[No coincidences]

Thanks for all the points lads, it's very reassuring to known that you guys haven't lost faith in me.

This is what's going on in my world...

I'm immersed in sports 24/7, around this time of the year I tend to think about the NBA all day every day, and when I'm not thinking about the NBA I'm thinking about MMA and boxing. When I sleep I usually have sports related dreams, when I'm cooking or doing the dishes I'll have my iPhone hooked up to a radio in the kitchen banging out NBA podcasts one after the other. When I go to bed I usually lay in bed reading NBA articles until I fall asleep, often as I fall asleep my Ipad falls out of my hands and hits me in the face. It never ends for me...

So anyway when you are immersed in sports 24/7 and you are interacting with guys on twitter and SBR telling you how good you are, sometimes it can get to your head, and I will admit I do constantly suffer from arrogance in regards to many sports (mainly NBA and rugby league) as well as subjects like betting, investing, trading, etc. sometimes it gets to the point where I think I'm better than the pro handicappers that actually work for the books and that's when I make mistakes. I think the very fact that I have been so successful in multiple sports over the last 12-24 months has made me forget just how hard it is to maintain a winning edge in sports investing. While I have had considerable success across multiple sports, I am still far from a professional, both in attitude and results. There is much still to learn for me and plenty to improve upon.

I spend so much time immersed in the NBA world hat it gets to the point where I find "angles" on every 2nd game and on a daily basis I can have as many as 10-15 plays before I start scratching them of my list. I clearly have not been selective enough with my plays (especially as its so early in the season) and combined with my totals system just sucking at the moment, and my extraordinary bad luck with the team totals (example - T-Wolves yesterday need only 17 points in the 4th to hit their over 206.5 and they score 16 and we lose by the hook) I have had a rough start to the season, yet we still are about even for year despite everything. I will update my season record today.

So the plan is to keep up the work, maintain focus, be selective with my plays, severely cut down on the totals (making adjustments and paper trading) and start stringing together some winning days back to back. I have the utmost faith that I will have a successful NBA season, my knowledge of both the game, the players, and investing in general is the strongest it has ever been. It's a long season and there is no need to "kill it" every day. Grinding out profits is the name of the game. So thanks everyone for the support. I couldn't care less about the actual 2 point donations (I just gamble all my points away on Baccarat and stupid parlays anyway) but it is the meaning behind seeing so many people donate a few points that makes all the hard work so rewarding.

PS - I may seem like a loser to some, posting plays on Friday and Sat nights and spending so much time on research and SBR. The truth is I love sports and I am happiest when I am doing sports related activities (including playing sports). I have a good job that pays well and allows me tons of free time for research, I have a nice girlfriend, and some pretty nice stuff. I used to have lots of friends, not so much anymore. I still in theory have plenty of mates, it's just that I'm not very good at staying in contact with people and I'm kind of anti-social, I don't go out much anymore, however I have been through some really hard times in the last 5-10 years and these days I find I'm perfectly happy at home in my own company.

Cheers and sorry for the rant...

One of the best posts I've ever read here.

[No coincidences]

Yup, Sando you know I love you (lol) but these looks like one of those where you selection criteria might not have been at its top. Its odds that are not that far off from even/pk and you are playing them trusting a lot on their 3p shooting. All advanced stats don't actually point in a favorable match-up for either way but if I'm looking at player by player I honestly feel like the Pistons will kill the Lakers inside and I doubt Wes Johnson/Henry/Young or whoever plays the most at SF won't take advantage of Smith and, on the other side, might indeed get taken advatage of (although we obviously can't count on the Smith that shoots 7 trees a game to really take advantage of anyone). Also the Pistons are top of the league in fastbreak points per game and Lakers transition D is below average. Will be a gametime decision around here too and as always I love the insight anyway!

Liked your rant above a lot as well. BOL either way as always dude!

You are a very underrated poster here, JM. Always appreciate your insight.

[OMGChoGath]

You'll bounce back. What is your NBA record/total for the year?

[rohan22no]

Everyone thinks sandos sports analysis is good until he writes self-analysis. Wow! Sando, your ability to reflect and critically look at yourself is second
to none. What a great life skill that is.

