[Pattycakes0909]

Anu over/under picks?..thanks?

I do not plan to in game 1, but as the series progresses, I may later in the series. History shows the last 6 matchups (over last 4 seasons) between these two teams, in San Antonio, have been all over the board from a "totals" standpoint, with totals at 220, 174, 190, 202, 218, and 198....no trends, no consistency.....From the eye test, both teams can score and defend well, and are pretty good all-around squads....From just the eye test, I would lean over, but history also says in the last 5 seasons, betting under's in game 1's has been decently profitable. This makes me stay away from it in game 1...Hope this helps...BOL if you do bet it

[boydako13]

Thanks Patty!..BOL to u too!!

[Pattycakes0909]

First play of the Finals :

Spurs -3 (1.0 Units) - Spurs have covered this number in 3 of the last 4 matchups between these two teams in San Antonio, and actually won the three meetings all by double digits. Both teams will be ready, but I see San Antonio coming out and taking care of business in Game 1. In addition, the Spurs have had the best Home Court margin in the NBA this year, averaging winning by 10.2/ppg in that arena....While the Heat are a good team on the road, with a margin of +2.2 ppg, I don't see them coming in and winning game 1. We roll with S.A.

Better get on this quick, line is already at 4.0 or 4.5 and may hit -5 by tip

[Pattycakes0909]

Spurs ML @ -170 (0.75 Units) - See description above for Spurs -3

Spurs 1st Qtr. -1.5 (0.40 Units) - In the last 4 seasons between these two teams when meeting in San Antonio, the Spurs have covered this spread in 5 of the 6 meetings. In addition, the Spurs were ranked 2nd in the NBA in 1st Qtr. Margin this year at +2.65 points, and even better at home with +3.52 points. I see them coming out and wanting to set the tone early at home. No doubt the fans will be ready too.

Spurs 1st Qtr. ML (0.30 Units) - See description above

Spurs 1st Half -2.5 (0.50) Units) - Same as the 1st Qtr. stats....In the last 4 seasons between these two teams when meeting in San Antonio, the Spurs have covered this spread in 5 of the 6 meetings, by an average of just over seven points at the half....In addition, the Spurs were the #1 team this year in 1st half margin at +5.2, and #1 at home, with +7.6....We are taking this

Spurs 1st Half ML (0.25 Units) - See description above

Same....very little vig to pay right now, will be more closer to tip....BOL

[Pattycakes0909]

Alternate Line: Spurs -8.5 @ +210 (0.25 Units) - Spurs have won by double digits over Miami in 4 of their last 6 matchups in San Antonio over the last four years....In addition, I really just feel like the Spurs will come out extremely sharp tonight.

Alternate Line: Spurs -12.5 @ +300 (0.25 Units) - Spurs have covered this total in 3 of the last 6 matchups between these two teams in San Antonio....At these odds, it is worth a small play.

[Pattycakes0909]

Spurs Over 101.5 (0.40 Units) - Spurs have cleared this total in four of the last six matchups in S.A., and are averaging 107 ppg at home this year....The last two matchups in S.A., the Spurs have scored 111 and 114, so getting over 101.5 has value.

Heat Under 97.5 (0.30 Units) - Heat have not cleared this total in 4 of their last 6 trips to S.A., and I expect the Spurs depth to be able to better defend this Heat team, who never even reached this total on the road against the Pacers last round in any of the three matchups....In my mind, worth a small play.

[Pattycakes0909]

Big night tonight with 10 plays above....Will only have a live bet if I see something mis-priced.....

Risking 4.40 Units to win 4.46 Units....BOL tonight

So far through playoffs, record is 159-135-13 for a +17.01 Units.

1st Round - 91-62-3 for a +20.38 Units
2nd Round - 23-41-7 for a -10.80 Units
3rd Round - 45-31-4 for a +7.43 Units

[Pattycakes0909]

Live: End of 3rd Qtr. Heat 78 Spurs 74

Spurs +2 @ -110 (0.25 Units)

Spurs ML @ +110 (0.25 Units)

[Pattycakes0909]

Live: Heat 85 Spurs 79 9:38 left in 4th

Spurs ML @ +227 (0.25 Units) -
Shutting down laptop for the night, no more bets

[Pattycakes0909]

Well a 13-0-0 night is not a bad thing....Had to start the ol' laptop up to post that one.....LETS GO!!!!

[Pattycakes0909]

Thread Update: Could not have started better in Game 1 of the finals....After a perfect day today, this brings the overall playoff thread record to 172-135-13 for a +22.54 Units overall.....

