[sando]

Also on Dallas v Philly, it seems to me that the rookie MCW is the guy that adds the spark and brings the energy to this team and they just seem horrible without him. Despite getting destroyed by the Pelicans the other night (as I predicted) I honestly would not be suprised if Dallas also beats the Sixers by 15+

Charlotte @ Chicago

1* Bulls 1st Quarter -3.5 (-121/$1.82 Sportsbet/IAS)
1* Bulls 1st Half -7 (-107/$1.93 Pinnacle)

Denver @ OKC

1* 1st Quarter Over 53.5 (-112/$1.89 Pinnacle)

OKC loves to push the pace from the get go, most teams will try and resist, however the 3 teams that were happy to engage OKC in "run n' gun" from the get go (GS, Clippers, Mav's) resulted in 1st Q's of 65, 58 and 64. Denver this season is not the offensive juggernaut that we have grown accustomed to, however when faced with other "run n' gun" type teams (T-Wolves, Rockets and to a lesser extent the Lakers - more from lack of defence than anything else) they too have engaged in high scoring 1st Quarters of 61, 61 and 56.

[Aussiefalconfan]

Thanks Sando Best of luck today!

[Cornelius]

Sando the line for Dallas 1h handicap is at -7 is it still a play? This is on sportsbet and 365

[sando]

Sando the line for Dallas 1h handicap is at -7 is it still a play? This is on sportsbet and 365

-7 for -105 (Bet365) is almost the same play from an +EV point of view as -6.5 is @ -116. So yes make the play.

[mikmik]

My book has bulls - 4.5 first quarter isit st a play?

[oldscho0led]

On Bulls also. I think this is the part where the Bulls put a string of wins, feasting on low-tier teams. BOL

[sando]

My book has bulls - 4.5 first quarter isit st a play?

You have to make that call. I see this game starting one of two ways. Either the Bulls come out a bit flat after the huge Pacers beat down and it is a tight 1st quarter where the Bulls maybe finish up by about 2-4, or the Bulls continue the momentum (and the Chicago home crowds are very very good at pre game hype/noise/building at atmosphere) and put an early beat down on the Bobcats, leading by anything up to 10 or 12 after 1. Bulls are not a particularly high scoring 1st Q/1st H team, however their early game defence is outstanding, holding teams to an epic 18.9 1st Q ppg.

[Manel88]

the 1st quarter over/under bets, count as a 1st quarter or totals bet in your record?

[Cubanpete]

Any thoughts on the blazers nets over under?

[sando]

Adding...

Denver @ OKC

1* Russell Westbrook Over 22.5 points (-125/$1.80 Sportingbet)

This number is a full 2 points lower than Westbrook props available elsewhere. Westbrook has looked back to his best the last 2 games and today's match-up is just the sort of challenge Westbrook loves, as you have the two guys who are battling for the title of "fastest guy in the league" going head to head (Ty Lawson). All indicators point towards a high scoring game which adds further value to a Westbrook over prop. Also KD has increased his assists this early season to over 5 per game (career high) and appears to increasingly be looking to create shots for his team mates, especially since Westbrook has been back where he has averaged 6.5 assists last 4 games. This obviously means more shots for Ibaka and Westbrook.

the 1st quarter over/under bets, count as a 1st quarter or totals bet in your record?

1st Quarter bets. My full game totals have obviously been struggling, however my 1st Q, 1st H and 2nd H totals have been doing very well

[sando]

Any thoughts on the blazers nets over under?

The Under 196.5 is my second favourite total of the day, however I am reluctant to play anything but the strongest totals at the moment with my current record being so poor.

[Jago2008]

I actually really like the Clippers/Memphis 'under' 197.5, a lot of half-court defense, slow approach, I'd really like to know the time of possession Memphis has prior to a shot (traditionally been close to 15-20 secs).

Before I could place a bet while analyzing the line has already dropped to 196.5... Most likely will continue to drop, how much remains to be seen, it opened at 201...

[sando]

I actually really like the Clippers/Memphis 'under' 197.5, a lot of half-court defense, slow approach, I'd really like to know the time of possession Memphis has prior to a shot (traditionally been close to 15-20 secs).

Before I could place a bet while analyzing the line has already dropped to 196.5... Most likely will continue to drop, how much remains to be seen, it opened at 201...

A rough calculation tells me the Griz get a shot off approx every 18.1 seconds per possession. I like the under as well.

[nelsonrc24]

Sando whats your overall record?

[Jago2008]

A rough calculation tells me the Griz get a shot off approx every 18.1 seconds per possession. I like the under as well.

Thanks for the input Sando.