Sando, have you thought much about the ashes? Will you be watching it and/or betting on it or are you in pure basketball mode? Would love to see a pre series write up if you have the time!

Cheers
R

[JM92]

You'll bounce back. What is your NBA record/total for the year?

I have my "Sando Tailing" nba record at - 5.6 units, but I'm pretty sure Sando's actually closer to even right now, which only goes to show how good you must be when everyone is talking about a rough start for the season and you might actually end the night with positive units!

Meanwhile I couldn't help myself for taking the Pistons. Im going to start watching the game but just by looking at the box score, except for the actual score, I feel really bad about my play right now lol.


@ NoCoin, thanks, I agree ahah. I didn't use to post much except for the LTA thread when I got here (I literally own that man for teaching me how to cap the nba) but I'm seeing less and less trolling so I've been posting a lot more lately. Once you know the right people and the right threads, this forum is actually pretty good.

[OMGChoGath]

Yeah Lakers was the right play there but it's still close.

[No coincidences]

@ NoCoin, thanks, I agree ahah. I didn't use to post much except for the LTA thread when I got here (I literally own that man for teaching me how to cap the nba) but I'm seeing less and less trolling so I've been posting a lot more lately. Once you know the right people and the right threads, this forum is actually pretty good.

Good to see. Keep it up.

[JM92]

Yeah Lakers was the right play there but it's still close.

Im still "happy" with my Pistons play but I don't like to see the Pistons winning by only 4 when they are shooting 64%. Since I tuned in, lots of stupid turnovers also and they are not winning the boards. That Jennings play though... wow. I actually thought he had lost the ball, but no, amazing play!


edit: sorry you guys lost the 1st half play. would be a happier guy if the Lakers won the first half as long as I won mine in the end!

[thorny]

NBA Sunday

Memphis @ Sacramento
3* Grizzlies -2 (-107/$1.93 Pinnacle)

Adding...

Late game - Pistons @ Lakers

1* Lakers ML (+115/$2.15 5Dimes)
1* Lakers +2.5 (-108/$1.92 Sportsbet)
1* Lakers 1st Half ML (+110/$2.10 Sportingbet)

Well done Sando, well picked and a good day at the office!

[Grunch]

Nice job Sando! It's good when things work out the way you think they will, it's a pretty nice feeling.

[Lilfatbum]

Raining 3 ball again, they will upset some top teams this year doing this, just a frustrating team to back, although pistons looking lottery material.

Awesome piece from Sando, so honest and frank, appreciate all your efforts.

[aussieH]

@Mr_Sando (also my Tennis Insight handle if anyone is a member there).




Well in order of how I rank them (not interested in all the jokes and off topic Hollywood crap, just want to talk basketball)


1. Hangtime podcast (Sekou Smith and co). Very sharp guys but only 1 per week.
2. Eye on Basketball (CBS Sports) Far too much Hollywood crap but when they get around to basketball it's excellent. - Daily
3. NBA Lockdown (Bruce Bowen) - Daily
4. Believe the Hype - Two Aussies who are rabid NBA fans and very knowledgable - Every couple days?
5. The Starters - Again far too much jokes and nonsense but the basketball stuff is good - Daily
6. Full Court Press - I love this one but they haven't done one since the pre-season ended

Been been listening to the starters (basketball jones) for over a year. Great program. They have also broken through commercially and they deserve the success. All sbr basketball should have a listen and support these guys.

[sando]

NBA Tuesday

4-1 +3.35 units

ATS/ML 2-0
Team Total's 0-1
1st Half 1-0
1st Q 1-0

NBA Wednesday

6-7 -4.21 units

ATS/ML 3-2
Total's 0-2
1st Half Plays 1-2
1st Quarter 1-0
2nd Half 1-1

NBA Thursday

2-2 -0.69 units

1st Half Plays 0-1
1st Quarter 0-1
2nd Half 2-0

NBA Friday

3-8 -7.25 units

ATS/ML 0-3
Totals 1-3
1st Half 1-2
Props 1-0

NBA Saturday

6-3 -0.08 units

ATS/ML 2-1
Team Totals 0-2
1st Quarter 1-0
1st Half 1-0
2nd Half 2-0

NBA Sunday (Today)

