[Jago2008]

Dammit I hit my 'Over' but lost the damn Lakers 2nd half by a point, penetrate. Nick Young was awful down the stretch.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Time for the broom to come out of the closet.

Nice work Sando!

[selte]

Nice work Sando! But I did of course choose yesterday to go to bed early after a rough couple of days, being in the european timezone isnt that handy when following an Aussie betting on American sports

[elPkay]

Great work again, Sando!
Thought about parlaying your top 3 plays but forgot it later and went to bed. doesn't matter, very nice day
even if I missed your ingame plays later on. Thanks alot for the effort!

[davopnz]

Hey Davo,

Lakers 0-2 ATS since Kobe's return.

LOL and? You guys were saying how they were going to be grossly overvalued when Kobe came back, what the line was -5 against the raptors without gay, and -3 against the suns, both home games...seems like fair lines to me. Lakers were barely .500 before Kobe came back, not to mention the fact Kobe had a good game today. Silly post.

[ACoochy]

Hey Sando or any other knowledgeable NBA cappers, why are the 76ers getting 12 to the Wolves??

76ers have played the Target Arena relatively well in the past and believe Wolves win this by 8...

Thanks in advance...

[sando]

Hey Sando or any other knowledgeable NBA cappers, why are the 76ers getting 12 to the Wolves??

76ers have played the Target Arena relatively well in the past and believe Wolves win this by 8...

Thanks in advance...

Well I haven't gotten around to that game yet, however Vegas has obviously decided MCW isn't playing again, and he is clearly Philly's best and they have been bad without him last 3 games, losing both home games by 11 and their road game by 17. Also worth noting is that Minnesota has the highest scoring differential in the league (+ 4) in relation to their record (which is below .500). This suggests that when Minny wins they blow teams out. They have also been a particularly hot and cold team this season and may be ready to go on another mini run after the motor city beat-down.

Philly has a poor points differential of -7.5, suggesting that they routinely get blown out, but for me the most interesting angle is that Minny is an excellent 1st Half team and Philly is a terrible one, combine that with a Minny home game and this one could be over by half time, I.e - A 2nd half cruise control blow out...?

Having said all that the line does appear rather large and I would grade a fair line at -10.5 or -11.

[boydako13]

Thanks for the info Sando...now I'll pound minnesota 1st half

[boydako13]

Any picks for tonight?..tailed u last night..lot of thanks!!

[sando]

Any picks for tonight?..tailed u last night..lot of thanks!!

NBA Wednesday

3* OKC -6 (-103/$1.97 Pinnacle)

A red hot Thunder team led by a healthy Westbrook roll into Memphis to take on a skeleton crew. No Gasol, Pondexter, and most likely no Davis or Allen. The Thunder have a 100% healthy list and have won 11 of their last 12 games by an average of 8.6ppg (having played more good teams than bad).

More to follow...

[imarkp]

Well I haven't gotten around to that game yet, however Vegas has obviously decided MCW isn't playing again, and he is clearly Philly's best and they have been bad without him last 3 games, losing both home games by 11 and their road game by 17. Also worth noting is that Minnesota has the highest scoring differential in the league (+ 4) in relation to their record (which is below .500). This suggests that when Minny wins they blow teams out. They have also been a particularly hot and cold team this season and may be ready to go on another mini run after the motor city beat-down.

Philly has a poor points differential of -7.5, suggesting that they routinely get blown out, but for me the most interesting angle is that Minny is an excellent 1st Half team and Philly is a terrible one, combine that with a Minny home game and this one could be over by half time, I.e - A 2nd half cruise control blow out...?

Having said all that the line does appear rather large and I would grade a fair line at -10.5 or -11.

ap reported mcw out though he is with team. young philly team bad on the road and like you said terrible in 1h. -7.5 1h makes sense to me.

[bmoney76]

NBA Wednesday

3* OKC -6 (-103/$1.97 Pinnacle)

A red hot Thunder team led by a healthy Westbrook roll into Memphis to take on a skeleton crew. No Gasol, Pondexter, and most likely no Davis or Allen. The Thunder have a 100% healthy list and have won 11 of their last 12 games by an average of 8.6ppg (having played more good teams than bad).

More to follow...

Like the bet Sando - though Sefolosha questionable for tonight.

[sando]

NBA Wednesday

3* OKC -6 (-103/$1.97 Pinnacle)

A red hot Thunder team led by a healthy Westbrook roll into Memphis to take on a skeleton crew. No Gasol, Pondexter, and most likely no Davis or Allen. The Thunder have a 100% healthy list and have won 11 of their last 12 games by an average of 8.6ppg (having played more good teams than bad).

More to follow...

Like the bet Sando - though Sefolosha questionable for tonight.

Interesting. I can find no info that he is out/questionable for tonight? Rotoworld (my main source for injuries) seems to think he is playing tonight. What is your source?

1.5* Magic +5.5 (-109/$1.91 Centrebet)
Vucevic (very important) is listed as probable.

1.5* T-Wolves 1st Half -7.5 (-109/$1.91 Centrebet)

1* Clippers -5 (-107/$1.93 Pinnacle)
Will Doc be booed or applauded?

I also want to play the Knicks (because I am a glutton for punishment), but awaiting news on Deng & Noah's status.

[password]

NBA.com: Thunder guard Thabo Sefolosha is uncertain to be available after missing Tuesday's win with a sprained right knee.

[oldscho0led]

BOL Sando! Welcome back.

[Mase of Base]

If Noah and Deng are out that Bulls team would be close to one of the worst teams to play a game in the NBA in recent seasons wouldn't it?! Teague got 23 minutes yesterday and It'd be a struggle to find someone worse than him in the NBA.

