[thorny]

[quote=Emerson;20322276]

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LOL, i can see this pic circulating and popping up every now and then

[Emerson]

[QUOTE=thorny;20322426]

LOL, i can see this pic circulating and popping up every now and then

I know right? I was going to delete the post because Sando is going to be pissed at me HAHAHA. Oh well, still makes me laugh to this day.

[thorny]

I think Mr. XYZ brings up an interesting point though-how long after the bet has been made should it be posted about to count?

Honestly, it doesn't matter, it's the bets he was able to place and because of that it doesn't matter when. Technically he is posting the plays he makes so others can tail if they wish, but he's placing bets for himself and no one else.

It would be nice if at the time of posting the line was the same, and this case it was, it moved after he posted.

And what is this whole business of should things count? Is there a competition or trophy i'm not aware off? Unless he has blatantly lied, edited his plays, made false claims...fine, but missing out on a play he made because the line changed.... tough titties

[Gee]

I wasn't attacking Sando, just questioning. I don't have a problem with people coming into my thread & calling me out, I've made mistakes & own up to them. but now you're just being a complete fukkwit Gee.

Yup, but I don't see anyone has made a mistake today other than you. Have you owned up to it yet? "Just questioning" - that isn't how your post below read.

Guy posted a line he got WHEN HE GOT IT including a screen shot and, from what I've seen, you're the last bloke in the world to have a go at someone for bad form in their own thread.

I don't usually get involved in this nonsense, but geez... not sure what to say about posters like you.

I know you're trying to turn things around Sando but posting lines that nobody else can get is bullsh#t. Poor form mate. This is what Sweetjones used to do to pad his record.

[davopnz]

Love the sheep call, considering you are a New Zealander.

Baaaaaaaa

Australia has the 2nd most sheep in the world, NZ has the 6th most...your point?

[MrXYZ]

Yup, but I don't see anyone has made a mistake today other than you. Have you owned up to it yet? "Just questioning" - that isn't how your post below read.

Guy posted a line he got WHEN HE GOT IT including a screen shot and, from what I've seen, you're the last bloke in the world to have a go at someone for bad form in their own thread.

I don't usually get involved in this nonsense, but geez... not sure what to say about posters like you.

Posters like me? Get over over yourself mate. I've contributed a lot more to this forum, one post that goes against the groupthink and it's like I've spat on the Virgin Mary.

You guys keep going scrutinising what I wrote, but funny enough you left out the other part of my post:

Having said that I hope they all cash, you're due for a winning streak after a couple of rough days.

[Donkey]

Australia has the 2nd most sheep in the world, NZ has the 6th most...your point?

As a proportion of population and size of country I will have 5 units on NZ being the biggest sheep lovers @ -300

[Dr.Gonzo]

[QUOTE=Emerson;20322276]

This is what's going on in my world...

I'm immersed in sports 24/7, around this time of the year I tend to think about the NBA all day every day, and when I'm not thinking about the NBA I'm thinking about MMA and boxing. When I sleep I usually have sports related dreams, when I'm cooking or doing the dishes I'll have my iPhone hooked up to a radio in the kitchen banging out NBA podcasts one after the other. When I go to bed I usually lay in bed reading NBA articles until I fall asleep, often as I fall asleep my Ipad falls out of my hands and hits me in the face. It never ends for me...

Ok boys time if you don't believe Sando about him falling asleep with is Ipad I have some pictures for you all to have a laugh. These were taken when Sando and I have been live trading on sports or just researching games to bet on. I have blurred the pics and draw around his head just in case he didn't want his face on here.
Attachment 62316Attachment 62318Attachment 62320

HOF

[Cornelius]

People should relax. I think everyone just wants to win around here. No need for these arguments guys


Stay peaceful

[Puda]

Over 210 thunder clips tomorrow. Locked in early.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

HTF did the Rockets lose the game?

Up by 18 late in the 3rd and get done!

[WalkingLuckCharm]

HTF did the Rockets lose the game?

Up by 18 late in the 3rd and get done!