3-1 +4.15 units

ATS/ML 3-0
1st Half 0-1

_________________________
2013/14 NBA Season
75-66 +1.36 units

ATS/ML 33-25 (All ML plays are dogs so anything over 50% will be considered a success)
1st Quarter's 5-2
1st Half Plays 13-7
2nd Half Plays 14-7
Totals 8-17
Team Total's 0-5
Props 2-3

_________________________
2012/13 NBA Season
290--246--17 +51.47 units
_________________________

[OMGChoGath]

Wow damn almost 150 in and barely up. I think things will start to heat up for you soon.

[coogs08]

best of luck brother...here comes a hot streak!

[sando]

Wow damn almost 150 in and barely up. I think things will start to heat up for you soon.

I'm a high volume guy, swings are inevitable but I can maintain enough of an overall edge to end up on the right side of the ledger.
The problem is I have been hitting most of my 1 unit plays and missing on quite a few of the larger ones (going 6-3 and yet down 0.08 units), usually it's the other way around. Also have really had such poor luck with quite a few of my totals (I was hitting totals at 58% last season), and have had severe bad beats in 3 of my team totals. I understand how it works and I'm sure there will be plenty of games this season when I will pull off back door covers, or 12 points in the final minute to hit an over, etc - but for now is very frustrating.

Matters not, my mindset is the same as it always is. Already feeling good about tomorrow and the upcoming week.



Lining up another big play for tomorrow - will probably post soon to get best line...

[Cornelius]

I'm a high volume guy, swings are inevitable but I can maintain enough of an overall edge to end up on the right side of the ledger.
The problem is I have been hitting most of my 1 unit plays and missing on quite a few of the larger ones (going 6-3 and yet down 0.08 units), usually it's the other way around. Also have really had such poor luck with quite a few of my totals (I was hitting totals at 58% last season), and have had severe bad beats in 3 of my team totals. I understand how it works and I'm sure there will be plenty of games this season when I will pull off back door covers, or 12 points in the final minute to hit an over, etc - but for now is very frustrating.

Matters not, my mindset is the same as it always is. Already feeling good about tomorrow and the upcoming week.



Lining up another big play for tomorrow - will probably post soon to get best line...

Good examples for the totals was the t-wolves. That was an extremely bad beat!

Good calls today mate, Cheers for the plays

[davopnz]

finally got on a decent roll turned 70 into 400 this weekend, planning on playing small and sensible now because i'm happy with where i'm at money wise

[rohan22no]

finally got on a decent roll turned 70 into 400 this weekend, planning on playing small and sensible now because i'm happy with where i'm at money wise

Keep those periodic updates coming Davo.

[Any ability?]

Just dropped in to express appreciation Sando.
I'm another Australian, (vic) keen sports and punter but a rookie compared to your knowledge.
Mainly tracked cricket and will enjoy putting in my view on ashes, but happy to do it elsewhere and not hijack your posts
Anyway, keep up the positive input everyone, I'll start with my view when I think I can add value

[Shazzadude]

Just dropped in to express appreciation Sando.
I'm another Australian, (vic) keen sports and punter but a rookie compared to your knowledge.
Mainly tracked cricket and will enjoy putting in my view on ashes, but happy to do it elsewhere and not hijack your posts
Anyway, keep up the positive input everyone, I'll start with my view when I think I can add value

Go for your life I reckon, this thread is also something of a default home for us Australasians and Australasian sport discussions.

[RedRightHand]

Just dropped in to express appreciation Sando.
I'm another Australian, (vic) keen sports and punter but a rookie compared to your knowledge.
Mainly tracked cricket and will enjoy putting in my view on ashes, but happy to do it elsewhere and not hijack your posts
Anyway, keep up the positive input everyone, I'll start with my view when I think I can add value

I was going to point you to the cricket forum, but just saw you found it

[Any ability?]

Yeah just started an ashes thread. Thanks
Not sure how to put hyperlink here but you'll find it..
Will add initial insights tomorrow

[Cornelius]

finally got on a decent roll turned 70 into 400 this weekend, planning on playing small and sensible now because i'm happy with where i'm at money wise

Good for you mate. I've seen that have had a rough run for a while. Glad you're winning.