1st Round - 91-62-3 for a +20.38 Units
2nd Round - 23-41-7 for a -10.80 Units
3rd Round - 45-31-4 for a +7.43 Units
4th Round - 13-0-0 for a +5.53 Units

As does every body else on SBR, will have plays for game 2....just make sure you are following the right folks....BOL

[boydako13]

Nice hit Patty...thanks!!

[mohye1980]

Nicely done Nostradamus !!!!!

[Pattycakes0909]

1st Play of Game 2:

Spurs ML @-180 (0.75 Units) - Spurs have won the last three home matchups against the Heat by double digits, and won 5 of the last 7 home matchups overall. While a double digit win is probably too much to ask, the Spurs are a great home team, and if you want further stats, read my descriptions for game 1....I know the Heat were up 6 points with 6:30 to go when Lebron went down with cramps, and who knows how that game would have turned out if he did not have to sit the remainder of the game, but the fact of the matter is the Spurs took care of business. In addition, I doubt the Spurs will have 20+ turnover's for game 2....Things will be a lot cleaner and I expect them to take much better care of the ball. This game will be close, but we go with the Spurs to take care of business again.

2 Team, 5 Point Teaser - Spurs +0.5 and Spurs/Heat over 193.5 (0.60 Units) - I expect the Spurs to win game 2, and I just do not see how these teams do not get to at least 194....In reality, the last 4 matchups between these teams in San Antonio have gotten to at least 198, and three of the matchups have cleared 202....It is worth a play in my mind.

Of course more plays to come before tip on Sunday evening. BOL

[boydako13]

BOL l!!

[Pattycakes0909]

Spurs -4 (0.50 Units)

Will have some quarter and halftime bets I like tomorrow as well, in addition to the bets above....BOL

[Pattycakes0909]

Spurs 1st Half ML @-145 (0.40 Units)

Spurs 1st Half -2 (0.30 Units) - Spurs have covered this number is 6 of the last 7 matchups against the Heat, in S.A., in the 1st half, and I think this trend will continue tonight. Spurs should play a cleaner brand of basketball, and although the Heat are a decent road team, it is just tough to come into S.A. and win. Spurs also had the #1 home 1st half margin in the NBA this year, leading by an average of over 7 points @ the half.

[Pattycakes0909]

Spurs 1st Qtr. ML @-145 (0.30 Units)

Spurs 1st Qtr -1 @-110 (0.30 Units) - Smaller plays here, but Spurs were the 2nd best home team this year in terms of average 1st quarter margin, and the trend shows the Spurs covering this spread in 6 of the last 7 first quarters between these teams in SA....We take it just like game 1

[Pattycakes0909]

Spurs Total over 101.5 (0.50 Units) - Spurs have gotten to at least 110 points in 4 of the last 5 home matchups with the Heat, and I see this continuing tonight.

[Pattycakes0909]

Spurs/Heat Over 199 (0.50 Units)

Alternate Line: Spurs/Heat Over 206.5 @+200 (0.25 Units)

[Pattycakes0909]

All bets for the evening posted over the last 48 hours, combined into one posting for organization…

Spurs 1st Qtr ML @-145 (0.30 Units)
Spurs 1st Qtr -1 @-110 (0.30 Units)
Spurs 1st Half ML @-145 (0.40 Units)
Spurs 1st Half -2 (0.30 Units)
Spurs ML @-180 (0.75 Units)
Spurs -4 (0.50 Units)
2 Team, 5 Point Teaser - Spurs +0.5 and Spurs/Heat over 193.5 (0.60 Units)
Spurs/Heat Over 199 (0.50 Units)
Alternate Line: Spurs/Heat Over 206.5 @+200 (0.25 Units)
Spurs Total over 101.5 (0.50 Units)

Risking 4.40 Units to win 3.87 Units
May have a live bet, only if I see real value or a mis-pricing….BOL tonight

[Pattycakes0909]

Live: 8:51 left in 4th qtr - Heat 83 Spurs 80

Spurs ML +102 (0.25 Units)

[Pattycakes0909]

Thread update:

Had a rough game 2, but going into Game three of the NBA finals, the overall playoff record sits at 174-143-14 for a +19.37 Units overall.....

1st Round - 91-62-3 for a +20.38 Units
2nd Round - 23-41-7 for a -10.80 Units
3rd Round - 45-31-4 for a +7.43 Units
4th Round - 15-8-1 for a +2.36 Units

Plays will be up in a few hours

[2qwik]

Thread update:

Had a rough game 2, but going into Game three of the NBA finals, the overall playoff record sits at 174-143-14 for a +19.37 Units overall.....

