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I agree with your assessment that Pacific Island teams will do well against European counterparts-for mine Tonga will be the fourth strongest team in the cup.
I think the Cook Islands are a chance of topping their pool as well, although drawing an inter-pool match against Tonga doesn't help their cause. There'll definitely be money-making opportunities.
Don't normally bet pre-season NBA and I certainly won't be counting this on my official record however I DO like the Warriors today @ Utah
Jazz's first game, whole new team, take time to gel, etc. Warriors playing their 3rd pre-season game and Curry was hot against the Kings. Warriors probably take the Pacific this season...
1* Warriors m/l
0.5* Warriors +2.5
best price is $2.15 @ Sportsbet/IAS
Lakers at home are also worth considering for half a unit or so against the Nug's. Lot of guys trying to earn some rotation time (i.e - play hard) in this new look Lakers squad, and $2.86 (Sportsbet/IAS) is a generous price.
ITM Cup
Otago @ Northland
1.5* Otago -3 ($1.87 Luxbet)
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Hi Sando. What are your toughts about MMA later tonight ?
Any good info/tips about ? Any surprises i should watch out ?
Thanx
With SBW playing I rate NZ a much stronger chance than they're being given credit for. Shaun Johnson's going to have to have a good tournament if they are to win but JWH, Matulino, Bromwich, Moa, Kasiano look so impressive up front, I'm sure they'll lay a great foundation through the middle, and this is the exact side that Luke can be useful in as well. I think they'll kill England.Originally Posted by sando
If Rangi Chase plays for England, then we might see Luke finish the job on him this time!!!
NZ will not kill England, not a chance. This is a new era in English sport, the exact same thing is happening in the netball, the Pom's have closed the gap severely on the Aussies and Kiwi's and recently roughed the Aussie girls up in a series in England. Not sure how closely you follow the Super League but I assure you there are some serious game breakers in this English squad, they will be competitive, you'll see...
Isaac Luke is the most competitive beast going around. Watch him beat up on NZ Rugby royalty in Christian Cullen with relative ease. This is a man who at the peak of his powers was the quickest man on the All Blacks AND the strongest (benched the most).
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jOMovNiQ1_Y
Last edited by sando; 10-09-13 at 03:33 PM.
ITM Cup
Wellington @ Hawke's Bay
The unbeaten Lions have revealed their intentions to remain that way by naming a full strength squad to travel to Hawke's Bay. The line has dropped a crucial half point at Sportingbet/Centrebet to 9.5 making this playable.
1.5* Wellington -9.5 ($1.91 Centrebet)
I've got nothing personally for tonight, but a good mate of mine (and MMA head) has TJ Dillashaw, Maia, Maldonado via decision, and Silva via KO.
Lining up my biggest fight play in years, rare opportunity, contemplating a 5 unit bet on an underdog who should be a big favourite.
More work to do, will post within a week...
You might be talking about Dong Hyun Kim, opened at +235, has tightened more than 30% from this...i just got some at +173.50 after commission at matchbook...can get at +167 now at 5d.
just re-read your post and you said "within a WEEK"...not tonight...(and ur friend maybe has him getting KO'd--there are two Silva's going B2B)...
anyhow, the above play is just a "risk 0.58u to win 1u" flyer for me...my first two plays tonight (on Santos and Palhares) split (dog won/fave lost)...so comes down to this for me
Last edited by fitguy67; 10-09-13 at 08:31 PM.
one more i like on tonight's UFC...Shields/Maia, o4.5 rounds, at -110 (1.10u to win 1u)
cant believe silva couldnt knock hamill out, that was pathetic
Rangi is his cousin or something as well isn't he?
I don't follow as keenly as the NRL but I keep an eye on it. I'm not saying England are hopeless, I would consider them with the start against Australia, but I see nothing in their favor other than the home ground. Really going to need some of that famous English weather if they are any chance of an upset.
Let's hope he goes better than he did against Manly, that was laughable.
