NBA Sunday
Brooklyn @ Orlando
1* Under 195 (-109/$1.91 Pinnacle)
Atlanta @ LA Lakers
1* Lakers m/l (-102/$1.98 Pinnacle)
Wizards @ Heat
1* Heat -4 1st Quarter (-113/$1.88 Pinnacle)
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11-03-13 03:01 PM #8821
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11-03-13 03:23 PM #8822
Really like the Lakers bet. Just hope the rotations are fine today and that nick young decides to get the ball inside the basket. Only D'Antoni to let Shawne Williams play more minutes than Kaman lol
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11-03-13 03:32 PM #8823
What's the angle on the first quarter bet if you get time?...
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11-03-13 03:47 PM #8824
NBA Saturday
5-4 +0.61 units
ATS/ML 4-1
Totals 0-2
HT Plays 1-1
_________________________
2013/14 NBA Season
15-20 -9.06 units
ATS/ML 7-10
Totals 1-7
2nd Half Plays 7-2
Props 0-1
_________________________
2012/13 NBA Season
290-246-17 +51.47 units
_________________________
Well have had a truly horrible start to the year with my NBA totals, which last season were where I had the most success. This season have just been on the wrong side every game, although I was extremely unlucky to lose both Memphis unders (v. the Spurs & Pistons) but I have to remind myself it's the NBA and these things happen on a daily basis, and of course at some points during the season i will get lucky and probably hit a total or two that I have no right winning. So anyway for now, I am going to be extremely tight with playing totals. I have a 3 step system, where a total has to pass 3 different criteria before I deem it playable. At the moment that is obviously not working, so i will be patient, as the more the season continues, the more stats/data I will have to work with. In the meantime I will probably be playing a maximum of 1 (if any) totals per day, until I start getting the desired results (and I will).
The HT plays are doing well, and I will continue to post them when I see opportunities. Last season i didn't really post much half time stuff, however I did do very well with my live trading and half time plays. I'm naturally a big in-play bettor/trader. I love really locking into an individual game, and not focusing on the fancy plays or the individual highlights, but on the tempo, momentum swings, attitude of the players, fluidity of the offense, intensity on D, ball movement, etc, etc - the keys to successfully reading a live game.
I will have a winning season in NBA. Anything less than +50 units will be considered a major disappointment.
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11-03-13 03:53 PM #8825
Give us 10 minutes and I'll give you a quick analysis. (Just finishing a seperate play)
Originally Posted by Vinnie Paz
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11-03-13 04:04 PM #8826
Very little data to go on for this season, however last season Miami were a top 10 1st Q ppg team, and Washington were a bottom 10 1st Q ppg team.
The last 2 games on the road Miami has been punked badly in the 1st Q by Philly (down 19) and then Brooklyn (down 9). Now back at home and from what i know about the way coach Spo operates, intensity and focus from the beginning of the game will be what they are focussing on today.
Including pre-season Wizards have startted extremely slowly in 3 of their 4 away games this year.
Miami coming off a loss (let alone 2 in a row) have been great value ATS next game, (especially at home). You don't consistently crush games ATS by starting slowly and playing catch up ball, you do so by building a lead and then maintaining it throughout the game.
All i've got time for sorry.
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11-03-13 04:15 PM #8827
Sando, can i ask what site you use for qtr by qtr stats?
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11-03-13 04:23 PM #8828
Yeah man cool
Sando its still the first week and nba is a long grind. Just gotta wait for the trends ans data to come to ya. Takes time but the profits will come. NBA is a goldmine once you have enough numbers to work with. I've barely played anything and doubt I will get into it heavy for a few weeks . Anyhow, take care for now , ill check in soon
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11-03-13 04:26 PM #8829
Many different sites, however this is my favorite. Originally Posted by MatI
http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/Points Awarded:
MatI gave sando 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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11-03-13 04:33 PM #8830
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11-03-13 04:52 PM #8831
Pace of teams has just been really strange also. I'm personally going to stay away for awhile until I can figure out if teams like the Wizards are really going to play high pace or if the Suns are going to be an average paced team with Bledsoe and Dragic so many minutes on the floor at the same time.
