[ddittie]

**Pacers vs. Lakers: A Statistical Deep Dive into Today's Matchup**

As the Indiana Pacers prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Lakers on the road, a close analysis of their recent performances suggests an interesting outcome. Let's delve into the stats to uncover why the Pacers might be the smart bet in this matchup.

**Head-to-Head on Common Grounds**

A key point of comparison is how both teams have fared against common opponents – Miami, Philadelphia, and Utah. Interestingly, the Pacers and Lakers have mirrored each other in terms of wins and losses in these games, though with varying scores:
- Against Miami:
- Pacers: Lost 142-132
- Lakers: Lost 108-107
- Against Philadelphia:
- Pacers: Lost 137-126
- Lakers: Lost 138-94
- Against Utah:
- Pacers: Won 134-118
- Lakers: Won 131-99
This symmetry in outcomes sets a fascinating backdrop for their upcoming encounter.

**Average Points Analysis**
The scoring averages for both teams also tell a story:
- Pacers' Average Points Scored Per Game: Approximately 128.4
- Pacers' Average Points Allowed Per Game: Approximately 124.9
- Lakers' Average Points Scored Per Game: Approximately 113.13
- Lakers' Average Points Allowed Per Game: Approximately 111.96

Despite ESPN's prediction favoring the Lakers with a 54% win probability against the Pacers' 46%, the numbers might hint at a different narrative.

**Betting Odds and Performance**

The current betting odds stand at -4.5 for the Lakers, with a total at 241.5. This suggests an expectation of the Lakers scoring around 123 points to the Pacers' 118. However, digging deeper, we find that:
- The Pacers have scored 118 points or more in 80% of their games, with a 12-4 record in such instances.
- The Lakers, although 5-1 when scoring 123 points or more, have only reached this score in 26% of their games.

**Exceeding the Average**

Considering how often each team surpasses their average points per game:
- The Pacers have scored 128 points or more in 50% of their games.
- The Lakers have scored 113 points or more in 39% of their games.

**Conclusion and Betting Advice**

Taking all this data into account, two trends emerge. First, there's a high likelihood that both teams won’t hit their average points, potentially making this game fall under the total. Secondly, the Pacers seem to be a wise choice, especially given the oddsmakers' adjustment for a positive ROI on ML bets (+150) influenced(maybe?) by the Lakers' popularity.

In summary, while the Lakers might be the popular choice, the statistics tilt in favor of the Pacers, both in terms of outright win and point scoring. Remember, in sports betting, numbers often reveal more than public sentiment.

1st Choice - Pacers +4.5 (2 Units)
2nd Choice - Pacers ML +150 (1 Unit)
3rd Choice - Under 241.5 (1 Unit)
Good luck with your bets!

https://imgur.com/h4B2MUJ

[hawkwind]

Good Review & Thx GL & I'm tailing

[Mr KLC]

I'm looking at the psychological aspect of this. LeBron wants the attention on him. He wants to be on the team that wins the first in-season tourney. He wants to add this to his legacy. He is not going to let himself be denied the limelight. Crowd will be 90% Laker fans.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Spot on KLC. I believe that LeBron is approaching this tourney as if it's the playoffs and a little bit of that is carrying over to the rest of the team whereas the Pacers, like most teams, don't see it as being nearly as important. Unfortunately, that seems to be baked into the line.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Spot on KLC. I believe that LeBron is approaching this tourney as if it's the playoffs and a little bit of that is carrying over to the rest of the team whereas the Pacers, like most teams, don't see it as being nearly as important. Unfortunately, that seems to be baked into the line.

500K to the winning players for the team with one of the lowest payrolls in league make it very important to the Pacers I would assume.

[texhooper]

Pacers clearly care about this and they’re playing the underdog card pretty strong and they’ve been open about wanting to show the world who they are. So don’t bet against them based on the idea that they don’t care about this or want it badly.

That said I tend to agree with KLC. I don’t think Lebron will be denied this accolade that no one before him was able to get. We’ve never in our lives seen a 39 year old ball out of control like this. As much as I don’t want to admit it, he is truly truly special. I’d be surprised if the bitch ass Lakers lost

[lakerboy]

Spot on KLC. I believe that LeBron is approaching this tourney as if it's the playoffs and a little bit of that is carrying over to the rest of the team whereas the Pacers, like most teams, don't see it as being nearly as important. Unfortunately, that seems to be baked into the line.

Pacers get to the final but don't see it as being important? Make it make sense.

They will lose probably and we all know why. Not the reason you said.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

The Pacers are motivated but not as much as LeBron is, if you have any brains that should make sense.

[JIBBBY]

Lakers are balling right now. End of deep depth capping session. Lakers for the win!

[Headsterx]

The Pacers are motivated but not as much as LeBron is, if you have any brains that should make sense.

Hell yeah! X factor = LeBron’s not being denied. He wants this new NBA cup and nothing is gonna deny him of it.

[stevenash]

Well written post from the OP.
Appreciate that.

[lakerboy]

The Pacers are motivated but not as much as LeBron is, if you have any brains that should make sense.

Yeah they are not as motivated yet they beat the two best teams in the East. It's not motivation that's the main factor here. It's just meant to be for LeBron. That's all. Just in case it isn't about to happen the guys that aren't playing will help.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Beating the top two isn't that big a deal when you consider today's wide open league and they were fortunate to get the Celtics at home instead of in Boston (10-0 home, 6-5 road). Not saying they don't care but to LeBron, and by extension the rest of the Lakers, this is the playoffs; I don't think the Pacers see it as quite that important.

[JIBBBY]

Lakers are balling right now. End of deep depth capping session. Lakers for the win!

Bump, cover and cash... Easy peasy!

Don't even need to cap this shit in depth. Save the trouble and Just ride the hot streaks. If a stacked team is on a mission and winning lately you ride it in any sport.




https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/indiana...rs-2023120913/

[ddittie]

Bump, cover and cash... Easy peasy!

Don't even need to cap this shit in depth. Save the trouble and Just ride the hot streaks. If a stacked team is on a mission and winning lately you ride it in any sport.

I didn't watch the game and don't follow basketball anymore (I bet based on statistics because I don't enjoy watching basketball at all), but based on the records, both teams were on three-game win streaks. It just happened to go the wrong way today. The Pacers shot the ball terribly from the field, only making 35% of their shots. That's a significant 16% shooting difference compared to their opponent, and they also lost out significantly in rebounds.

Honestly, after submitting my post last night, I had some second thoughts, mainly because of the Pacers' record of scoring 118 points or more 80% of the time. An 80% rate is exceptionally high. In fact, there are only four teams that average more than 118 points per game, with the Pacers being at the top of the league in points per game. So, I had this creeping feeling that they would score fewer points to regress toward the actual mean. Scoring 128 points per game over the course of the season would be an extraordinary achievement.
As the season progresses, in my opinion, current season stats become increasingly important. It's still early, though. I typically don't even start betting in the NFL until after week 10.

The oversight on the uber high scoring is my fault, but it's a great learning lesson. Over the past 7 seasons in the NBA, I believe 120 pts per game is the best there is.

Anyhow, 1-2 down 2 units.