Silva missed weight and came in very soft, obviously didn't train very hard in camp.
was gonna beat on kim but left it after that thiago silva crap...dang
davo, this is precisely why bet-size discipline (a term i greatly prefer to the overly-general "money management") is so important...
divide up your bankroll (=your total supply of "gunpowder") into MANY (most recommend 50-or-so/I suggest at least 100) equal-sized "bullets" (units)...so that after the invevitable bad spells/beats u still have LOTS of bullets left...and can keep firing. Thiago bet sucks...who cares, plenty more bullets where that comes from...Kim, bang!
if u let overly-large bets chew up too much of your ammunition, u get EITHER frustrated and overly-tentative/-careful cuz u get scared of wiping out yet again AND/OR overly aggressive cuz ur fear of going busto works the other way and u try to get-it-back quickly with big hail-mary plays
...then Murphy's Law comes into play and tortures you with a few more improbable results, like the events just KNOW what side you're on and need to win...aaaarrrggghhh...been there, done that...
divide your powder into 100 bullets minimum, and play TO WIN (not risk, WIN...this will get you into the habit of loving value-dogs and being very wary of even well-selected faves...the opposite--and IMO a better-- bias than most adhere to)...to WIN 1 freakin' bullet on each play...
lotsa small bullets=lots staying power=never need to say "no" to something really good because of recent results...
_________
your comment was the spring-board for this post, but i write it as much/more for myself...as it got me thinkin' about how bad beats would disable me in the past and how i've adjusted... writing this helps to consolidate lots of things I had to learn the hard way...
i like this sports-investment stuff and i like havin' lots of backup bullets...but i know these forum's are full of "pound it hard" bravado but i've discovered POUND IT HARD NOW = HAVE TO RELOAD LATER (and usually a hell of a lot sooner than later)...
Last edited by fitguy67; 10-10-13 at 10:55 AM.
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I am pretty sure he is talking about dos Santos, since he said it will be posted within a week. Currently a $3.00-dog. But great play on Stun Gun.
i think u'r right...pretty close to a coin-toss with a double-payout promo on DS...a shorter fight should favor DS, a longer fight favoring Velasquez...should be a barn-burner...and nice to get the heavily-discounted ticket
No boys I'm talking about boxing. 4-5 units is a significant amount of money for me, so just want to make sure I've covered all the angles before I post the play.
Shane Mosley maybe? I think he'll knockout Mundine
Sando you playing the Rugby 7's mate?
UFC HW-Championship next Sat, Oct 19th...
Junior DosSantos still at +200 at bet365...+190 or lower evrerywhere else...
this is the "best of 3" rubber-match...and DosSantos has a hell of a lot better chance of winning his title back than the 33.33% implied by this price...
risking 0.5u to win 1.0 units
Last edited by fitguy67; 10-12-13 at 10:32 PM.
Brown Pride by TKO or Dec. This fight will look like the second one, Cain will take him down at will and GNP him. Don't like that guy but he's just too good.
You may very well be right. Could be a replay of the 2nd one...or a replay of the 1st one...or something altogether different. I agree with you that an in-the-zone Cain is a beast, and he shouId definitely be favored , I just see this as closer to a coin-flip than the odds indicate...meaning it's worth the pop...The best Cain probably is markedly better than the best JDS (just as the best Nadal is clearly better than the best DelPotro)...but rarely in sports, are both opponents at their best on the day. That's where the dice roll comes in--determining which sides actually show up.
For example, Nadal is better than Delpo...but yesterday a below-average Nadal lost to an above-average Delpo...this has happened 4 times now in the 12 times they met)...when you bet on sports, you're essentially betting on the "roulette spin" of what sides actually show up to the event. Do I think dos Santos will win Saturday? Honest answer is "not really" because I know the probability is definitely less than 50%...BUT as long as i have correctly assessed the likelihood to be greater than the mere 33.33% implied by the odds...then I know for sure that "character building" bets like these are good for my account because the occasional $-pop of the "surprise wins" more than offset the calculated $-leakage caused by the unsurprising losses.
