[Tim Gerry Mander]

NRL Prop Bet - Over/Under Season Wins

Hi guys,
For anyone who is interested, here is one of my bets for "season wins".

St George Dragons UNDER 9.5 wins

I had this play marked in from late last week.
The Charity Shield result on the weekend reinforced what I thought.
Add a serious injury to Josh Dugan and it all points to a long season for the Dragons.
The Dragons are currently a team with no direction or leadership on or off the field.
Their coach is already on thin ice and the season hasn't even started.
They have gone out and bought Gareth Widdop from the Storm to solve their chronic halves dilemma - however very few Storm players who leave to join other clubs actually stay at the same level or get better (e.g. Adam Blair a case in point).
They have no recognised 7 or 9, a new 6 who is about to learn what life without SSC (Smith, Slater and Cronk) is like, and now their Origin fullback is set to miss a chunk of the season with injury.
They have lost some experience over the off-season and the question marks over the coach will hinder their efforts to remain at least partly competitive.
11 of their first 14 games are away from home.
Their best talent will also be absent for some games as they are Origin/International reps (Morris, Nightingale, Merrin).

Based on my calculations, they are predicted to win 6 games for the season.

After Dugan's injury, the U9.5 got smashed into 1.75.
You can find U8.5 for $1.88.
Either option, I like this bet alot.

Pity about Dugan's injury which has moved the price and line on most books.

[nickos86]

NRL is my favourite sport to bet, because the variation (in my opinion) between years is quite small. In NRL the institution and winning culture of an organisation is extremely important, and one of the most important factors.

Melbourne lose stars and still compete - "good" players from Melbourne leave and never play as well ever again. Melbourne was fantastic at taking average players, putting them in a great system, and using their few talents to the max.

Put S+S+C at Paramatta and I'd almost autobet the under for season wins. (Cam Smith is an excellent leader though which is my only qualm, but put G.Ablett at the GC Suns and you don't get a premiership...)

Probably good value if you grabbed it early at 9.5, I have not looked at the schedule yet - but the question is not who are they going to beat, but who is definitely going to beat them 15 times during the season? The difference between the top 4 and the field is massive.

Last year only 3 teams were under 10 wins and West Tigers and Eels don't even count. They have been the worst teams in the league for years (yes even with Benji the overrated tard) - but for some reason people needed to see them come last for several years before they registered it. Channel 9 with the constant promos saying "This will be the week Eels finally sort it all out and win" promos may have had something to do with that.

St George was the other under 10 wins last year (at 7 wins) - despite having a better points differential than the team above them with 10 wins. Dugan is overhyped by Channel 9 IMO, so would have been good to keep him in the team to get extra value. If the forwards can't get field position and they don't have good halves - good luck utilizing him properly. Have as many Widdops as you like - he is experienced and a journeyman sure, but no superstar.

Also why Hayne is the best prop bet ever. He is GREAT. But doesn't give a penetrate regular season considering how bad his team is - then in Origin / Internationals he explodes.

Glad you got the good line. St George is one of the few teams I find hard to read considering the organisational changes since Wayno came to stir things up.
Ah I can't wait for the season!

[Grunch]

Last year only 3 teams were under 10 wins and West Tigers and Eels don't even count. They have been the worst teams in the league for years (yes even with Benji the overrated tard) - but for some reason people needed to see them come last for several years before they registered it.

Really? Wests were 3rd in 2010 and 4th in 2011. "worst teams in the league for years". How many years were you talking about?

I guess that destroys your theory of "The difference between the top 4 and the field is massive." and "the variation between years is quite small". You're clearly just rationalizing.

[nickos86]

What I mean is they have both been very extremely poor institutions, with ineffective utilization of the talent on their rosters for many years, in my opinion. With the Eels this goes to the core, less so with Wests.

Finally fell out from under the Tigers in 2012 when they were favourites for the Premiership and didn't make the finals.
Happened to the Eels in 2010 before that - preseason favourites to win, won only 10 games and didn't make the finals.

I feel you can rely on clubs like these, when the same people are leading the show, to under utilize talent and be hilariously inconsistent. Same as you can rely on Craig Bellamy and Melbourne to produce expected results from players week in and week out. (More often than not, in both cases).

I loved this from NRL.com Eels 2014 season preview I just searched:
"Whether it's the sacked coaches, humiliated CEOs, boardroom dysfunctions or inflated player contracts, it's difficult to know where to begin to describe how one of the proudest clubs in the competition arrived at this mess.
So we'll just imitate what the Parramatta Eels have done over the past five years: start all over again. Us media folk are just as tired writing about it as the players are talking about it. Every year a new suit waltzes in, promises Tim Mannah and his mates a brand spankin' new start, only for it to end, time after time, in unmitigated disaster. And still, yet again, here we are. Entering a brand spankin' new season with a brand spankin' new CEO, a brand spankin' new coach, and a brand spankin' new hope."