IMPORTANT FACT: Right now average pace of the league is 3 more possessions per 48 minutes than last year. that's absolutely ridiculous.
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11-03-13 05:39 PM #8832
Nice start Sando...Heat QT line. BOOOMM
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11-03-13 06:12 PM #8833
good luck sand
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11-03-13 06:16 PM #8834
NBA 2nd Half Play
1* Brooklyn -5 2nd Half (+100/$2.00 Pinnacle)
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11-03-13 06:49 PM #8835
Tailed Miami 1Q. Thank you
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11-03-13 06:53 PM #8836
https://www.facebook.com/AFLPls
Sando, and others, I think you might enjoy this. There's also one for the Nba who just cracks me up.
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11-03-13 07:07 PM #8837
+1 Originally Posted by shevabets
Had to sweat the Orlando under! Scrubs came through last minute of garbage time.Last edited by MrXYZ; 11-03-13 at 07:24 PM.
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11-03-13 07:17 PM #8838
Tailed Orlando under. Thank you again.
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11-03-13 07:17 PM #8839
Even with a 114 point second half we still cash this, cheers Sando. Originally Posted by sando
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11-03-13 07:37 PM #8840
Adding...
NBA Prop's
1* Pau Gasol Over 9.5 Rebounds (-123, $1.81 Sportsbet/IAS)
Gasol looks primed to have a big season with Howard gone. Nice guy that he is, probably nobody happier that D12 has left town that Gasol. Anyway Gasol is a career 10+ rpg guy and now more than ever he has to shoulder the bulk of the post work, especially with the PF position being so weak for the Lakers. The Hawks have the smallest front court in the league (bar Miami) with 6'10" Horford and 6'7"-6'8" Millsap. Gasol will be the biggest player on the court at all times.
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11-03-13 07:39 PM #8841
Originally Posted by micase
With the luck i have had with my totals at the start of this season, I watched the last 2 minutes of that game with a sick feeling in my stomach as suddenly everyone on the court decided it was time to "get buckets" and to get them as quickly as possible. Where amazing happens... Originally Posted by MrXYZ
+1
Had to sweat the Orlando under! Scrubs came through last minute of garbage time.
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11-03-13 08:03 PM #8842
Mate, love the play on Gasol, but I'm staying away from Lakers props. Been burnt a few times this year.
They are really letting the bench play - Kaman and Hill are getting far too many minutes. No-one is playing more than 30 minutes per game on that team... Pau's highest is 29. Even when the game was on the line, they continued to sit Gasol vs Spurs until very late... i realize that despite this, he's still put up at least 10 boards per game (apart from the blow out vs warriors).
If Pau played his normal 34-35 minutes, it'd be easy, but you have reduced minutes. Hawks also take one of the leagues fewest shots per game.
Just my 2c pal. Hope you win. Hate to be the person in here second guessing a play, but just trying to impart my thoughts for when people look at Laker props in the future.Points Awarded:
sando gave Gee 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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11-03-13 08:10 PM #8843
Hey Sando, considering signing up to Sportsbet. What's the site like? Would I be charged for withdrawals if living outside of Australia?
Last edited by unitedlad; 11-03-13 at 08:21 PM.
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11-03-13 08:11 PM #8844
Killing it on the Rugby plays Sando.. Strait up win today on +9.5 spread! Just to let everyone know I'm personally riding the 6ers spread wise until the wheels fall off. Originally Posted by sando
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11-03-13 08:14 PM #8845
To anyone interested here are two middles I've found on the Lakers game and sorry if I'm clogging up your thread Sando
Atlanta vs LA Lakers
Al Horford Points
U18.5 $1.85 TAB
O15.5 $1.77 Sportsbet
He hits 16,17,18 at around a 20% clip.
