[Tim Gerry Mander]

Judging by the way they played against Wigan - Yes.
16 of the 17 players picked played in the GF last year.

It should be a cracker of a game - both teams hate each other and the rivalry has only grown the last few season.
The previous year, both games were won in the last minute of play.
IN both of these games, the team leading was up by more than a converted try with less than 5 minutes to go, only to get run down.

Last season, they split the games again, with each pack belting the other into submission.

Expect some brutal hits and keep an eye on Burgess v SBW.
Pity Luke O'Donnell retired - would have been good to see him lose his sh|t again like in that Origin game a few years ago.

[micase]

They're professional sportsmen, facing their arch rivals and main contenders for the premiership with a side that has barely changed from last season (O'Donnell out, Napa in.) I'd be more concerned about where Souths are going to find the points to beat them.

[sando]

Argentina @ Romania

1.5* Over 2.5 (-105/$1.95 Sportingbet)

Uruguay @ Austria

1* Uruguay ML (+104/$2.04 Pinnacle)

Serbia @ Ireland

1* Serbia +0.25 (-136/$1.73 Pinnacle)
0.5* Serbia ML (+198/$2.98 Pinnacle)

[nickos86]

Like these quotes edited from a few articles about England soccer tonight:

England have never before lost three consecutive home games, the sort of record no manager wants to set. “We don’t want to lose games at Wembley,” conceded Hodgson.

"In those last two games we didn’t put our best teams on the field to make sure we didn’t lose the game. We made quite a few experiments.
But our aim is to win the game. We’ll have a very strong team at the start and we’ll have a strong team in the second half as well."

Denmark, meanwhile, will likely be without Christian Eriksen, as Morten Olsen insisted that he would not be used if he was not fully fit. With the Danes having narrowly missed out on qualifying for the World Cup. they will be focused on developing their new generation of talent.

But then Hodgson says in another article written on the same day:
"The Denmark game is very much a game where I've got to think about what experimentations I need''

"If we take Steven Gerrard, does he need to play against Denmark to prove to me that he needs to play against Italy (in England's first match at the World Cup)?
"Would I be better off playing somebody else because I know what Steven Gerrard can do?

One of my favourite betting angles (all sports) is trying to identify if the clearly better team will show up to play or not!
Coach Hodgson not making it easy on me

Looking good from what I see so far mate. I am allergic to juice but will do some more reading and almost certainly on this one.

[nickos86]

Wish I could find the uncut global feed for these interviews like NBA or NRL...

[yippa82]

Thanks TGM and Micase for the responses. For some reason I couldn't give points to Micase.....

[shevabets]

Got on England at +money. They can salvage a pretty bad afternoon of betting.

[shevabets]

I'm pretty sure a winner hasn't felt this good in a while. Thanks for your work sando; the results will surely follow (but maybe multi unit bets should be avoided on games that are, after all, 'friendly')

[ender749]

that was one expensive day of friendlies.

Sando, how's that big NRL play coming along?

[OZnBa Fan]

Bosnia would never be $1.75 playing against Egypt at home in any competition. $1.45 max

[sando]

Yeah bad night in the soccer, hit a few, missed a few but got belted on the big play (Bosnia). Egypt 2-0, what a joke.

NRL play's coming now

[justkyle88]

I've got my notepad ready!!

[ender749]

Yeah bad night in the soccer, hit a few, missed a few but got belted on the big play (Bosnia). Egypt 2-0, what a joke.

NRL play's coming now

GO GET EM!

[sando]

NRL

Round 1

Sydney @ Souths

1* Roosters -3.5 (-110/$1.92 Pinnacle)

Yes the Roosters have had an "interrupted" pre-season, mainly in the sense that they had to focus on beating the stuffing out of the best club team in the world (outside of the NRL) and didn't get in any legit trial matches. The bunny's have had a very solid pre-season, however the loss of Keary from the halves is massive coming up against the rock solid Pearce/Maloney. Also the Roosters 3/4 line is an origin level 3/4 line, featuring match winners in RTS and Jennings, super athleticism try machine in Tupou and rock solid veterans in Mini and SKD. The bunnies have Inglis, however their centre's are pretty average for a premiership level team. Also their is no denying the Bunny's have the world's best pack, however with JWH, SBW and to a lesser extent Napa and Moa, the Roosters have plenty of strike power up forward themselves. Reigning premiers have a great ATS record in round 1 (despite having to play the World club challenge) and the Roosters were the best ATS team last season. These contests are traditionally unpredictable, hence let's keep it small and hopefully talent prevails...