As for the Tigers, their historical average position in the table is 10th. In 2011, one more loss could have put them as low as 7th. But even when they get a great squad they can not achieve.

This is edited from 2013 preview:
"This time last year Wests Tigers were hot premiership favourites... It was a dream team – thundering big forwards and super-slick backs. They looked good… but that’s as far as it went. Look at the names: Anasta, Ayshford, Blair, Farah, Fulton, Galloway, Lawrence, Marshall, Moltzen, Pettybourne, Sironen, Tedesco, Tuqiri, Utai, Woods. It’s an all-star cast, a crack outfit.
Yet they were last year too. Why should it <2013> be different? Simple: new players, new coach (in Mick Potter) and new attitude."

Hmm how about 15th position instead.

I also mean the top four are particularly strong this year in relation to his bet, and that the rest may be a little more fluid. I don't agree or disagree, but glad he got value.

There are likely some inconsistencies with my theories, otherwise I'd be a millionaire from hitting 100% on NRL. But there are enough legitimate angles there that have earned me plenty of $$ fading those teams (including season wins under).

[nickos86]

That's enough posting for the next two years I think far out.

[shevabets]

NRL Prop Bet - Over/Under Season Wins


Based on my calculations, they are predicted to win 6 games for the season.

After Dugan's injury, the U9.5 got smashed into 1.75.
You can find U8.5 for $1.88.
Either option, I like this bet alot.

Pity about Dugan's injury which has moved the price and line on most books.

Where do I bet this, except the Australian-only bookies?
Also, what price would you take for A) The team to NOT make Top 8 and B) The team to finish dead last?

[sando]

Some brilliant insight from my buddy TGM, I agree 100% about the over-rated dragons (as you can probably tell from my write up about the charity shield match).

For those of you that are interested in betting the NRL this season, you will get everything you need from this thread, and also That guy's, Dr Gonzo and Mr XYZ's. So many brilliant NRL betting minds were contributing here last season, and we killed it. Hopefully some of the lads return? s2230011, benny-rama, mase of base, Mr XYZ, angelo and Dr. Gonzo among others.

Will be doing AFL this season, as well. AFL is usually my best sport however last year was only a "break even" year, so wont be hard to improve on that. Other guys to follow are Cooper Trooper, Johnno, and my man the RealDealAU.

[Aussie Dog]

GI left Melbourne Storm to become the Fullback at Souths...... this is an example of a player improving after they left the Storm.

[therealdealau]

Looking forward to talking up a storm in regards to AFL and tailing you on NRL, lets make it a great season.

[aussieH]

Has gi improved. He was pretty damm good at the storm

[Tim Gerry Mander]

GI left Melbourne Storm to become the Fullback at Souths...... this is an example of a player improving after they left the Storm.

If you read carefully, I said very few players leave the Storm and get better or at least stay at the same level at other clubs.

Inglis is a supreme athlete - he's arguably improved since moving, but only because he's playing his preferred position - don't forget he was in the centres when he first moved to Souths and was hardly setting the world on fire at the time.
He was also a gun player before he left the Storm.

Other guys like Tolman and Sika Manu have done well after moving clubs, but the list of flops is much longer.

No disrespect to Widdop, he's a good player, but let's see how he handles the pressure of being the "go to" man in a team severely lacking talent in key positions. At the Storm, he had Cronk and Smith taking the majority of the opposition defence's attention, allowing him the freedom to pock his spots. He won't have that luxury at the Dragons.

[Coopertrooper]

Thanks bud, hopefully it is a good season for all on the Aussie sports

[justkyle88]

Can't wait to follow this thread

[s2230011]

Returning ?! Never left mate ... always keeping on eye on your thread.

Looking forward to the new season !! I am keen to keep an eye on player props from the beggining of the year, kinda got me interested half way through last season.

Good luck Sando and looking forward to everyone's inputs.

[sando]

AFC Champions League football

Guangzhou Evergrande v Melbourne Victory

1* Over 3 (-126/$1.79 Pinnacle) (Remember it's to win 1 unit, so risking 1.26)

Goals, Goals, Goals...

[BigNik]

What do you think of Wanderers game Sando. Think maybe Western Sydney can pull off a win???

[Shazzadude]

I like that play Sando, I think the result will be something like 3-1 or 4-1 to Guangzhou Evergrande.