18 pt lead?? Lol. Only time a double digit lead is safe is if Miami are up by 30 at ht. Teams like spurs and okc will bring it closer sometimes.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Two back to back 3s and you got a 12 pt game. Especially considering if two teams are hiGh scoring teams

[sando]

Just a quick note on the "controversial" lines I posted on yesterday's card. Most of those lines were at Sportingbet (not Centrebet) which you can see from the screenshot I posted (as anyone who has a Sportingbet account will recognise). The reason I posted Centrebet was to avoid confusion with Sporsbet (Sportsbet/Sportingbet) I didn't think it mattered as all prices and lines on all games and all events offered are exactly the same at Centrebet as they are at Sportingbet, they are basically twins. I didn't physically check if the same early lines Sportingbet were offering were actually at Centrebet, I just assumed they would be as they are always the same. I have accounts at both and routinely place bets at either book depending on what site I have more funds in.

Also I started adding my plays and write-ups to the big post I added at 2100 last night ACDT (Adelaide) 0230 (LA) 0530 (NY) 1030 (London) and didn't post the page until about 2 hours later as I got held up for an hour doing something. Seeing as it was the middle of the night in the US, early morning in London and late night in Australia I didn't expect there to have been any movement in the plays I was posting and by that time was too tired to go back and check the price of every play ai had just done write ups for.

I have 16 sportsbetting accounts and sometimes make plays at minor books others don't have but have always tried to be fair and transpaprent and post widely available lines at fair prices. I have never tried to pad my record ever and have no problem taking any loss like a man.

[nzgamma]

Hello sando, all. Decided to make this thread my first post as I feel right at home here. I am a 26 yr old Kiwi and have lived in Sydney for the last 5 years. This thread has a great Oceania feel about it and I use a couple of the books sando posts bets from.

Firstly just wanna say I find it absolutely shocking and hilarious that a few of you have made sando feel that he has to apologise and justify himself betting and posting lines he finds at a book her in Aust. Put yourself in the situation; "oh wow look at that line what a gift, I'll hammer that...... oh wait a minute, I really shouldn't because it would be so unfair to all those people who won't be able to bet it because IT'S THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND THEY ARE ASLEEP" Lol. How ungrateful.

Anyway, a lot of you sound really knowledgeable and I value so many opinions here. Unfortunately though there also seems to be a lot MORE muppets who blindly tail bets and seem to have zero confidence in making picks for themselves and get really worried if a few people are on the other side of the line. Obviously these guys are the unsuccessful ones. But as I said sando and many others in this thread seem very clued up hence why I choose to make my first post here and thank all of you.

As I said I am 26 yrs old and have been betting NBA and a lot of other sports since I turned 18 (gambling age in NZ/Aus). I love betting NBA and NRL mainly. Until about midway through last NBA season I was a random amount, random leg multi bettor (parlays). I'd do a multi bet on Friday's with an NFL, league, hockey, NBA when on, baseball, and perhaps a rugby union game in the evening.
About midway through last season I really started to get over doing dumb bets and losing money (obviously I'd remember when I'd hit a 5 legger and think I was a winner), so started to take it more seriously and would spend most nights (and still do) reading info/theories/opinions from all sorts of websites.

So I started this season with a small bankroll ($1,500) and have been betting 2% units ($30) on NBA lines at the site I use (sportsbet). I got up to nearly $1,700 but am currently at $1,470. I'm not ashamed to say how small I am betting, or where my balance is at right now. The reason I'm being so honest is because I'm hoping it attracts genuine responses and some advice, which is what I'm hoping for.

Pretty much everyone here and sando included vary their amount of units bet on each game. Say 1 unit. Or 3.5 units. Some sites I've read recommend this while others recommend flat betting as I'd been doing ($30) as it made more sense to me. But with the overwhelming majority of everyone here varying their units bet it's made me think. Should I be doing this too I wonder? There have been some games where I would have preferred to bet more, but stuck to my system and only bet $30. Maverick -2.5 at Orlando a few days ago for e.g. I would have liked to bet 2 units.
I'm scared if I do this, I'll win the same amount of 1 unit bets as 2 unit bets and perhaps start losing more even though I had a winning record % wise (52.1%+ here @ 1.92 odds).

So I'm hoping for some advice on how I should approach this. So far I've just been tracking my in terms of monetary profit, but betting various units and tracking in units seems to be the standard and is more appealing to me and having the freedom to bet more units.

Thanks for taking the time to read and I look forward to and appreciate any responses.