Bronco's @ Bulldog's

1.5* Under 38.5 (-109/$1.91 Bet365)

As TGM said, this has defensive slug-fest written all over it.

Melbourne @ Manly

1.5* Sea Eagles -5.5 (-109/$1.91 Sportingbet)

Ben Roberts is playing at HB for Melbourne, replacing Cooper Cronk. That's pretty much all you need to know. Although despite injuries, having the world's best halves pairing (DCE and Foran), the world's best defensive FB (Stewart) and arguably the world's best centre (Lyon) kind of helps, as does playing at Brookvale against your most hated of rivals...

Canberra @ North Queensland

3* Cowboys -9.5 (-108/$1.92 Sportsbet)

Cowboy's by 12+

Tigers @ Dragons

1* Tigers ML (+101/$2.01 Pinnacle)

Dragons are horrible and still probably overrated. Two genuine stars (Merrin and Morris) surrounded by a very poor team. I have them winning them wooden spoon in a canter this season. Tigers with a ton of young talent, although that also means there will be a lot of unpredictability about them this season.

NZ @ Parramatta

2.5* Over 44 (-110/$1.90 Sportsbet)
1* Eels +4.5 (-115/$1.87 Sportingbet)
1* Eels ML (+149/$2.49 Pinnacle)

I rate the Warriors highly (as I always do) on paper. The addition of Tomkins is massive, and his combination with Shaun Johnson is tantalising for Warriors fans. However if they really want to be taken seriously as a title contender they can start by sacking Elliott who has had more than enough chances to show that he is an average coach who cannot connect to his players psychologically. The Eels will be the big improvers this season in my humble opinion, especially defensively. I expect them to start the season strongly, and also the Warriors have often been slow starters. Regardless I'll take the Eels at home in what I expect to be one of the more exciting fixtures of round 1, and most definitely a high scoring affair. Jarryd Hayne back to 2009 form...? Tonga a rejuvenated man? Sandow on the road to redemption? Does Hopoate still have it? So many questions. The Eels will be a vastly improved side this season. You heard it here first. Last year the Warriors were again favourites against the Eels in the season opener and promptly got destroyed.

Still working on Sharks v Titans. Probably have a play on that game as well...

[snufflyjoe]

Loving the sportsbet promo for round 1. If your betting this game it may be worth taking the ml.

[snufflyjoe]

Btw: the promo is if the team you back scores 18 or more but loses you get your bet refunded up to 100

[the tross]

Im in love with this card. Cows the standout 12+. Got 3u on roosters -2.5 . Bol everyone.

[thecattery12]

Btw: the promo is if the team you back scores 18 or more but loses you get your bet refunded up to 100

Sportingbet is the same but with 12 pts

[Jikos]

Hey man Sportingbet has cowboys at -8 and sea eagles -4 right now but it says 80 minutes only. Is this any different from taking -9.5 at another site? Don't know much about rugby. Thanks.

[snufflyjoe]

Sportingbet is the same but with 12 pts

Damn I should of shopped around

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Bunnies 13+

Premiership hangover!

[Martinr]

Souths improved as the game went on.
Ingliss scored 3, and was the difference. There aren't too many players that could've scored that first try of his.
Early season ruck errors were costly.
The Burgess boys seem to be having a personal try scoring contest going amongst themselves. Hope that doesn't cost the team.
I don't think much can be taken from this game, apart from the fact that Souths will likely be top 4 again.
This is where both teams were at the same time last year, and the Roosters have got plenty of time to get their shit together.

[shevabets]

To sando & Co. - Good luck this season!!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Love the write up for the Storm/Manly game....
Be interesting to see how Bellamy influences Ben Roberts.

Nothing on the Panthers game?

Really liking the UNDER 42.5 (BET 365) in the Panthers/Knights game and have hit it for 1 unit.
Knights are a very defensively focused team.
Beau Scott and Jeremy Smith should control the ruck for the Knights.
Soward will kick to the corners and try and find touch and any penalties in range will be conversion attempts.
A bit of an ex-Dragons connection with players on both sides.
Expect a little feistiness and plenty of mistakes from both teams, especially the Panthers as they test their new combinations.