1st Round - 91-62-3 for a +20.38 Units
2nd Round - 23-41-7 for a -10.80 Units
3rd Round - 45-31-4 for a +7.43 Units
4th Round - 15-8-1 for a +2.36 Units

Plays will be up in a few hours

Leaning towards the under due to most of the games between these 2 in Miami have gone Under. However, it wouldn't be surprising if the tempo of the game is escalated due to Miami getting fastbreak points off the turnovers they will create more when playing at home. Spurs want to run the floor but Miami didn't want to run with them in San Antonio but with the crowd behind them they just may. I also like the spurs +4.5 soley on the reason that I think they are evenly matched teams. I think it will be tie or spurs with lead at halftime but scared of how Miami always gets fired up after halftime.

[Pattycakes0909]

Heat ML @ -190 (1.0 Units) - Heat have won their last 12 home playoff games. More importantly, the Heat have beat the Spurs in Miami in 7 out of the last 8 matchups (since the "big 3" were brought together in Miami), and beat them 3 out of 4 times last year in Miami in the Finals. I feel that Lebron will play great again tonight, scoring, getting his teammates involved, and although I see this being relatively close most of the way through, I feel confident in Miami pulling out a win at home this evening.

Heat 1st Qtr ML @ -140 (0.25 Units) - Heat are 5-2-1 in winning the first quarter at home against the Spurs since the "big 3" were put together, and were 3-0-1 in the Finals against them last year with this play at home. Worth a small play.

Heat 1st Half ML @ -160 (0.25 Units) - Heat are 6-2-0 in winning the first quarter at home against the Spurs since the "big 3" were put together, and were 3-1-0 in the Finals against them last year with this play at home. Again, Worth a small play.

[Pattycakes0909]

Leaning towards the under due to most of the games between these 2 in Miami have gone Under. However, it wouldn't be surprising if the tempo of the game is escalated due to Miami getting fastbreak points off the turnovers they will create more when playing at home. Spurs want to run the floor but Miami didn't want to run with them in San Antonio but with the crowd behind them they just may. I also like the spurs +4.5 soley on the reason that I think they are evenly matched teams. I think it will be tie or spurs with lead at halftime but scared of how Miami always gets fired up after halftime.

Ya, anything can happen in these games....You can do all the research and watch all you want, and there can still be times where you just didn't see something, or could be fluky game, anything.

[Pattycakes0909]

Adding this, but could have a live play later...BOL tonight

Heat -4 bought hook (0.60 Units) - The Heat have done well covering this number since the "big 3" were put together at home against the Spurs, going 6-2-0, and they should be fired up behind the home crowd tonight.

[Pattycakes0909]

Live: End of 1st Qtr: Spurs 41 Heat 25

Heat ML @+181 (0.25 Units)

[Pattycakes0909]

Live: 9:55 left in 2nd Qtr.: Spurs 48 Heat 28

Heat +9 (0.25 Units)

Heat ML @ +261 (0.25 Units)

[Pattycakes0909]

Live: 8:08 left in 2nd Qtr. Spurs 55 Heat 30

Heat ML @ +439 (0.10 Units)

[Pattycakes0909]

Thread Update: Horrendous game 3, looking to bounce back tonight. Playoff thread record now sits at 174-151-14 for a +16.42 Units overall.....

1st Round - 91-62-3 for a +20.38 Units
2nd Round - 23-41-7 for a -10.80 Units
3rd Round - 45-31-4 for a +7.43 Units
4th Round - 15-16-1 for a -0.59 Units

Will be posting plays in a bit, putting the last ones in now

[Pattycakes0909]

Heat ML @ -240 (0.60 Units)

Heat -5 @ -110 (0.50 Units)

Heat -9.5 @ +225 (0.25 Units)

Heat -13.5 @ +550 (0.15 Units)

Research supports the Heat have the upper hand at home against the Spurs over the last 4 seasons, and have not lost back to back playoff games at home in 3 seasons....If there was a team to beat this streak, it would be this years Spurs, but I think the Heat will play much better D tonight, and we will see a completely different night than game 3.

[Pattycakes0909]

If you take the Heat -13.5, do it at Sportsbook @ +550, instead of Bovada at +275.....Jesus, Bovada can be a cheap-ass sometimes

[Pattycakes0909]

Adding:

Another 0.40 Units on Heat ML @ -240, which makes it a total of 1.0 Units overall tonight on Heat ML

[JR007]