[sando]

Leans on


Bulls/Knicks Under
Jazz/Kings Under
Mav's/Warriors 1st Half Over


But not going to play any totals today, just paper trading.


Last Plays


1* Warriors 1st Half -3 (-109/$1.91 Centrebet)

1* Knicks 1st Quarter -1 (+104/$2.04 Pinnacle)

[sando]

Deng (leading scorer) is out.

Noah questionable?

1.5* Boozer Over 17.5 points (-115/$1.87 Sportingbet)

Won't last long I would think...?

[rentongfb]

noah playing, deng is out

[sando]

noah playing, deng is out

Noah will affect the Knicks more so than Boozer's scoring. Boozer is the preferred option in the post.

Noah has been upgraded to probable, but is no confirmed.

[unitedlad]

I know it sounds ridiculous but I'd almost feel more confident in the LAC play with Celtics winning going in at HT. May even play LAC 2nd half on top of the spread. Cs really know how to throw away a lead.

[unitedlad]

Wow, wow, wow are NYK bad.

Can't remember the last time I saw a team miss so many easy baskets as Wolves in this 1H

Taking Wolves on the ML if I can get a good price at HT. Philly making their shots but Wolves getting all they want inside.

[sando]

My punishment for betting on the Knicks - they score 6 points in the last 8 minutes of the 1st Q, and then a 19-0 run in the 1st half of the 2nd Q.

NBA 2nd Half play

1.5* Spurs @ Bucks Over 96.5 2nd Half (-105 Pinnacle)

[sando]

Coach Thibedau the fat French garlic eating fuk probably thinks he's a genius for not playing Boozer (easily their best player up to that point) the entire 4th Q, as it coincided with the Bulls comeback. I wonder if he realises that it wasn't a fantastic comeback from his team by any means, it was the horrible Knicks playing real bad and trying their best to choke away that nice lead, and Boozer had nothing to do with it.

[Cobra Kai]

I'd assumed he'd gotten injured. That sucks.

[sando]

2* Kings -7 2nd Half (-110 Pinnacle)

[jimmy007oc]

Man, King is overrated

[ACoochy]

Thanks for the response Sando.

Ended up taking 76ers +12.

Easy money

[sando]

NBA Thursday

1* Nets ML (+125/$2.25 Pinnacle)
1* Nets +3 (-112/$1.89 Pinnacle)

Will add some analysis tomorrow morning from work...

Boxing

Australian super middleweight title fight

Jake Carr v Zac Awad

1* Jake Carr (-250/$1.40 Centrebet) *Risking 2.5x to win 1x

Awad is definitely more experienced, but he is also 10 years older than Carr and coming off two losses in last 3 fights, and the 1 win was a farce (fought a complete chump). Carr only had 5 fights, but he is already the Australian super middleweight champ and he is undefeated. He has both a 3" height and reach advantage and should be able to work comfortably from behind his jab.


Fight for Life 2013

Paul Gallen v Liam Messam

2.5* Gallen (-115/$1.87 Sportingbet)

Last year at the fight for life 2012, Gallen fought Hika Elliot, who is a beast. Everybody seemed to think Hika would KO Gallen in the 1st round (especially Hika, who talked plenty of smack). Gallen won the fight convincingly, and if you watch the 1st round, you will see that he moves well, has decent footwork and head movement, and puts together plenty of combos, about all you could ask from a complete amateur. Also Gallen was on an injury lay break from league before this fight and was not particularly fit but still won. Messam is no joke either. Another beast who fought a heavy handed war against Wendell Sailor on the 2011 card and won that fight. At even money however, Gallen is a no brainer pick for me. I expect him to be fitter, faster, better footwork and combos, although Messam probably hits harder? but Gallen is tough as and will not get KO'ed. Gallen is also an avid boxing fan, he loves it, and he has even hinted at wanting to try his hand at boxing when he retires from rugby league. In fact Danny Green said himself that Gallen has potential and wants him to fight under his "green machine promotions" banner if he does take up boxing seriously.

[selte]

Can any of you find the boxing matches at Bet365 or Pinnacle? I can't

[Rawinz]

cant find it at any book either,but if its even not on bet365, you wont find it on Pin as well

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Gallen might have to turn to boxing quicker than previously thought.

[Shazzadude]

Ooh, that's a toughie.

It's well known that Liam Messam took the boxing training with SBW quite seriously when they were team mates at the Chiefs, and the boxing training is given some credit for Messam's rise from being a wider All Black squad member to being the number one choice at blindside flanker.

Gallen did have a significant reach advantage over the shorter Hika Elliot, which he won't have tonight. I think Gallen might be the right lean, but I think it's priced correctly.

[Rawinz]

sando u got an short analysis for the Nets game? Always feels like a hard time to back them these days ...tia

[Mase of Base]

Ooh, that's a toughie.

It's well known that Liam Messam took the boxing training with SBW quite seriously when they were team mates at the Chiefs, and the boxing training is given some credit for Messam's rise from being a wider All Black squad member to being the number one choice at blindside flanker.

Gallen did have a significant reach advantage over the shorter Hika Elliot, which he won't have tonight. I think Gallen might be the right lean, but I think it's priced correctly.

It's tomorrow night I think?

The card looks pretty fun, not as good as previous years but should provide some entertainment. Big Ben going to be throwing some bombs! You'd think he will gas fast though so assume that's why Thaiday is so short as he should be fit. Gallen v Meesam has the potential to be a cracker they both knew what they were doing that's for sure! Chris Cairns with the match fixing allegations over his head, wonder what the crowd will be like for him. Those two jouno's fighting is crap, McIvor was a joke (but full credit to him for getting in there).

*Also does anyone know much about Minto? Sounds like a good bloke and I think Camerons a bit of a douche, line will be inflated on the American here because of the local money so there has to be a bit of value straight off the bat.