[Rabbitbrew]

Three days and ...

NETBALL!!!!!

[Lakey]

Great hit on the soccer play Sando!

[Martinr]

This looks like a thread worth keeping an eye on. bol for the season guys.
Just my 10c on the GI subject: however well he's doing at souths, I still think melb utilised his talents to better effect. Those cross field chips from the attacking qtr to a running on Ingliss were always good for a storm try when needed. I always get frustrated that Reynolds and Ingliss can't quite seem to click the same.

[sando]

Nice start to the "football" season

So far...

1-0 Rugby League
1-0 Rugby Union
0-1 AFL
1-0 Soccer

Need to update all my records, but I know that both my soccer and rugby league plays are hitting at over 60% and the only sport that is in the negative is Rugby Union (which is about -4 units all up).

AFL

West Coast @ Sydney Swans

Swannies never got out of 2nd gear against GWS, whilst the Eagles crushed premiership heavyweights Freo, so the logical play is Eagles +14.5 right??

Wrong.

The Eagles have to travel an awful long way for a pre season match, first by plane and then by bus (match is at Bankstown) and both teams are leaving out plenty of experience and big names for this clash. The difference is Sydney is arguably the deepest team the AFL has seen in a decade or longer, and could almost field 2 AFL level teams, whereas West Coast is most certainly not and relies so heavily on Glass, Priddis, Cox, etc.
Sydney rests a handful of big guns and instead brings in Buddy Franklin, Sam Reid, LRT, Mike Pyke, and Lewis Jetta as the in's - ridiculous (and embarrassing if they don't win the flag this season). Sydney (despite the rust) showed that they are putting in effort this pre-season in their match against GWS, and unlike GWS, the West Coast are Sydney's true rivals and a team they take no shortage of satisfaction in completely dominating ever since the epic '05 and '06 grand finals.

Swan's by 3-5 goals.

1.5* Sydney -12.5 (-105/$1.95 Pinnacle)

[Grease King]

I'm all over that play. Locked and loaded, 2 units Swans -13, 2 units moneyline

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Brave bet.
Swans have been a notoriously poor preseason club for a long time.
GL mate.

[sando]

0-2 from the AFL pre-season, sorry lads. I've learnt my lesson and am going to wait until the real stuff starts in a couple of weeks.

[unitedlad]

Don't apologise mate. We all know the amount of work you put into your bets. All we ask is that you keep on posting!

You done for the NBA season then, or waiting til playoffs?

[selte]

Hey Sando, can I ask you how the NBA futures bets you posted are looking? : )

[sando]

Don't apologise mate. We all know the amount of work you put into your bets. All we ask is that you keep on posting!

You done for the NBA season then, or waiting til playoffs?

Not done as far as betting, I love the NBA and follow it religiously, in fact I had my best day of the season yesterday, hitting all my totals and also a huge play on the Blazers. Not sure if I will post any more plays on SBR this season, I get too stressed out when I/we are not winning.

Will have a couple of Super Rugby plays for tonight's game's in a few hours and also maybe/probably a play on tonight's A league football.

[sando]

Hey Sando, can I ask you how the NBA futures bets you posted are looking? : )

Well Durant is almost a sure thing to win MVP (got it at +380) whereas McLemore almost no chance of taking ROY. My season O/U's aren't looking all that good, with Philly, Cleveland and New Orleans all in trouble, however Denver is almost a sure thing.

[tommygun]

yeah pre-season afl is a joke, avoid at all times. so tempting to nibble though at some of the lines up.

[unitedlad]

Not done as far as betting, I love the NBA and follow it religiously, in fact I had my best day of the season yesterday, hitting all my totals and also a huge play on the Blazers. Not sure if I will post any more plays on SBR this season, I get too stressed out when I/we are not winning.

Will have a couple of Super Rugby plays for tonight's game's in a few hours and also maybe/probably a play on tonight's A league football.

Any chance you would post them NBA plays up on twitter?

[OZnBa Fan]

"Embarrassing if they (Sydney) don't win the flag this year"
thats a massive call mate.. Good luck on the season

[sando]

Super Rugby

Cheetahs @ Rebels

1.5* Cheetahs -1.5 (-110/$1.90 Luxbet)


A League Football

Perth @ Brisbane

2* Brisbane -1 & -1.5 (-118/$1.85 Pinnacle)

[tommygun]

sando are u going to look at geelong v melb tonight in nab cup? i personally think its a trap, might avoid....

[the tross]

Love the cheetahs play and bring on the netball Mr Rabbitbrew.

[the tross]

Rabs, i know you're out there.
Need ya bro . Take ya time.