1. #1
    andre gomes
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    WNBA Thursday previews

    Atlanta vs Houston

    The most important fact in here is that Atlanta is only a 4.5 points dog and in fact this is the shortest spread that Atlanta has ever had. The shortest so until now was being a 5.5 points dog against Chicago, Atlanta eventually lost that game by 72-86. Itís hard to back Atlanta with such a short spread, but they have made two good games against two major forces of the Eastern, Connecticut and Detroit, and when I thought that they could be competitive against Phoenix at home they were slaughtered by 79-97.
    Houston on the other side comes to this game from a loss at Connecticut, after a streak of 4 consecutive wins, with always being the underdog! They lost their last game and failed to cover the spread in a weird way, as I remember they were up by 8 at halftime and in the final minute the score was 68-72. Not less important is that the Comets were without 2 important role players: the Star Tina Thompson and also Mwadi Mabika.
    Houston is playing great with great defense and commitment. Atlanta loves to play wide and with a fast pace; this is the reason for some good covers lately by Atlanta: high scoring games, something that Houston wonít allow for sure. Both teams played each other early on the season with Houston winning by 88-79, but Atlanta covered that ballgame (+10.5). I lean here on Houston because Atlanta isnít possible to back with such a short spread.

    San Antonio vs Sacramento

    Surprisingly or not, Sacramento comes to this game while being a great investment to a bettor lately, as they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last game, with their offense being just smocking as they are 5-0 Over in their last 5 games. Today they travel to Texas to play against San Antonio, which is also in a good mood, after winning 7 of last 10 games and covering in all their victories.
    Sacramento defeated SA in the opening game of the season by 73-64, so this is a revenge game for San Antonio. I remember that the home team won the last 8 games between these teams, so isnít hard to guess that San Antonio will come fired up to this game, but with 6.5 points to cover, it is harder to back them. Even though Sacramento lost their last 2 games as dogs, they covered the ballgame (Indiana and Minny) and in fact they are 5-3 ATS in the road. San Antonio defeated Detroit in their last game, showing some heart after coming back late in the game, send it to overtime and then Becky Hammon took over the game. I lean on San Antonio in here, but I think 6.5 points may be too much for them to cover.

    Seattle vs New York

    If you think the Liberty winning at LA was an huge upset in their last game, this was even more surprising, taking in account that New York outscored the Sparks 38-16 in the last quarter. Basically they entered into the fourth quarter losing by 11 and won the game by 11 points (89-78). This was their first real road win (the other was Atlanta) and now theyíll be facing Seattle, which is well rested for this game.
    8 of the 9 wins of Seattle this season were at home and in their last game they slaughtered Washington by 64-49. I also must remind you that Seattle lost in New York in one of their worst games of the season, so I expect a Seattle team to come fired up and ready to take revenge. This is a team that is 5-1 when they get 3 days to rest, which is the case in here; maybe this game can be also a letdown for the Liberty after their great win at LA.

    Los Angeles vs Minnesota


    Are the Sparks team for real? I mean, they lost outright their last two games after being favored by 12 and 9.5 points! For sure the coach Michael Cooper must have told something to their players in the locker room, especially after LA being outscored 38-16 in the last quarter against New York.
    Today they receive a young team of Minnesota, which is struggling right now, with their leading star Augustus being limited. They lost at SA by6 65-73 and then at home against Chicago by 71-73 and in fact they are 3-7 in their last 10 games and they are now heading to a game against LA, which will be claiming a bounce back. This wonít be easy for the Lynx at all. I expect a bounce back for LA for tonight in here.

  2. #2
    louisvillekid
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    I'm biting on the Min/LA ov 155.5 and the Silver Stars at -6, the SA line has me curious cause it shows it opened at Pinnacle at -8 and now it's down to -6, but i don't see any injuries, and the Stars have been solid at home this year.

  3. #3
    andre gomes
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    Quote Originally Posted by louisvillekid View Post
    I'm biting on the Min/LA ov 155.5 and the Silver Stars at -6, the SA line has me curious cause it shows it opened at Pinnacle at -8 and now it's down to -6, but i don't see any injuries, and the Stars have been solid at home this year.
    yep, it's strange

  4. #4
    andre gomes
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    Sacramento Monarchs @ San Antonio Silver Stars

    This will be a game between two teams who have been playing well recently with San Antonio being 7-3 in their last 10 games and Sacramento 6-4 in the same span. However there is a different in what these two teams made in those games. San Antonio has been beating the best teams in the league, comes from a big win at home over Detroit and itís important to remember that they are 8-1 at home, covering the spread in all wins. Itís also important to say that they have faced teams with positive records in six of these home games. The team is the second best defense of the league, just behind Seattle and they have been using this argument to win the games.

    On the other side, Sacramento comes from two home wins against New York and Washington and the team is having a good offensive moment right now, as they are 5-0 Over in their last five games. However in the last game, even though they scored 87 points against the Mystics, the team also allowed the worst offense of the league to score 81 points. Thatís not a good sign, as against San Antonio they wonít be able to score so many points. This will be the second game of the season between these two teams, with Sacramento winning the first game of the series by 73-64. This is a big rivalry game and the proof of that is that the home team has won all eight games in this series. In my research, Iíve found a good trend which supports my idea about this game:

    Play On - Home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a loss versus opponent against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite (48-20 since 1997.)

    San Antonio is a team which ends the game in great fashion and they also have a great FT % (2nd best in the league). So, with 6 points to be covered today, I think the value is clearly on the Silver Stars. I'm taking San Antonio - 6 in here.

  5. #5
    louisvillekid
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    just knew something was fishy with the Sac/SA game, went against my better judgment and played it even though when i was looking for the %'s of bets going each way earlier today, the other 3 games all had %'s but this game had a N/A. just knew it looked to good to be true with the Silver Stars tearing it up at home.

    for the game
    .....SA............Sac
    FG% 50%.........37.3%
    3Pt% 33.3%.......23.1%
    FT% 75%..........66.7%

    TO 21........9
    steals 0......2

    kinda hard to cover much less pull out a win when you turn it over more than 2-1

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