[sando]

NRL

1* Dragons 1-12 ($3.70 William Hill)

Yes this is a ballsy play. Yes I have watched the Dragons last 2 games where they have scored 0.
My predictive curve has the Titans fading and the Dragons rising this week.

BOOM! Nobody was on the dragons today. Everyone I saw had the Titans...

[BigNik]

Why are the dogs and warriors at evens?? Seems strange to me. Warriors are shit

[sando]

AFL

2* GWS ML ($1.97 Pinnacle)

NRL

2.5* Canberra v Cronulla Over 42 (Sportsbet)
(If you can only get -42.5 or -43.5, would recommend only playing for 1.5-2 units)

More plays to follow...

[Bill_Hicks]

Thank you Sando

[sando]

MMA 2016

(2016 4-3 +0.9 units)


UFC on Fox

1* Pennington
($1.48 Sportsbet - to win 1 unit, so risking just over 2)

Don't normally make plays on such low odds but Pennington is good & underrated, & Correia is overrated. Odds should be closer to $1.30-$1.35

[John Deere]

Sando what do you mean $1.48?

[sando]

UFC

1.5* Nurmagomedov via KO or Submission ($1.95 Luxbet)

Can get $1.72 at Sportsbet which is still pretty good. The $1.95 at Luxbet is just outstanding value...

[sando]

Sando what do you mean $1.48?

Mate it's decimal odds (approx -208 US). I used to post plays in both decimal & US, but I don't really have that big a following anymore (I think)?

[sando]

Let one (I think)

UFC

1* Swanson ($1.88 Luxbet)

Don't play for any less than $1.80. Look to be honest this is a shitty play & any who tail would be safer following just the first two UFC plays listed above. Late money is all for Dias & Swanson has looked poor lately, but I just can't stop myself pulling the trigger at almost evens (albeit for only a unit)

[sando]

MMA 2016

(2016 4-3 +0.9 units)


UFC on Fox

1* Pennington
($1.48 Sportsbet - to win 1 unit, so risking just over 2)

Don't normally make plays on such low odds but Pennington is good & underrated, & Correia is overrated. Odds should be closer to $1.30-$1.35

Wow a lot closer than I thought it would be. Butchy Beth looked good. We got lucky lads, but you need some luck to be a successful sports bettor...

[sando]

NRL

1* Melbourne -3.5 (William Hill - yes -4 is ok)

Was actually originally lining up a Wests Tigers 1st half play, however the predicted thunderstorms (100% precipitation) are the worst possible weather for the young, flashy & ill disciplined Tigers, especially as they come up against the old seasoned veterans of Melbourne. The Storm should grind this one out. Definitely worth a unit or so...

[sando]

Boom! Nurmagomedov is such a beast! He will destroy RDA when they fight (or McGregor).

3-0 +3.5 units

Gonna be a bit reckless & take a play i rejected earlier (because I was looking for better odds)

1* Teixeira ($1.50 -200 Sportsbet)

[sando]

UFC on Fox

4-0 +4.5 units

MMA 2016

(8-3 +5.4 units)

[Bill_Hicks]

Good shite Sando

[sando]

AFL

2* GWS ML ($1.97 Pinnacle)

NRL

2.5* Canberra v Cronulla Over 42 (Sportsbet)
(If you can only get -42.5 or -43.5, would recommend only playing for 1.5-2 units)

More plays to follow...

Both easy winners, great day today, cashing everything we touch...

[gaguilan10]

You're a gun mate. Started following your plays from yesterday $$$$

[sando]

You're a gun mate. Started following your plays from yesterday $$$$

You picked a good time to start mate.



Great w/e. Really starting to heat up now after a poor start to the season in NRL. Also have had a winning week each of the first 4 weeks in AFL, so can't complain there either.

NRL 5-2 +6.7 units

AFL 4-2 +2.1 units

MMA 4-0 +4.5 units

NRL 2016 22-24 -4.2 units

AFL 2016 16-11 +11.6 units

MMA 2016 8-3 +5.4 units


Will probably have a play on MNF tomorrow. Leaning heavily towards the Penny Panthers...

[hedgejob]

Nice run. So many interesting AFL games next round. Would love to see money come in on Crows & Hodgie back.

[sando]

Back for another big w/e

Loving both the NRL & AFL cards. Lot's of plays...