Adding
Nick Young Points
U12.5 $1.87 Sportsbet
O11.5 $2.20 Bet365
Guarenteed return of 1% of your optimal stake + the 12 point middle.Points Awarded:
sando gave micase 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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11-03-13 08:22 PM #8846
Massive range of sport, both local and international Originally Posted by unitedlad
Decent odds, not great, usually -108 on sides
Tons of live betting options
Owned by Paddy (who are notorious for banning winners) - regardless super safe and reliable book
very quick payouts
If you join, then also should make an IAS account as they are exactly the same, but you can get two deposit bonuses (usually about $200 each book)
Thanks for the offer, very kind, but I think it's only $50 free bet so not fussed, plus also SBR will ban you and/or me for talking about referral's (as happened to my buddy realdealAU).
Definitely an important part of any diversified sports betting portfolio. Personally it's my #2 most important book, behind only Pinnacle.
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11-03-13 08:29 PM #8847
Unfortunately the book doesn't allow a number of jurisdictions to bet there (Canada, USA, + others). So may want to double check if your jurisdiction is not restricted Originally Posted by unitedlad
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11-03-13 08:39 PM #8848
. Okay so how about for us North Americans then, any books somewhat similar? Originally Posted by bmoney76
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11-03-13 08:42 PM #8849
Originally Posted by sando
Thanks for the replies. I'm from Ireland, so qualifies for UK. Had a check and it's not prohibited. I'm not a big time better i.e. unit sizes are probably smaller than you guys. I just do it for a hobby. It's more the analysis of sports and trying to get the edge on the bookmakers that interests me.
Owned by Paddy you say? Could be the same owners of PaddyPower here in the UK. Although, I've been hugely successful with them and had no indication of being banned. They offer markets on WWE, which is crazy as it's basically giving away money.
Just had a look at the Ts&Cs for Sportsbet and it says that they charge a withdrawal fee for international transfers, so might stay away. It's just that we don't really have a bookie over here that offers odds on player props for NBA. Bet365 offers some with juiced up odds. Have been considering opening a 5dimes account as they have a great range of prop markets for both NBA and NFL.
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11-03-13 09:18 PM #8850
sando, have you used any SBR recommended sportsbook 'cash'?
I am about to choose one of the following:
sports interaction, bookmaker, betdsi, sportbet, bodog and spend my points to get a '$100 cash with 5x rollover' at the selected book.
If you had to rank them, which would you rank the best/second best*? I'm interested in a range of betting options but mainly 2H betting for NBA/NCAAB/WNBA and possibly NFL/NCAAF. Any advice is very welcome.
-------------
*Unfortunately I am already signed up for pinnacle and 5dimes so those are off the table... They would definitely be top 1st/2nd...
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11-03-13 09:30 PM #8851
What do I know? Originally Posted by sando
Bang. Nice hit already.
Lakers started well too.... but who knows with the NBA.
Bounce back day.
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11-03-13 09:31 PM #8852
Not even HT time yet. Cash this bitch. Originally Posted by sando
When you talk I listen. I am always interested in your opinion mate. Originally Posted by Gee
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11-03-13 09:45 PM #8853
I might fade Lakers ATS when Kobe returns. The team is playing as a cohesive unit but this ends when he comes back and starts taking every shot.
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11-03-13 09:48 PM #8854
Just use moneybookers to move money around. Sometimes the forex rate is a bit dodgy (not significant, but you get the worst price), but better than international transfer fees. Originally Posted by unitedlad
Paddypower actually juice the player props more than the aussie books that they own! At least, they did last year... haven't checked out their site this year.
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11-03-13 10:34 PM #8855
They offer $1.83 on the exact same markets and lines that sportsbet offers at $1.87 on basketball and NFL player props I've seen. Originally Posted by Gee
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