[sando]

NBA Monday

Philly @ Dallas

1* Dallas -4 1st Quarter (-116/$1.86 Pinnacle)
1* Dallas 1st Half -6.5 (-112/$1.89 Pinnacle)

So the Philly 1st half fades continue, and what better team to continue the trend against than the team that is the 2nd highest 1st Q ppg and the 3rd highest 1st Half ppg. Dallas also has a +3.4 1st Q points differential (#5) and Philly has -8.1 differential (dead last by a long way) . The trends continue with 1st Half differential's with Dallas +3.8 (#7) and Philly still dead last at -8.5 1st Half differential.

Also on Dallas v Philly, it seems to me that the rookie MCW is the guy that adds the spark and brings the energy to this team and they just seem horrible without him. Despite getting destroyed by the Pelicans the other night (as I predicted) I honestly would not be suprised if Dallas also beats the Sixers by 15+

Charlotte @ Chicago

1* Bulls 1st Quarter -3.5 (-121/$1.82 Sportsbet/IAS)
1* Bulls 1st Half -7 (-107/$1.93 Pinnacle)

Denver @ OKC

1* 1st Quarter Over 53.5 (-112/$1.89 Pinnacle)

OKC loves to push the pace from the get go, most teams will try and resist, however the 3 teams that were happy to engage OKC in "run n' gun" from the get go (GS, Clippers, Mav's) resulted in 1st Q's of 65, 58 and 64. Denver this season is not the offensive juggernaut that we have grown accustomed to, however when faced with other "run n' gun" type teams (T-Wolves, Rockets and to a lesser extent the Lakers - more from lack of defence than anything else) they too have engaged in high scoring 1st Quarters of 61, 61 and 56.

1* Russell Westbrook Over 22.5 points (-125/$1.80 Sportingbet)

This number is a full 2 points lower than Westbrook props available elsewhere. Westbrook has looked back to his best the last 2 games and today's match-up is just the sort of challenge Westbrook loves, as you have the two guys who are battling for the title of "fastest guy in the league" going head to head (Ty Lawson). All indicators point towards a high scoring game which adds further value to a Westbrook over prop. Also KD has increased his assists this early season to over 5 per game (career high) and appears to increasingly be looking to create shots for his team mates, especially since Westbrook has been back where he has averaged 6.5 assists last 4 games. This obviously means more shots for Ibaka and Westbrook.

Adding...

Portland @ Brooklyn
1.5* Nets -2 (-105/$1.95 Pinnacle)

*Finally confirmed - Pierce, Garnett are in and D-Will, Lopez and AK are out.

[micase]

A rough calculation tells me the Griz get a shot off approx every 18.1 seconds per possession. I like the under as well.

Thoughts on JJ Reddick U17.5 pts at Luxbet? He's only gone over that mark 3 times this season, twice against Houston who are letting in a tonne of points and once last start against a depleted Nets team.

He's at 15.5/16.5 elsewhere (Sportsbet/Bet365.)

[nelsonrc24]

Sando, could you please answer my question?

[micase]

Sando, could you please answer my question?

Read one page back

[Cubanpete]

Sando, could you please answer my question?

Look back a couple of pages

[thorny]

Read one page back

Look back a couple of pages

Lol...this forum is hilarious sometimes.

[nelsonrc24]

Oh sorry, my bad. Very good record from last year. For maximizing your profits, if youre feeling very confident about hitting nearly 60% i recommend you to read about Kelly Criterion.

[Ace1727]

Sando, what do you think about over/under 9 free throws made for Durant? I'm thinking over...

[Cornelius]

wow both teams coming out on fire! 7/10 and 9-11. KG going 6/6

[MrXYZ]

The Under 196.5 is my second favourite total of the day, however I am reluctant to play anything but the strongest totals at the moment with my current record being so poor.

Looks like you dodged a bullet passing on this one.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Oh sorry, my bad. Very good record from last year. For maximizing your profits, if youre feeling very confident about hitting nearly 60% i recommend you to read about Kelly Criterion.

Kelly is too aggressive.

[RedDevil89]

Here's a NCAA Basketball special pick guys

3 units on Middle Tennese State -12 (buy 1 point) @1.76

[JM92]

Wow, Westy already got robbed of one call, then got a tech and got robbed of another. Also missed a really easy one. Still, he already has 6 points! So he's really attacking.

[Cornelius]

luol deng to the rescue at the buzzer!

[elPkay]

Deeeeeng. Nice one

[Smoove]

luol deng to the rescue at the buzzer!

oh yeah... thanks for the plays sando, took your back on all tonight

[Vinnie Paz]

oh yeah... thanks for the plays sando, took your back on all tonight

same here except the prop. Clean sweep is coming boys! So far so good.

[Cornelius]

hmm dallas coming out flat.

[Cornelius]

this bulls team really struggles on offense sometimes. This second quarter is a perfect example

[Vinnie Paz]

Damn Chicago what the hell happened???