AFL

3* GWS -8.5 (William Hill)

2.5* Swans -5.5 (Sportsbet - Up to -8.5 is ok)
0.5* Swans 40+ ($6.00 - Bet 365)

1.5* Hawks v Crows Over 196.5
1* Hawks 1-39 ($2.25 Sportsbet)

1.5* Freo -31.5

1.5* Western Bulldogs -42.5
1* Western Bulldogs team total Over 110.5 (William Hill)


NRL

Brisbane v Souths
2.5* Brisbane -12.5 (Bet 365 - up to -13.5 ok)

Souths have fallen right off. They look stale, boring & un-creative. The Burg-eye twins are horrible and they are really really missing Isaac Luke's run out of dummy half. Brisbane by 20+
Power Stat - Broncos are covering home games at 76% over their last 17

Canberra v Wests Tigers
1.5* Raiders -6.5 (William Hill - Play up to -7.5 is ok)
1.5* Over 45.5 (William Hill - Over 46 is ok)
1* Canberra/Canberra (HT/FT) ($2.00 Bet365)
I feel like I know how this game will play out (Raiders win in a high scoring affair), but can't settle on my betting strategy, so will diversify my wagers.
Both teams score 20+ ppg, and both have below average defences. Day games in Canberra are traditionally high scoring affairs.
Expecting a fast start from the Raiders at home after last weeks pathetic effort.
The Tigers are simply a horrible ATS road team.

Cowboys v Eels
1.5* Eels +8.5 (Luxbet)

Sharks v Panthers
1* Sharks 1-12 ($3.00 Luxbet)
1* Under 38.5 (Would have been a 2x play except the opening line of 42.5 has come in to 38.5 due to predicted rain)

Storm v Warriors
1.5* Warriors +4
0.5* Warriors 1-12 ($3.90 William Hill)

[sando]

3-0 last night.

Good start to the w/e.

Still have a couple more plays on the cards...

[f1ori5]

Hi! I am new to this forum and I do not have experience in rugby could advice me which are the best 2 picks from you tips?

[sando]

Hi! I am new to this forum and I do not have experience in rugby could advice me which are the best 2 picks from you tips?

All my plays are 1-4 units (1* = 1 unit play). The more I like a play combined with the perceived "value" in the line/total etc, is how I decide how many units to risk. My favourite NRL play was the Broncos last night, which already cashed. Today my favourite play is probably the GWS Giants to beat the St Kilda Saints (ATS) in AFL (Aussie Rules). In NRL I'm very confident the Raiders will beat the Wests Tigers, however the ML is only -227 & the spread is out to -7.5 (although I would still take that ).

[f1ori5]

thank you very much! I hope you ll continue your winning streak

[sando]

AFL

1* Geelong 1-39 ($2.50 Sportsbet)

[sando]

2.5* Swans -5.5 (Sportsbet - Up to -8.5 is ok)
0.5* Swans 40+ ($6.00 - Bet 365)

Swans win by 39. Missed the 40+ by 1 point. Argh

[f1ori5]

yes nice picks anyway some unlucky ones. anything in the nba? I am thinking over 101.5 ht at dallas

[sando]

yes nice picks anyway some unlucky ones. anything in the nba? I am thinking over 101.5 ht at dallas

Had a unit on all 3 of the home teams today (excluding Dallas). Last one is Portland, but i like them the most...

[f1ori5]

Anyway GWS are rolling!!

[prior22usaf]

Nice hit on GWS Sando. My first ever bet on Aussie Sports was a winner. Much appreciated!

Was curious if you had any thoughts on who was going to take the NBA championship? The prevailing opinion would still have to be Golden State despite the Curry injury scare...I'd be very interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks again man for the GWS pick

[BigNik]

What has happened to the Sharks since half time. They are sleep walking

[garygroundwork]

Was curious if you had any thoughts on who was going to take the NBA championship? The prevailing opinion would still have to be Golden State despite the Curry injury scare...I'd be very interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks again man for the GWS pick

me too...the man speaks with his head and puts emotion to one side.

Also Sando can anyone beat the Cavs in the east ?

[Bill_Hicks]

Awesome weekend Sando. Thanks!

[sando]

Nice hit on GWS Sando. My first ever bet on Aussie Sports was a winner. Much appreciated!

Was curious if you had any thoughts on who was going to take the NBA championship? The prevailing opinion would still have to be Golden State despite the Curry injury scare...I'd be very interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks again man for the GWS pick

me too...the man speaks with his head and puts emotion to one side.

Also Sando can anyone beat the Cavs in the east ?

Ok lads I would be happy to share my thoughts on every team remaining in the playoffs, I'll do a bit of a write up later today when I have some more time, however for now I would recommend jumping on the Cav's -6 (I'm playing it for 2x). Being a close-out game, if the Cav's have the lead in the 4th Quarter they are likely to run away with and win by a big margin, as reality sets in for the Pistons & they move into "gone fishing" mode & stop playing as hard. Also Van Gundy not playing Drummond down the stretch is not exactly the recipe for success either when he is your franchise player, but on the other hand how can he?? The guy's ft% is literally getting worse every game, and the Cav's will happily play hack-a-Shaq with him...

Also have a strong lean on 1st H Over 101.5

[sando]

Will have a couple more AFL/NRL plays within next few hours. Been another huge w/e!! Simply on fire in the footy, 5 winning weeks in a row to start the season. Also a really nice bounce back in the NRL after a poor start to the season...

[f1ori5]

Nice. keep it rollin