[thorny]

welcome nzgamma, good post and look forward to seeing more.

in terms of betting style, i guess everyone has their own and whatever works best for the individual. I also got trapped with the multis last season, the lure of winning big quickly.

I like unit betting myself, i guess you could say you are betting based on level of confidence. you obviously hit lines that you believe are attractive, but some are more so than others. For me 1 unit is 1% of bankroll, and the max I ever place is 5 units.

Also my units vary based on sports, i'm not comfortable on NBA so i usually dont bet many units unless i tail someone knowledgeable. Whereas soccer and nfl i tend to be more confident.

[Jikos]

Welcome to the forum nzgamma. My advice to you is do what feels comfortable to you. However if a 1unit play is 2% of your bankroll, I would not go bigger than a 2unit play.

[MrXYZ]

Just a quick note on the "controversial" lines I posted on yesterday's card. Most of those lines were at Sportingbet (not Centrebet) which you can see from the screenshot I posted (as anyone who has a Sportingbet account will recognise). The reason I posted Centrebet was to avoid confusion with Sporsbet (Sportsbet/Sportingbet) I didn't think it mattered as all prices and lines on all games and all events offered are exactly the same at Centrebet as they are at Sportingbet, they are basically twins. I didn't physically check if the same early lines Sportingbet were offering were actually at Centrebet, I just assumed they would be as they are always the same. I have accounts at both and routinely place bets at either book depending on what site I have more funds in.

Also I started adding my plays and write-ups to the big post I added at 2100 last night ACDT (Adelaide) 0230 (LA) 0530 (NY) 1030 (London) and didn't post the page until about 2 hours later as I got held up for an hour doing something. Seeing as it was the middle of the night in the US, early morning in London and late night in Australia I didn't expect there to have been any movement in the plays I was posting and by that time was too tired to go back and check the price of every play ai had just done write ups for.

I have 16 sportsbetting accounts and sometimes make plays at minor books others don't have but have always tried to be fair and transpaprent and post widely available lines at fair prices. I have never tried to pad my record ever and have no problem taking any loss like a man.

You're a class act Sando. I'll eat my words & apologise for being an idiot.

[sando]

Welcome to the forum nzgamma. My advice to you is do what feels comfortable to you. However if a 1unit play is 2% of your bankroll, I would not go bigger than a 2unit play.

This is pretty good advice. If your working with a relatively small bankroll and your unit sizing is 2% of your roll, then a scale of 0.5 - 2.5 units is fairly standard (the equivalent of 1-5 units where 1 units represents 1% of bankroll).

The thing with flat betting is, it is very hard to hit 58% or better when betting into -110/-105 lines, and unless your betting large ($300+ per unit) it is quite difficult to maintain the focus and discipline required to grind out profits.

With spot betting you can take advantage of situational circumstances, (weak lines, emotional and motivational factors, under/over valued injuries, etc) and provided you choose your spots carefully you can hit at as low 45-50% on -110/-105 lines and still show profit.

So the concept of sizing your bets based on a unit scale (the most common being 1-3 or 1-5) basically combines elements of flat betting and spot betting. My average wager is 1-1.5 units, these wagers could be considered flat betting, whereas when i really like a play (for whatever reasons) I will raise the stake to 2-4 units, and this could be considered spot betting. For example - the other day I really really like Memphis -2 @ Sacramento, and placed a 3 unit wager. As it's early in the season and stats are very volatile and there is no enough data to accurately access the strength of most trends, I don't like to wager any more than 3 units max. If it was post all star break, that same play probably would have been 4 units, maybe 4.5.

The realistic goal is still to hit over 55%, and if I was more selective with my plays then I would be aiming for 58-60%

Last season I made 553 plays for a total of over 50 units profit, despite only finishing on 52.5% for the season. This is because I rarely made any plays below -110, and that record included probably about 40-50 ML dog plays and (most importantly) I hit my large wagers at a solid percentage (spot betting).

If last season I had only made on average 1 play per day I have absolutely no doubt that I could have hit 58%-60% (and yes I'm well aware that is a bold statement), however due to the far smaller number of total plays would have been lucky to have finished the season with 40 units profit, let alone 50+.

