[Grunch]

Really hard to see it other way here really. I don't like to do this "bragging" stuff but this is one of the easiest plays we will get all year in my opinion, honestly. Only reason I didn't triple dime the shit out of this was because its so early in te season. Still glad I tailed you sando on the 1st half 'cause I can never do half plays for myself.

It always seems easy after results are in. When things don't go your way the play seems less obvious. I'm also glad I tailed sando cause I can't do any plays.

[thorny]

Well done, Sando...getting that mojo back

[JM92]

I'm sorry but I don't see things that way. For me if a play is not "easy", before the game, I'm not even making it. There's no point in betting because you think that has a chance to hit. You bet because you think it will hit, period. At least this is the only way it works for me.

Still, when I meant easy, I was talking about the spot where both teams were, with the Sixers clearly starting to get overvalued, having to face a bad matchup, and with the Warriors having their eyes really open for them. If the Warriors went back to Philly a month from now, you can bet the line would be at least 8/8.5.

[OZnBa Fan]

I'm sorry but I don't see things that way. For me if a play is not "easy", before the game, I'm not even making it. There's no point in betting because you think that has a chance to hit. You bet because you think it will hit, period. At least this is the only way it works for me.

Still, when I meant easy, I was talking about the spot where both teams were, with the Sixers clearly starting to get overvalued, having to face a bad matchup, and with the Warriors having their eyes really open for them. If the Warriors went back to Philly a month from now, you can bet the line would be at least 8/8.5.

I reckon it would be more then that

[DaddyWarBuck$]

NBA Monday

GS @ Philly
2* Warriors 1st Half -3.5 (-105/$1.95 Pinnacle)
1* Warriors -6.5 (-102/$1.98 Sportsbet/IAS)

(I think I might possibly be the only person on SBR today who doesn't like Philly ATS)

Another play to follow in a bit...

Nice hit! Any other plays on tonighte roster my dude?

[Goat Milk]

Yeah I haven't really eased myself into the season like I was planning to, however... ten of them have been 2nd half plays, couple of props as well, couple of situational plays. Anyway you know I'm a high volume bettor and if you (or anyone) had put in the amount of pre season work that I had then you would have been feeling pretty confident as well.

Yeah you're one of the best if not the best during the reg season

[Grunch]

I'm sorry but I don't see things that way. For me if a play is not "easy", before the game, I'm not even making it. There's no point in betting because you think that has a chance to hit. You bet because you think it will hit, period. At least this is the only way it works for me.

Still, when I meant easy, I was talking about the spot where both teams were, with the Sixers clearly starting to get overvalued, having to face a bad matchup, and with the Warriors having their eyes really open for them. If the Warriors went back to Philly a month from now, you can bet the line would be at least 8/8.5.

So you're saying you would have made the comment about how "easy" the play was even if it had lost. Or since you only make easy plays they never lose.

To say that it was the easiest play you'll see all season but you didn't bet big because it's only the beginning of the season is a complete contradiction. You can't claim it was a really obvious play and then name the reasons why you didn't trust it so much. It's either an obvious play or it's not.

The fact is you thought it was a good play but then you see them win by 30 points and suddenly it becomes obvious that it was the easiest play ever. They could have easily not covered and then you wouldn't have commented on what an obvious play it was.

[KidSeoul]

Any advice for the Rockets/Clippers game?

[sando]

Yeah you're one of the best if not the best during the reg season

Im just like you Goat - thoroughly obsessed with the game, I love NBA (despite all the constant and horrible rule changes) although I'd be the first to admit that I don't have anywhere near the "technical" knowledge that you possess, however I have played JV high school in NY and at other levels and also coached (at a very low level).

[sando]

Any advice for the Rockets/Clippers game?

Yeah play the under or take the points with the Rockets. I had to talk myself out of a ml play on the Rockets today, and I know the over is a very popular play, however Houston's defence looks legit with Beverly, Asik, D12 and I think there will be at least 1 40-45 point Q.

[gopolks]

Yeah play the under or take the points with the Rockets. I had to talk myself out of a ml play on the Rockets today, and I know the over is a very popular play, however Houston's defence looks legit with Beverly, Asik, D12 and I think there will be at least 1 40-45 point Q.

Sando your a genius. :-)

[kneighfe]

Any HT play for the HOU @ LAC match sando?

[sando]

Sando your a genius. :-)

Haha I assume your being sarcastic. the live line is like 240. What was I thinking?

[gopolks]

I think the over is going to happen.

[gopolks]

Haha I assume your being sarcastic. the live line is like 240. What was I thinking?

My comment was your prediction of a 40 point Quarter for a team. :-)

[sando]

Any HT play for the HOU @ LAC match sando?

I predict the 2nd half total will be around 108-112. The over might actually be the play. Of course they can't keep this fg% up for 48 minutes, but the tempo alone could just crash this total through regardless of shooting %'s

[No coincidences]

I predict the 2nd half total will be around 108-112. The over might actually be the play. Of course they can't keep this fg% up for 48 minutes, but the tempo alone could just crash this total through regardless of shooting %'s

Neither team is shooting above 40% from the field.

