[MrXYZ]

Feel for you guys, that sh*t defies reality.

[Lilfatbum]

NBA where amazing happens... That is rough

[sando]

This Love prop bet loss might be the worst I've ever seen.

Ever.

Yeah 9 rebounds in the 1st quarter, I stupidly thought it was a done deal already. Sigh...

[sando]

NBA Monday

Early Play

Memphis @ Indiana
2* Under 184.5 (-108/$1.92 Sportsbet)

[sando]

Seeing as it's the last significant tennis match of the year I'll post a play for old times sake (This thread originally started as a tennis thread)

I don't keep track off my tennis plays (mainly because I don't post any).

World Tour Finals

Djoker v Bum Picker

Take Djokovic either at the -2 (-125/$1.80 Pinnacle) or if you want to be more conservative, then play the m/l @ -172/$1.58

Watched Djocokic this morning against Wawrinka, he was just sublime, I mean Stan is in the career best form and plays Djokovic well, but Nole was just on another level. His defence is just ethereal on Indoor hard, he takes what would be clean winners against almost any other player and just retrieves them nochalantly to keep a rally in play. He forces guys to hit for the edges (higher UE count) and extend themselves in an effort to beat him. Rafa's big weapon the forehand plays right into Djokovic's dominant shot, his backhand. Rafa doesn't seem to like the lower bounce and has said he would prefer play to a faster court. Play on the true world #1 tonight, this is his match to winner or lose.

[aussieH]

Auto spell has changed rafa name to bum picker Is this an omen.

[Cobra Kai]

Haha, pretty sure that was intentional. Sando must not be a Nadal fan.

[sando]

Haha, pretty sure that was intentional. Sando must not be a Nadal fan.

Haha no I like Rafa, but there is no denying he walks around with a permanent wedgie. Guy can't go 5 minutes on the court without picking his bum. I've got a nickname for almost every top 50 ATP guy on tour...

[svhd]

This is the match I have been eagerly awaiting ever since seeing Samoa in action against the Kiwi's in their first hit out.


Samoa @ France


4* Samoa -12.5 (-105/$1.95 Centrebet/Sportingbet)
* -14 available for $1.90 at Sportsbet/IAS, lines not released yet by Bet365, Pinny or 5D. This play is good up to -14 for 4 units. -14 to -16 I would play for 2 - 2.5 units. Do not take this play over -16 for anything more than 1 unit. Predicted closing line for this match is Samoa -16


**For those that aren't familiar with my methods, this is a particularly large play for me. My unit range is 1-5 however I have never posted a 5 unit play in 18 months at SBR and have probably posted less than a dozen 4 unit plays. This is also the biggest play I have posted in this World Cup so far.


***There are two matches tonight. This is a play for tomorrow - the last preliminary match of the tournament before the finals begin.


****Seeing as it is such a large play, I will try and find the time to add some analysis.

Hey Mate, any writeup for your big play on Samoa ?

[MrXYZ]

Good luck with Samoa. They should cover easily. Passing on this one, both teams have qualified & I'd rather lay off in case something unexpected happens.

Found a good prop bet on Centrebet. The order of finish with Aus 1st & NZ 2nd paying 2.10.

[Mase of Base]

Good luck with Samoa. They should cover easily. Passing on this one, both teams have qualified & I'd rather lay off in case something unexpected happens.

Found a good prop bet on Centrebet. The order of finish with Aus 1st & NZ 2nd paying 2.10.

Everything to play for though, winner gets Fiji loser England.

[Semper Fidelis]

Is it still safe to put the Samoan moneyline as a part of some parlays? I've already taken the -12.5 but also thought about using the ML as a leg for other parlays, as that seems pretty safe. Is this ok to do? What are the chances that they actually lose the game?

[bartlomiej1978]

In last two games Samoa played crap in one half, so this is going to be better one, I hope

[sando]

HT Play - Rugby League Wolrd Cup

2* Samoa -4 (-108/$1.92 Sportsbet)

[cind3r]

Cash Samoa -12.5!! First time watching Rugby League, pretty entertaining. That interception at the end was ridiculous

Thanks Sando!

[Crowing Capers]

Cash that Bitch
Didn't play HT line but damn great morning mate

Cheers sando

[GreenAthens]

Well done and thanks Sando !

[pawnshop]

6-6 half time

Samoa 22-6 full time!

phew, cash it
thanks Sando

[djmano]

thank you sando for the tip on the rugby game!

[sando]

Enjoy it boys, but consider this the opposite of a bad beat.

We did not deserve to cover the line in this match.