Winning percentage isn't everything. Profits are.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

beautifully stated. too bad everyone on SBR are degens like I am and have to bet everyday rather than spot bet ...

oh the money we would make if we had the discipline

[RedDevil89]

Hello sando, all. Decided to make this thread my first post as I feel right at home here. I am a 26 yr old Kiwi and have lived in Sydney for the last 5 years. This thread has a great Oceania feel about it and I use a couple of the books sando posts bets from.

Firstly just wanna say I find it absolutely shocking and hilarious that a few of you have made sando feel that he has to apologise and justify himself betting and posting lines he finds at a book her in Aust. Put yourself in the situation; "oh wow look at that line what a gift, I'll hammer that...... oh wait a minute, I really shouldn't because it would be so unfair to all those people who won't be able to bet it because IT'S THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND THEY ARE ASLEEP" Lol. How ungrateful.

Anyway, a lot of you sound really knowledgeable and I value so many opinions here. Unfortunately though there also seems to be a lot MORE muppets who blindly tail bets and seem to have zero confidence in making picks for themselves and get really worried if a few people are on the other side of the line. Obviously these guys are the unsuccessful ones. But as I said sando and many others in this thread seem very clued up hence why I choose to make my first post here and thank all of you.

As I said I am 26 yrs old and have been betting NBA and a lot of other sports since I turned 18 (gambling age in NZ/Aus). I love betting NBA and NRL mainly. Until about midway through last NBA season I was a random amount, random leg multi bettor (parlays). I'd do a multi bet on Friday's with an NFL, league, hockey, NBA when on, baseball, and perhaps a rugby union game in the evening.
About midway through last season I really started to get over doing dumb bets and losing money (obviously I'd remember when I'd hit a 5 legger and think I was a winner), so started to take it more seriously and would spend most nights (and still do) reading info/theories/opinions from all sorts of websites.

So I started this season with a small bankroll ($1,500) and have been betting 2% units ($30) on NBA lines at the site I use (sportsbet). I got up to nearly $1,700 but am currently at $1,470. I'm not ashamed to say how small I am betting, or where my balance is at right now. The reason I'm being so honest is because I'm hoping it attracts genuine responses and some advice, which is what I'm hoping for.

Pretty much everyone here and sando included vary their amount of units bet on each game. Say 1 unit. Or 3.5 units. Some sites I've read recommend this while others recommend flat betting as I'd been doing ($30) as it made more sense to me. But with the overwhelming majority of everyone here varying their units bet it's made me think. Should I be doing this too I wonder? There have been some games where I would have preferred to bet more, but stuck to my system and only bet $30. Maverick -2.5 at Orlando a few days ago for e.g. I would have liked to bet 2 units.
I'm scared if I do this, I'll win the same amount of 1 unit bets as 2 unit bets and perhaps start losing more even though I had a winning record % wise (52.1%+ here @ 1.92 odds).

So I'm hoping for some advice on how I should approach this. So far I've just been tracking my in terms of monetary profit, but betting various units and tracking in units seems to be the standard and is more appealing to me and having the freedom to bet more units.

Thanks for taking the time to read and I look forward to and appreciate any responses.

Welcome to SBR mate! You have a decent starting bankrol! It depends on what you want to do! If you are confident in playing your own picks, not going by others advice and were confident you could hit 60% on line betting -/+ the. I would take the 1 unit per selection. Even the professionals cappers are lucky to be able to hit 60%. I think 55% is average! But that can be a long a winding road. And it will depend on your skill level, making sure you keep emotions out and not going on tilt as we all have as gamblers, f

[RedDevil89]

Welcome to SBR mate! You have a decent starting bankrol! It depends on what you want to do! If you are confident in playing your own picks, not going by others advice and were confident you could hit 60% on line betting -/+ the. I would take the 1 unit per selection. Even the professionals cappers are lucky to be able to hit 60%. I think 55% is average! But that can be a long a winding road. And it will depend on your skill level, making sure you keep emotions out and not going on tilt as we all have as gamblers, f

Otherwise if you are planing on following someone then there are a few good guys in this forum who are consistent and reliable! Sando is a great example, he is a legend and you can always rely on him! And he's also a nice bloke! If you are going to follow someone then you should bet exactly as they do or you will find you will most likely earned less than they did even though you took the same bets.

