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Thanks mate. Yeah the Indiana loss & Miami Over were both painful today.Originally Posted by therealdealau
I've actually been having a decent season in the NBA, certainly not spectacular, however was up approx 12 units.
Of course start posting plays again and getting smashed after only a week. How convenient haha.
NRL 2016
Poor start to the w/e. 0-3. Couldn't have been more wrong on the Roosters & then the Dog's.
2* Warriors ML ($1.88 Pinnacle)
It's now or never for the warriors & McFadden. First home game & it's at Mount Smart (not Eden park). Great record against the Storm, who also may be a bit down after finding out Slater is done for the season. If the Warriors hadn't started the season 0-2 they would probably be $1.55-$1.60, as the pre season hype surrounding this team was huge (as always), and the Storm are slightly overrated (as always), especially without their X factor Slater. Warriors are simply waaay too talented and despite their rather heartless performances in AUS, they should re-discover their mojo back across the Tasman.
1* Raiders @ Knights Over 45.5
Also looking to play the over in the Tigers @ Titans this evening, however will hold off for now and see how much rain we get on the Gold Coast today.
Pending plays...
Agree on both tonight Sando. Some reason the Warriors play Melbourne tough no matter the circumstances but being in a hole is the perfect spot to back 'em. Don't see many points, think it'll be an grind unless one side opens up I think it'll struggle to hit 30.
Raiders should pour it on tonight and Newy should get a bit of offense finally going after being humiliated, I can see 50+.
What a massive choke by Canberra. Didn't even come out to play this second half
Both those teams suck
UFC Fight Night 85 (Bris-Vegas)
Nice simple card for me, no fancy plays tonight...
1.5* Mark Hunt $1.70 (to win 1.5 units)
This fight is easy to break down in my head. Mir's huge ego, inflated by his somewhat recent KO victories over Bugfoot & Duffee, will force him to stand with Hunt, which is of course a bad idea for all but the elite of the heavyweight ranks (of which Mir is long gone from). Mir fancies himself as a boxer these days, and he's actually pretty crisp with his hands, however Hunt kicks like a donkey & hits with Tyson like power, and 25 minutes is a very long time. Also Hunt has worked on his submission defence (I've seen this with my own eyes - as he trained for UFC fight night Hunt vs. Miocic at my gym!!) & hasn't been submitted in over 5 years.
1* Neil Magny $1.95
I love "Aussie" Hector Lombard, but seriously - when was the las time you saw a fighter still look good after getting of Ped's (Vitor Belfort). All Magny should have to do is survive the 1st round...
1* Johnny Cage (Johnny Case) $1.90
NBA 2016
1* Charlotte 1st H -5.5
2* Charlotte -9.5
Will update record after this w/e
1.5* Wizards 1st Q -2.5
NRL 2016
Last play for the round.
*1.5 Rabbittohs @ Dragons Under 40.5 ($1.87/-115 Luxbet)
Under 40 is fine as well
I've been lining up the bunnies all week & my instincts are telling me to get stuck into them, however the more time I've put into this game the more the under has revealed itself to be the strongest play, especially considering the current weather in Sydney.
NRL 2016
11-11 -2.4 units
*Bad w/e. Went 2-5 and lost over 5 units.
MMA 2016
4-3 +0.9 units
2-1 today. +1.4 units. Should have went larger on Hunt. Didn't realize Mir was so unfit...
NBA 2016
12-17 -14.6 units
Bullshit NRL results. Refs sucked off the dragons. Broncos up 22-6 and lose.
I swear refs laugh underdogs and home teams too much.
AFL 2016
0-0-0
Full card for round 1. I think many of the lines are off, so am going fairly hard right out of the gates...
Tigers v Blues
1* Tigers 1-39 ($2.20 Sportsbet)
1* Melbourne v GWS Over 169.5
1* Melbourne 1st Half ML ($2.15)
Swans v Pies
2* Swans -7.5
Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
3* Western Bulldogs ML ($1.92 Sportsbet)
Kangaroos v Crows
1.5* Kangaroos -11.5 (William Hill)
West Coast v Brisbane
1.5* West Coast 1st H -27.5
1* West Coast -56.5 (Luxbet)
NRL plays to follow later today...
2* Clippers @ Warriors 1st Half Over 115
Damn Sando going against my boys big time.
If Freo knock off Dogs rd 1 at Edihad...they are in for a monster year
This all looks good
Taking handi's R1 in AFL is crapshoot.
Rich v Carl U174.5 or nothing.
Sorry mate, I think Freo is a genuine premiership threat again this season, it's just that the dog's at Etihad are going to be VERY hard to beat this season. I think the odds should be dog's $1.70 to be honest...