Don't get me wrong, pre game I believed Samoa would win this easily by 20+ (hence the 4 unit play), but I have never seen such an ill disciplined, pathetic display from an almost NRL standard team, truly disgraceful. Take a bunch of strong, fast and super talented Islanders with brains the size's of golf balls and this is what can happen...

Their game plan was actually spot on - trying to physically beat up and intimidate the French (who just don't experience this sort of rugby league), but the way they went about it and their execution was an absolute joke, I am very very disappointed, despite making an awful lot of money on that match.

Remember it's not about any one individual win or loss, it's about the quality of your plays and the whole process. I was wrong on the line movement (usually my strength) and in hindsight I think we went too big on this play, the edge just wasn't as big as I thought...

[Semper Fidelis]

Thanks once again Sando, needed that one!!! You just made this veteran's day!

[RedRightHand]

Thanks for the tip Sando, and well done.Also great to learn from the game and be rational about what happened

[sando]

Thanks once again Sando, needed that one!!! You just made this veteran's day!

I too am a veteran (Australian Army), cheers to you sir.

[sando]

Preliminary matches are done now, and the finals will start in a couple of days.

I'd say we have had a good 1st half of the tournament...

12-5

+14.88 Units

[ohdecas]

Sandro you are a monster! Greetings from a Swiss soldier

[ohdecas]

I am tailing you also on your NBA pick, BOL

[rohan22no]

As usual Sando, thanks again.

Rohan - RAAF Vet

[svhd]

Enjoy it boys, but consider this the opposite of a bad beat.

We did not deserve to cover the line in this match.

Don't get me wrong, pre game I believed Samoa would win this easily by 20+ (hence the 4 unit play), but I have never seen such an ill disciplined, pathetic display from an almost NRL standard team, truly disgraceful. Take a bunch of strong, fast and super talented Islanders with brains the size's of golf balls and this is what can happen...

Their game plan was actually spot on - trying to physically beat up and intimidate the French (who just don't experience this sort of rugby league), but the way they went about it and their execution was an absolute joke, I am very very disappointed, despite making an awful lot of money on that match.

Remember it's not about any one individual win or loss, it's about the quality of your plays and the whole process. I was wrong on the line movement (usually my strength) and in hindsight I think we went too big on this play, the edge just wasn't as big as I thought...

you are damn good!

[selte]

Good read on the Djoko-Rafa match mate!

[amarius87]

Thanks sando for the rugby and tennis plays!

[hjrozay]

Enjoy it boys, but consider this the opposite of a bad beat.

We did not deserve to cover the line in this match.

Don't get me wrong, pre game I believed Samoa would win this easily by 20+ (hence the 4 unit play), but I have never seen such an ill disciplined, pathetic display from an almost NRL standard team, truly disgraceful. Take a bunch of strong, fast and super talented Islanders with brains the size's of golf balls and this is what can happen...

Their game plan was actually spot on - trying to physically beat up and intimidate the French (who just don't experience this sort of rugby league), but the way they went about it and their execution was an absolute joke, I am very very disappointed, despite making an awful lot of money on that match.

Remember it's not about any one individual win or loss, it's about the quality of your plays and the whole process. I was wrong on the line movement (usually my strength) and in hindsight I think we went too big on this play, the edge just wasn't as big as I thought...

I have to agree with you Sando the discipline of the Samoans was atrocious at stages but i will say their defense really stood up to get you the cover for yourself and everyone else.

Looking forward to the reminder of the tournaments games. I feel like New Zealand can retain the trophy with their side.

[sando]

NBA Monday

Early Play

Memphis @ Indiana
2* Under 184.5 (-108/$1.92 Sportsbet)

SA @ Philli
1.5* Spurs -3.5 1st Half (-108/$1.92 Pinnacle)

[Crowing Capers]

Novak slammed Rafa.
Novak played like a beast

Yess again great call Sando

[bballs84]

Does your opinion change with Duncan sitting out?

[sando]

Adding...

Atlanta @ Charlotte
1.5* Hawks -2 (-108/$1.92 Pinnacle)
*I'm making this (partially) play because Big Al is back. This is good for Hawk's backers, not bad, at least for the first few games as what has been working so well for the Bobcats recently has not included post play.

Toronto @ Houston
1* Raptors +7.5 (-107, $1.93 Pinnacle)
*Rockets stars sick with the flu, will still play however. Harden also sore and sick. Raptors have some nice ATS stats in this position.

Minnesota @ LA Clippers
1* Over 105.5 (-107/$1.93 Sportsbet)

No more plays...

Does your opinion change with Duncan sitting out?

Nope I was aware of that. This is more about Philli than SA.