 (Pinnacle $1.96)
0.5* Lions (to win by) 25+ ($2.70 Bet365)
0.25* Lions (to win by) 40+ ($4.50 Bet365)
Sydney @ Melbourne
1.1* Swans 1st Quarter -13.5 ($1.90)
1.5* Swans -59.5(Pinnacle $2.02)
West Coast @ Adelaide
1.1* Eagles +9.5 ($1.92 Luxbet)
1* Eagles (to win by) 1-39 ($2.85 Luxbet)
Gelong v Hawthorn
2* Hawks 1st Half -3 ($1.88 Luxbet)
1.1* Hawks -6.5 ($1.90 Bet365)
Netball
Firebirds @ Vixens
1* Firebirds m/l ($2.00 Centrebet)