I actually just started my own thread, I put alot of plays on the board, I give exact unit size, etc! I take more calculated risks as opposed to purely relying on my skill level! It's all about the numbers, and to me it's not gambling sports it's sports investing! I have studied economics and finance at uni, and chose to use what I learned to make money investing in the sports market! But I'm not just about finance I actually love and breathe sports, I play, I coach, I referee, I watch, and I bet sports! If you are interested drop by my thread Get rich capping or die trying its under more sports, and I will teach you about my system and have it so that by playing exactly what and how much to play you will win and build a bigger bankroll! Even if you don't follow me I can give you a valuable lesson!

[Dr.Gonzo]

Welcome to SBR mate! You have a decent starting bankrol! It depends on what you want to do! If you are confident in playing your own picks, not going by others advice and were confident you could hit 60% on line betting -/+ the. I would take the 1 unit per selection. Even the professionals cappers are lucky to be able to hit 60%. I think 55% is average! But that can be a long a winding road. And it will depend on your skill level, making sure you keep emotions out and not going on tilt as we all have as gamblers, f

You're lucky to hit 55%, that is certainly not average.

[RedDevil89]

You're lucky to hit 55%, that is certainly not average.

To be making a steady profit, if it was average the bookies wouldn't be making any money haha

[dante1]

You're lucky to hit 55%, that is certainly not average.

Exactly, how people who bet don't understand this is a mystery to me. Almost nobody hits at 55% consistently year after year. And believe me this is not an opinion it comes from observing hundreds of players for decades. Almost no winners in the long run which means very few hit 55% or over in the long run. Believe no one when they tell you they do unless you have met a man who belongs to a very very select group, an exceptional man with few like buddies.

[sando]

No plays today - rest day.

I like the Over in both games (so play the Under).

[sheepz]

haven't posted in here in awhile, good to see your getting back on track Sando. This NBA season start has been an interesting one

Have to admit, 1st quarters overs have been hitting a lot in the week or so

[thorny]

Exactly, how people who bet don't understand this is a mystery to me. Almost nobody hits at 55% consistently year after year. And believe me this is not an opinion it comes from observing hundreds of players for decades. Almost no winners in the long run which means very few hit 55% or over in the long run. Believe no one when they tell you they do unless you have met a man who belongs to a very very select group, an exceptional man with few like buddies.

It depends what the win percentage is based on...if your making handicap or o/u bets technically the bookies lines are so that there is 50% chance, so yes walking away with 55% is great. However, if your win% is from making bets square bets like anything under 1.50, then your % should be higher.

So like someone else said before who cares about winning percentage, its profit percentage that matters.

[nelsonrc24]

Under 98.5 HT in Denver seems to be the play.

[Gee]

Posters like me? Get over over yourself mate. I've contributed a lot more to this forum, one post that goes against the groupthink and it's like I've spat on the Virgin Mary.

You guys keep going scrutinising what I wrote, but funny enough you left out the other part of my post:

Its not just one post.

Just have a look at how you ran your own thread last year and the junk you pulled. I just think its incredibly rich for you to be calling someone else out.

And yes, we saw your token "hope you cash" comment.

[hawley]

Don't turn this sub-forum into players talk 2.0

[JM92]

No plays today - rest day.

I like the Over in both games (so play the Under).

Im on both.the early lines were ridiculous, still managed 199 and 212 and im hoping for a 2-0 night

[Coopertrooper]

It depends what the win percentage is based on...if your making handicap or o/u bets technically the bookies lines are so that there is 50% chance, so yes walking away with 55% is great. However, if your win% is from making bets square bets like anything under 1.50, then your % should be higher.

So like someone else said before who cares about winning percentage, its profit percentage that matters.

Exactly. I believe that the level of profit/loss and the amount you've bet/ROI/Profit Percentage are the things you need to judge performance. ROI is particularly useful for smaller-volume bettors, but it stops the guys who post 10 unit plays all the time from saying they have the same results as someone averaging 1-1.5 unit bets.

[MrXYZ]

Hi nzgamma, welcome to the forum. Check out this gamblers ruin simulator. It allows you to input win/loss amounts per bet, winning percentage, br & target. Limited to flat betting but you can simulate the results of thousands of bets.

http://www.hakank.org/sims/GamblersRuinApplet.html

[sando]

NBA 2nd Half Play

Clippers @ OKC
1* Over 104 2nd Half (-106 Pinnacle)