[JM92]

I'm a high volume guy, swings are inevitable but I can maintain enough of an overall edge to end up on the right side of the ledger.
The problem is I have been hitting most of my 1 unit plays and missing on quite a few of the larger ones (going 6-3 and yet down 0.08 units), usually it's the other way around. Also have really had such poor luck with quite a few of my totals (I was hitting totals at 58% last season), and have had severe bad beats in 3 of my team totals. I understand how it works and I'm sure there will be plenty of games this season when I will pull off back door covers, or 12 points in the final minute to hit an over, etc - but for now is very frustrating.

Matters not, my mindset is the same as it always is. Already feeling good about tomorrow and the upcoming week.



Lining up another big play for tomorrow - will probably post soon to get best line...

Hmm can't really see what you might b thinking about. I was going to hammer at least with a 2 U the over on the Mavs x Sixers has I've finally started my totals and am already 4-0 in the overs and feeling confident, but the best line is now far far away. Will have to get my money back onto Pinny or another bookie who releases lines early or I'll keep getting f'ed during my sleep.

I'll try and guess:

LAC - 8? or Nuggets + 9 and then some on the ML?

[BMoreBird]

respect

[fitguy67]

Yeah just started an ashes thread. Thanks
Not sure how to put hyperlink here but you'll find it..
Will add initial insights tomorrow

Abe, can't find your cricket thread...it's easy to link it to us tho':

1. when you're on the new thread u created: go to the top of the page where it spells out the URL (the unique name for the page)
looks like "forum.subforum.com/..............................."

2. highlight that full name

3. right-click...then select "copy"

4. then move to this thread...start a post as usual...and somewhere in the post do this:
right click/select "paste"...then submit post as usual

voila!

[Any ability?]

Thanks fitguyI'm on iPhone so it's a bit of a pain, but give this a crackhttp://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/cricket-betting/2688788-ashes-cricket-13-14-a-new-post.htmlBy the way, I like your phrase on bet to win.Slow and steady is the only long term way.My issue with cricket will be keeping heart out of it.Being from aust, it will be very hard to back poms.

[sando]

Any ability - Welcome


Finalising NBA plays now...

[RedDevil89]

Thanks fitguyI'm on iPhone so it's a bit of a pain, but give this a crackhttp://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/cricket-betting/2688788-ashes-cricket-13-14-a-new-post.htmlBy the way, I like your phrase on bet to win.Slow and steady is the only long term way.My issue with cricket will be keeping heart out of it.Being from aust, it will be very hard to back poms.

Close enough, just put a space before and after you post a link!!

And Fitguy you can find his thread by clicking the drop down arrow next to his username and clicking on Find latest post by ....

[ExodusNZ]

Great write up Sando.

Its funny how the new people to the thread are quick to judge, just ignore them. We know how smart you are - You shouldnt have to keep justifying yourself to everyone

Keep up the great work

[sando]

Ok so the big play was going to be on the Warriors ATS however I'm not as sure as I was yesterday so will pass...

NBA Monday

Philly @ Dallas

1* Dallas -4 1st Quarter (-116/$1.86 Pinnacle)
1* Dallas 1st Half -6.5 (-112/$1.89 Pinnacle)

So the Philly 1st half fades continue, and what better team to continue the trend against than the team that is the 2nd highest 1st Q ppg and the 3rd highest 1st Half ppg. Dallas also has a +3.4 1st Q points differential (#5) and Philly has -8.1 differential (dead last by a long way) . The trends continue with 1st Half differential's with Dallas +3.8 (#7) and Philly still dead last at -8.5 1st Half differential.


More to follow...

[Puda]

gl sando.

[freeeze]

Ok so the big play was going to be on the Warriors ATS however I'm not as sure as I was yesterday so will pass...

Because of the RLM ? It kinda seems like a good spot for Utah but I'm not sure this team can be trusted at all.

[JM92]

too high for a road team on my book, at least to make a big bet. I actually have a slight lean on the Jazz but I will wait to make a final play. Just one of those teams that has players too unstable and inconsistent for my taste, to be betting them against contenders like the Warriors.