-
Comment -
I suspect you have played more than just my plays, so I'm not sure your tough start can be solely attributed to tailing losing plays. I know my buddy red likes the action, so I suspect there have have been a few more plays than you are letting on
You know what I say though....dont tail, just use my threads as a reference.
Either way, i'm sure you will get it straightened out.
Personally, i'm satisfied with my start so far. 55% and almost +7x about 1/5th through the regular season puts me right on pace for my seasonal goals. We'll get there
. LOL, you bet bro. My post was not implying that I am down do to tailing, perhaps I worded it poorly. What I was saying is that I have been mushing your plays 
, and my own plays have obviously been poor thus far this season. Keep on grinding bro, as stated above, gonna try and take my hex off you 
.
Comment -
Hey red, u got a college hoops thread?Comment -
No sir. As a "gut/observer" bettor in most sports I don't feel it is prudent to have a thread as I truthfully just don't feel confident enough to be recommending plays on a consistent basis. If I feel strongly enough about a play I'll usually discuss it in LTA's thread. In baseball I chime in a bit more because I actually crunch numbers and feel more comfortable that the plays are at least "educated" guesses. I think the only way to be profitable long term is the way LTA goes about it (and you too in Football), setting his own lines and comparing them to the books to see where there is +ev. I just don't have the time, or am not willing to make the time, to go through that....it is a lot of work, I don't know how LTA manages it with a full time job and family
. I am more of an action junkie that bets to enjoy the games more.......although over the years I have done ok. Honestly, since following LTA I have taken on a different approach (for the most part) and have treated the wagering with more discipline and the results have been positive.
P.S. Much of my success in NCAA hoops has been following the steam and hitting the number before it changes on my slow moving book - hitting like 60% on the season thus far. It is amazing over the growing sample size of plays I am tracking how often the line movement changes a loser to a winner or to a push.
Comment -
I understand bro. Ill be riding LTA an you all thru nba and mlb. Football is really the only sport i feel confident picking as of now. Have no clue about hoops. Good luck today!Comment -
Its going to be crazy when mlb starts up in april when we have full cards in both nba and mlb. I always appreciate your contribution and will lean on you a lot when mlb starts. Our analysis of pitching is pretty similar.No sir. As a "gut/observer" bettor in most sports I don't feel it is prudent to have a thread as I truthfully just don't feel confident enough to be recommending plays on a consistent basis. If I feel strongly enough about a play I'll usually discuss it in LTA's thread. In baseball I chime in a bit more because I actually crunch numbers and feel more comfortable that the plays are at least "educated" guesses. I think the only way to be profitable long term is the way LTA goes about it (and you too in Football), setting his own lines and comparing them to the books to see where there is +ev. I just don't have the time, or am not willing to make the time, to go through that....it is a lot of work, I don't know how LTA manages it with a full time job and family. I am more of an action junkie that bets to enjoy the games more.......although over the years I have done ok. Honestly, since following LTA I have taken on a different approach (for the most part) and have treated the wagering with more discipline and the results have been positive.
P.S. Much of my success in NCAA hoops has been following the steam and hitting the number before it changes on my slow moving book - hitting like 60% on the season thus far. It is amazing over the growing sample size of plays I am tracking how often the line movement changes a loser to a winner or to a push.
Geez....its almost time to start prepping for the mlb season.