This is just a product of zero defense. Period. The shooting percentages aren't even that high.

[sando]

Neither team is shooting above 40% from the field.

This is just a product of zero defense. Period. The shooting percentages aren't even that high.

Actually mate the Rockets are shooting 52% and the Clippers are shooting over 60%...??

Half Time

Rockets - 24-46

52.2%

Clippers - 26-44

59.1%

[mattyg93]

Curious to why you thought the under. I understand they have some good defensive players but both these teams are high tempo. Did you think one would try to slow it down? I think its clear with the addition of dwight and not slowing down that they are locked in on pushing the ball. Thoughts?

[sando]

NBA 2nd Half Play

Surprised the total is so low. I guess this is the difference between a computer calculating a total, and a human actually watching/reading the game...

2* Houston @ LA Over 205 2nd Half (-110/$1.90 Pinnacle)

[Time is Money]

Vegas won't stray from what they cap a game at. If its 210 you can bet it's gonna be around 105 each half regardless of the outcome of the prior half

[Uncle Drew]

Neither team is shooting above 40% from the field.

This is just a product of zero defense. Period. The shooting percentages aren't even that high.

???

[sando]

NBA 2nd Half Play

Surprised the total is so low. I guess this is the difference between a computer calculating a total, and a human actually watching/reading the game...

2* Houston @ LA Over 205 2nd Half (-110/$1.90 Pinnacle)

Obviously that was Over 105 2nd Half - my bad. (I don't like to edit plays so as to maintain integrity).

[No coincidences]

???

Meant from 3.

[face]

yea threes not falling now

[No coincidences]

NBA 2nd Half Play

Surprised the total is so low. I guess this is the difference between a computer calculating a total, and a human actually watching/reading the game...

2* Houston @ LA Over 205 2nd Half (-110/$1.90 Pinnacle)

Talk about the easiest money ever....

Why this wasn't at least 112-114 I will never understand.

[No coincidences]

yea threes not falling now

They haven't really the whole game.

[sando]

NBA Monday

Another good day...


3-0 +5 units


ATS/ML 1-0
1st Half Plays 1-0
2nd Half Plays (live) 1-0


_________________________
2013/14 NBA Season
22-21 -1.06 units

ATS/ML 9-10
Totals 2-7
1st Half Plays 1-0
2nd Half Plays (live) 8-3
Props 1-1
1st Quarter's 1-0
_________________________
2012/13 NBA Season
290-246-17 +51.47 units
_________________________

[No coincidences]

I've been watching the NBA for a long time, and gambling on it for four full years.

I've never seen anything like this re: Clippers totals through four games. Books are stubborn and won't budge/adjust -- even at halftime.

Watch the games.

[face]

clippers/rockets easy overs, what's the problem? yes books should adjust but so should we

[ohdecas]

nice hit on Warriors tonight I was with you on the first half bet, thank you

[JM92]

So you're saying you would have made the comment about how "easy" the play was even if it had lost. Or since you only make easy plays they never lose.

To say that it was the easiest play you'll see all season but you didn't bet big because it's only the beginning of the season is a complete contradiction. You can't claim it was a really obvious play and then name the reasons why you didn't trust it so much. It's either an obvious play or it's not.

The fact is you thought it was a good play but then you see them win by 30 points and suddenly it becomes obvious that it was the easiest play ever. They could have easily not covered and then you wouldn't have commented on what an obvious play it was.

I don't think you understood what I meant, but it's probably my fault.

When I say easy, I say it in the sense that, before the game, that looks like what's going to happen. I mean, at least it's gotta be a little bit obvious for you, otherwise, way bet? If you don't think the Warriors will crush the Sixers on the inside etc etc. (just to give an example) which will lead to a win by over 7 points, then there's no point in betting. Even if they had not covered, I would remain with my idea that this was a obvious spot to bet the Warriors. From my point of view, it really was. And if I'm making a play by myself, that's the most important thing, that it looks to me like that, "easy", "obvious", "60%+ chance of hitting" etc. etc.

And I know it looks contradictory that I couldn't go big on it, but I don't even a bankroll setup yet since I just graduated and am looking for a job still, so I basically had to choices maintain my normal unit even though it represents a higher percentage than normal of my bankroll, or play lower money and be able to keep doing things just like I used to. I chose the first one, so if I had bet on this game what I would probably bet in the future on similar situations, it would've been like 25-30% of my bankroll. and that would just be really dumb from me.

anyway, nice posts. GL to you

[No coincidences]

Nice work, sando. You won't be in the red for long. I can guarantee everyone that.

[imarkp]

that clippers game was crazy. 144pt 1st half. was glad to be on board for that free money o104.5 2nd half.

[s2230011]

I think it's fair to say Ashley Klein forgot the rules there