I disagree. The astute handicapper who has done his homework in the pre-season can have a distinct advantage early on before the books have properly adjusted lines & totals.
Without those 50M penalties Richmond would have lost pal.
NRL 2016
Dog's v Rabbitohs
1* Under 38 (Luxbet)
*The under 38 won't last long so get in fast if you like it. (Also at PalmerBet)
Sammy Burgess looks to be a shock late inclusion in this game!
Cowboys @ Warriors
1* Cowboys ML ($2.30)
1* Cowboys 1-12 ($3.95 Will Hill)
2.5* Raiders v Titans Over 46.5
Roosters v Sea Eagles
1.5* Roosters +4
1* Roosters ML ($2.40)
Hard to take the Roosters here, coming off 0-40 last week, however the majority of betting angles & statistics favour an outright Roosters win (for example - home underdogs coming off a flogging are 22-11 ATS the following week since start of 2013 - bounce back factor), apart from the fact that they will be desperate after their 0-3 start, Manly coming off 5 day break & also without two or three of their best forwards from last week. Roosters or nothing here lads.
Love the cowboys tonight Sandro. Good luck bud
What a shit no try ruling. Milford had every chance to make that tackle
That one hurt. Two disallowed tries in extra time. First one was not a forward pass. Cowboys deserved that win
First one was forward. But fk me second one was clearly a try.
Still why didn't Granville go to JT for field goal.
Cowboys were the better team. That sucks.
Nice start to the AFL season.
5-3 +4.85 units
However, running ice cold in NRL so best not to tail me. Have lost about 6 plays in a row. Combination of bad luck & bad handicapping.
Eels @ Tigers
2.5* Eels team total Over 21.5 ($1.77 Sportsbet)
Fairly confident I'll be making a play on MNF (Sharks v Storm) as well.
Getting in early with some plays in AFL & NRL for this w/e. Some lines in the AFL that are still off & must be taken advantage of.
Terrible round in the NRL going 1-5 -8.8 units, however it wasn't all bad handicapping, as for those that don't watch NRL games or follow the sport, you should know that both of the Cowboys plays should have cashed (at $3.95 & $2.20 no less). They had two tries disallowed, one just before FT for a phantom obstruction, and then a try by JT in extra time that was also considered a bad call by most media & experts (although not all). Either way to have both of those called no try's was extremely unlucky. Also the Roosters ML should also have cashed at $2.40. This one there was no grey area, the ref simply fukced up real bad by disallowing the match winning try to the Roosters, and this has been admitted by everyone (bar the Ref's boss himself - dickhead Arthur). Those results would have made a vastly different w/e, but regardless the only way I'm looking is forward.
Plan on crushing both sports this w/e...
AFL 2016
5-3 +4.85 units
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
3* Western Bulldogs -26.5 (Sportsbet)
Going big again on the Bulldogs after starting the season with a big 3 unit win on them in round 1 when they crushed Freo. The Saints were actually impressive against overrated Port, however the Bulldogs are just lethal and I expect them to be able to comfortably overcome the Saints pressure game & literally run away with this one in the second half.
Hawthorn v West Coast
2.5* West Coast ML ($1.85 Sportsbet)
Crazy that the Hawks were favourites for this game (until yesterday). Would not be surprised if the Eagles are up big by HT & potentially even 40+ winners? but happy to play it safe & take the ML. Be aware the Eagles will keep shortening & probably get into $1.70ish by kick off IMO.
Collingwood v Richmond
1* Collingwood 1st Q ML ($2.05 Luxbet)
Brisbane v North Melbourne
1* Brisbane 1st Q +5.5 (Luxbet & Sportsbet)
Will probably add Brisbane +25.5 for a unit as well. Not decided yet.
NRL 2016
12-16 -11.2 units
Cronulla @ Wests Tigers
2* Cronulla -3.5
Brisbane @ Gold Coast
2* Brisbane 1st H -6 (William Hill)
1* Brisbane 13+ ($1.95 William Hill)
Wow look at the money pour in on Collingwood
AFL
1* Freo v Gold Coast Under 172.5
NRL
2* Cowboys 13+ ($1.92)
How good are the Doggies. Good call.
Both teams who played that brutal game last week (Port & Stk) got flogged.
They remind me of a young Geelong team (2005ish). You just know that there is something special about this group. Mate if the Hawkers lose tomorrow (& i expect them to) then i would not be at all surprised if the dog's start favourites next week...
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I have backed the dogs to beat Hawks already Agree they will shorten considerably after the Eagles smash the Hawks today
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aussieH gave sando 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