I didn't really think StunGun had much of a chance against Erick Silva last weekend either...just better than the odds indicated. So I bet on him. If you keep taking bets like this that you really don't expect to cash...just because they are where the value lies (ie. good for your account over the long haul)...your account will grow cuz there are surprises galore in sports. That's why they play the games/hold the fights.
Taking value bets are like eating spinach...a good habit to get into, maybe unpleasant each time you do it, but definitely good for you in the long run.
Last edited by fitguy67; 10-13-13 at 05:40 PM.
The mathematics of sports betting. Excellent write up.
The value no doubt is with JDS, however I think Cain will murder him personally.
Speaking of the fight game - will have some MMA & boxing plays myself soon...
Preseason NBA
LAKERS vs WARRIORS
Game Total OVER 200 x1 @1.90
I normally lay off the preseason but the NBA is showcasing its push into the Chinese market tonight in Beijing (approx 10:30pm Sydney time). It's basically an exhibition game and that means points galore. I'm expecting minimal defense to get in the way of the dunks & 3 pointers.
Last edited by MrXYZ; 10-15-13 at 12:19 AM.
Totally agree Mrxyz, free flowing game, plenty of buckets, bring it on.
Football
Asian Cup
All bets at Pinnacle
Thailand @ Iran
1.5* Iran -2 & -2.5 ($1.99)
Iran at home against a weak Thai team. Could be 4 or 5 nil?
Iraq v Saudi (neutral venue)
0.5* Saudi Arabia m/l ($3.07)
Iraq in terrible form and playing a home game without the home ground advantage. Great value on the Saudi's.
China @ Indonesia
1* China -1.5 ($1.78)
Chinese football is in the middle of a massive growth spurt, and while there FIFA ranking doesn't yet reflect it, this is a team on the rise with a never ending supply of talent. Indonesia can be tough to break down, but still think China is a 2 goal better team, they have been poring in the goals lately.
Kuwait @ Lebanon
1* Lebanon +0.5 ($1.69)
Kuwait is the superior team, however Beirut is a very hostile and intimidating place for opposing teams to play football, and Lebanon is a much better team at home with strong recent home results against Iraq, South Korea and Syria. Can definitely get the draw, and maybe even win.
WCQ - Africa
Egypt @ Ghana
0.5* Ghana -0.5 & -1 ($2.07)
Ghana with some shitty results recently but they were in friendlies. They have played well in their WQC to date. Egypt in better form however Ghana still the overall superior team and playing at home an added bonus.
More to follow...
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WQC - Europe
Netherlands @ Turkey
1* Over 2.5 ($1.72)
1* Netherlands m/l ($2.76)
Just a fantastic football team all around, unbeaten in 14 straight games. Turkey need the win and will have to push forward, leaving Holland real dangerous on the counter-attack. Should not be the dog's here IMO. Turkey marketed as a tough place to travel but their recent home results say otherwise.
WCQ - Europe
Germany @ Sweden
1.5* Over 2.5 & 3 ($1.79)
Both sides have already qualified so expect a wide open free flowing game with lot's of goals. A 2-3 or even 3-3 score line would not be surprising (first leg in Germany was actually 4-4 and less pressure on both sides this time around).
Slovenia @ Switzerland
0.75* Switzerland m/l ($2.11)
The Swiss are red hot, un-beaten in WCQ and easily qualified top of their group, however they are a proud team and will not want to end their campaign with a loss at home against a team they beat 2-0 on the road. Slovenia have to win and will push hard, Swiss can hurt them bad in the counter attack. Great value on the Swiss at home, but just a small wager as this is essentially a friendly for Swiss.
Remember that the Swiss can still reach top 8 of the FIFA world ranking if they win tonight, giving them a great advantage in the World Cup draw. With that said, the pick is a good one imo.
I am Swiss and the tickets of tonight match are sold out. I think Hitfeld will give a chance to some "reserve" players to show what they are capable of. I expect these players will give 110% tonight. I think Switzerland ML is a solid bet.
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Crowing Capers gave sando 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