Another bet is Cowboys/Raiders OVER 41.5 (SPORTSBET).
The last 3 straight games and 6 of the last 7 have all sailed over this total.
The last 3 games in Townsville have also gone over this total.
I can see the Cowboys putting on a clinic and Milford should be good for a try or two to get the over to hit.

[shevabets]

Got all of them in.

Question to sando: I understand you've been betting rugby for like a decade. Would this mean you have had more than one weekend when you went undefeated with 5+ wagers on the card? I'm asking because I just had (ended) an 11 game losing streak betting 2H NCAA hoops, and I've had a 12 game winning streak earlier in the (winning) season.

[ExodusNZ]

Welcome back all!

[serballin]

Any play for dogs v Broncos? I hear dogs have a lot of players out. Might be some value on broncs at 2.45 ?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I've capped the game at -6 bulldogs.
They are missing Kasiano, but Klemmer is a similar sort of player.
I think the dogs are a little more stable in the halves, while the broncos are experimenting with players out of position.
They are also missing their best player in hodges.
Take advantage of Tom Waterhouse - $2 friday faves.

[thecattery12]

Take advantage of Tom Waterhouse - $2 friday faves.

Let me on for $5

[sando]

Super Rugby

Cheetahs @ Reds

2* Reds -8.5 (-108/$1.92 Sportsbet)

Last week the reds got embarrassed by their most hated of rivals (QLD V NSW). This week I expect the Cheetahs to cop it as a result of QLD's embarrassment. The Cheetahs were also very poor against the shitty Rebels on the 1st leg of their Aus tour. Reds are a big step up from the Rebels.

[Martinr]

Let me on for $5

Waterhouse lets you on for $5.00?
I did hear that he let's some winning accounts keep betting just so he knows which side the smart money's on. Lucky you.

I couldn't find a suitable thread for NRL picks, so I hope I'm not out of line by posting a play here. Let me know if I am and I'll stay on the sidelines in future.


Panthers/Knights. Mar 8. 16:45.
This is a great spot for the Knights. Underdogs in R1, away from the Newcastle home crowd and against a Panthers team full of expectation.
The Knights finished 2013 in the Preliminary Finals, somewhat against the odds, and Wayne Bennett will consider anything less than a Top 4 finish this year a failure. He sets high standards and IMO is the best coach since Jack Gibson (subjective opinion and not open to debate, sorry). This game is the sort of challenge he thrives on.
He coached Jamie Soward at the Saints, and will have Jarrod Mullins' replacement, Michael Dobson (ex Hull), well clued up for the head to head match-up.
As mentioned above The Knights are first and foremost a strong defensive side. They were 5th last season in the bare defensive stats, and have room for improvement in that area this season. This is where they will initially look to assert at Penrith. Bennett coached teams are amongst the fittest in the comp as a rule, and if they manage to get on top early the Panthers will find it very hard to get back into the game.
There is a good chance that Wallace and Soward will take a few games to get things working together at Penrith. This will be their first game as a pair, and no matter how much practice and training they have put in they are likely to need time to get accustomed to each other's play.
There are a few things about this game that give Newcastle a very strong chance of a win. At the moment they are trading at 2.18 (with very limited liquidity) on the Betfair exchange, and I consider that outstanding value for a Newcastle outfit that has won their last 5 matches against Penrith.

[Goat Milk]

Sando or anyone, I am looking to put in one of your plays before get to bed here in a moment. we had some bad luck when i woke up to egypt winning that soccer game. my local only does money lines for rugby, are the reds worth it for -380?

[micase]

Just commenting on your game write up Martin, surely if there is a chance that Soward and Wallace will take a few games to get things working, the same could be said for Newcastle losing Mullen who was one of the driving forces in them making that deep(ish) run into the finals.

I don't think the Knights team is any better than last season while the Panthers seem to be on an upward trajectory in terms of leadership on and off the field, recruitment and results.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I agree with Martin
Like the knights in this spot
Wallace is a bum, can't understand why the Panthers signed him or Soward for that matter.
Time will tell how well they perform.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Watch Pritchard iron the phuck out of Ben Barba tonight.

Lots of bad blood there!