Here is my year long post for my NBA system plays.
Please consider the following if you decide to follow my plays:
1. Money Management is crucial. I do not put more than 0.5% of my bankroll on any one game.
2. I don't put any more weight on one game over another. My analysis looks for large situational variables and tries to take into account the biggest sample size possible. I would NOT RECOMMEND picking select games based on my handicapping. I would play all of them or none.
4. I have tried to develop a system that fits into my lifestyle. Most of my picks will come out about an hour or so before the first game of the day. There may me m,multiple plays as different variables change throughout the day. You can follow me on twitter @captnumbers if you want to get my plays immediately.
5. When I do put my picks out, the line will be based on either 5dimes, Matchbook, or Bet Jamaica, as these are the books I play. Juice is extremely important in winning overall. I highly recommend finding a book that will give you reduced juice in order to gain maximum EV. If I put out a play, I will not let the line paralyze you. If I got it at +7 and it is now +6, I would still personally make the play. I don't play games if I feel the line is that close to making the difference. Don't let it paralyze you if you can't get the exact same line. I am a believer that if a play falls within my system, I will make the play getting the best odds possible I can.
6. I have 2 different systems that involve playing the same games. One game is a straight One Unit per game system while the other is a modified chase system. I hesitate to call it a "chase" system, but I use different variables relating to my overall results to determine the units I will be betting on each game for that system. The chase system is conservative so if we have a good consistent season I may not have to chase at all.
7. I will be posting "A" plays and "B" plays. All of the "A" plays will be 100% plays that I make myself. The "B" plays are moneyline plays that I believe have value but do not have enough data back tested to support my theory. I will be putting out these plays just for record keeping purposes. Remember, I am a handicapper who looks for +EV. This definitely plays a huge factor in the "B" plays.
8. Please feel free to ask questions or comment on any of my posts. I love to discuss the theory used in my sports betting.
9. Finally, have fun and enjoy yourself. If you aren't doing that then you are probably wagering more than you should be. Good luck to all.
10-27-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each) Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
Tier A Plays +0.00 Units
711 Sacramento +3.5 -104 - W
717 Charlotte +6.5 +102 - L
Overall YTD Results Straight Up +0.00 Units Modified Chase +0.00 Units ********** Tier A +0.00 Units / +0.00 Units 1-1 – 50.0% ********** Tier B +0.00 Units / +0.00 Units 0-0 – 0.0 %
10-29-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each) Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
Tier A Plays
701 Indiana +4.5 -101
709 NY Knicks +9 +105
721 LA Clippers +5.5 -105
Tier B Plays (Only for Record Keeping)
701 Indiana +176(ML)
721 LA Clippers +213(ML)
As a reminder, I am only putting out the Tier B plays for record keeping purposes. I believe there is a good chance there is value in the plays but need to collect much more data before I will start making the plays myself. Best of luck to all!
-CN
10-29-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each) +1.00 Units Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each) +1.00 Units
Tier A Plays +1.00 Units
701 Indiana +4.5 -101 - W
709 NY Knicks +9 +105 - W
721 LA Clippers +5.5 -105 - L
Tier B Plays (Only for Record Keeping) +0.76 Units
701 Indiana +176(ML) - W
721 LA Clippers +213(ML) - L
Overall YTD Results Straight Up +1.00 Units Modified Chase +1.00 Units ********** Tier A +1.00 Units / +1.00 Units 3-2 – 60.0% ********** Tier B (Only for Record Keeping) +0.76 Units 1-1 – 50.0 %
10-30-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each) +1.00 Units Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each) +1.00 Units
Tier A Plays +1.00 Units
501 Washington +9 -102 - W
505 Portland -5 -102 - P
Overall YTD Results Straight Up +2.00 Units Modified Chase +2.00 Units ********** Tier A +2.00 Units / +2.00 Units 4-2-1 – 66.7% ********** Tier B (Only for Record Keeping) +0.76 Units 1-1 – 50.0 %
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CaptNumbers 2010-2011 NBA Thread
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