Comment -
Thanks bro! I wish they had pulled off the win. Not like evans to let that one get away, and as for cundiff, what can u say? Looking forward to this matchup tho.Comment -
LTA, i'm leaning Dallas/Phx over 193, Memphis/GS under 195, and Chicago/NJ under 187. Any thoughts guys?Comment -
Leaning washington and jersey. But those are just "gut" plays as red would call them. Also like a hornets/pistons tease.Comment -
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/23/2012
Play #1
Warriors (-1.5) 1x (Locked)
No time for a full writeup. GS has very similar numbers offensively to Memphis, but is not as good defensively. However, GS is coming off 2 days of rest while Memphis is in a fatigue spot playing their third game in four nights with a look-ahead game tomorrow against Portland. I suspect we see max effort from the warriors, but a bit less than max from the tired grizz. From a line reading perspective, the grizz have been road faves for the last three games against hornets, detroit and sac town and covered in each. Yet in this game they are underdogs against the warriors who are not much better than those three teams. Hmmm...the books begging for memphis money here and are getting 70%+ of the action on the grizz yet the line movement so far supports the warriors. Based on an even offensive matchup and the tired legs of memphis, plus the look ahead spot, this is a great situational spot to back the warriors and i'm rolling with them for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Maybe i'm reading this wrong LTA, but I have memphis getting about 55% of the action and memphis opened at -1. This line does have me scratching my head though. According to numbers, Memphis should be favored by 2 so I don't think the opening line was too far off but the fact that they were immediately bet to become the underdog of +1/+1.5, it seems like the "sharps" are on your side. BOL on your playComment -
Yeah, I went the other way as well. Memphis had off yesterday. Time enough to enjoy their crushing of the Kings on their own court. I guess this might be a trap game for Memphis but I don't see how they over look the Warriors. I have the Grizz winning by at least 4 but I am new to this.
Comment -
Check your source....memphis getting 70%+ at sportspy, scores/odds and sports insights. Memphis is one of the bigger "public" (and I hate that label) today.
Mem opened at +1 and has since moved to +1.5. Not huge movement, but if it goes to +2 GS is clearly the play. Ask yourself why they are dogs today, when they have been road faves against similar teams to GS?Comment -
Now MEM it's +2Comment -
GL tonight LTA, that GS line says it all.
Comment -
I was going to point out same thing. I like NO +4.5 (SAS being bad on the road, NO fights till the last second, sharp money on NO)Comment -
Hey LTA - With Warriors currently at -2, would you recommend taking the ML at -123? Seems like a decent price.Comment -
Hey LTA, I've been following your threads and enjoying your dialogues for a few months now. I'm fairly new to betting(other than those trips to Vegas), and I occasionally I play teasers. On Saturday I opened a 15 team, 13pt football, 10pt BB teaser, $200 to win $1750. Not a huge wager to all, but enough to get me nervous about blowing it.
My question is whether the value is there for the Warriors +8 (past the key number of 7 right?) or whether you would have a different strategy for picking the game.
Thanks in advance to all who provide some incite on this.Comment -
based on:
Since February 1, 2010, visiting teams receiving less than 35% of public bets and getting 10 or more points have gone 44-20 (68.75%)...
i put some $$ on piston +13.5 and king +11
but maybe i'm to wait til game time and see final %.Comment -
Thank you, I agree.
Now I am not bashing anyone at all.......nor do i want to start bickering on here.........LTA i tail you everyday and i make $$ off it and im greatful for your picks, and i'm sure your a great guy and I bet you dont mind answering all these questions...
BUT......
This is not LTA's NBA Q&A.
It's LTA's NBA Plays.
He looks into all the games, and compiles a ton of research information and his capping skills are unquestionable, compiles his best plays of the day......if a game isnt in his plays that probably means he doesnt care for the game nor see value in any play regarding that game........as you can tell with some of his write-ups, he is a busy man who works enough at capping his own plays, not to cap games he does not care for, for internet strangers.
Stick to his guns, they will make you money, everyone can share opinions.....but you have to make your own decision when it comes to playing these games......Comment -
Just to be clear, I wasn't asking for him to make the play. I was asking if there was a particular strategy for this situation that someone was willing to share with a novice. I'm sure LTA knows that he is in no way obligated to respond to my post (if not, he does now).
That being said, I agree that this was the wrong place to post my question. Next time I will start a thread. Cheers and BOL.Comment -
Anyone have any info on D-Rose tonight?Comment -
Ive seen where Rose is probableComment -
I've just finished reading "Gaming the Game" & highly recommend it. It covers the Donaghy scandal from the point of view of the bookmaker who placed his bets. It's a very informative read about professional gambling as it goes into how books and the syndicates operate & make their cash, with smaller bettors like us & Joe Public caught in the middle.
Good luck today. I'm with you guys on GS & also have a small play on Wiz +13.5.Comment -
Rose is inComment -
Is this it for the night LT or do you think you might have some more plays later.Comment
