[brumbies]

yep i expect something similar from their previous h2h(118-76).

hawks -7 and over 166.5

[Domestic]

Nice to see Pinnacle offering an AFL Total Line, at O167.5 at the moment.

[aussieH]

Hawks and game total over for me as well.

[brumbies]

most books offering 2.00 odds on coin toss

who is silly to actually bet on that?

[sando]

Will update my records in AFL and NRL when I can. An outstanding NRL season, one of my best. An average AFL season, one of my worst. Winding up for the NBA now. Daily plays as opposed to weekend plays = money.

[rohan22no]

Will update my records in AFL and NRL when I can. An outstanding NRL season, one of my best. An average AFL season, one of my worst. Winding up for the NBA now. Daily plays as opposed to weekend plays = money.

Sweet! thanks Sando. Looking forward to the daily plays!!

[aussieH]

Good to see you dropping back in Sando. Been quiet with less footy to bet on

[MTM]

Will update my records in AFL and NRL when I can. An outstanding NRL season, one of my best. An average AFL season, one of my worst. Winding up for the NBA now. Daily plays as opposed to weekend plays = money.

Pumped for the NBA too. The first few weeks I think there'll be opportunity to cash in on betting against overrated teams such as brooklyn (my opinion) and betting on underrated teams like Chicago, Cleveland, New Orleans and even lakers.

[sando]

Just in case anyone is interested I think Easts will win and probably cover in the g/f.

Also I would strongly recommend against auto-playing the under (33.5) just based on the week 1 finals game played between these two game which ended 4-0. There were many missed opportunities by both teams in that game. Also Brett Stewart as Manly's third playmaker and a class A finisher makes Manly a far more potent offensive team. Plus the Roosters were outright scary in attack last week and Manly weren't too shabby either, particularly in the 2nd half, they put 40 and 30 points respectively on two quality defensive units in Souths and Newcastle.

So yes we are talking about the two premier defensive units in the comp in Manly and Easts, however this will be a different game I think. Tough and hard at first but highly likely to open up after half time, especially if one team gains a 2 try lead early. I actually have a slight lean towards the over myself but no plays as of yet.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Easts a special and lean over given the low total.

Without JWH, Moa getting injured in the first 2 minutes and on the back of a 12-5 penalty count, Easts struggled for field position through the middle of the park. This will be a totally different game and Manly have had a hard passage to the grand final which may take a toll. Easts showed a lot of heart to defend their line, I think they might be able to get on top with JWH leading through the middle and a low penalty count.

Must concede Manly's attack is sharper with Stewart at the back. But to those suggesting that the first game means a Manly win simply by Stewart's presence, you are living in a dream world as far as I'm concerned.

[MrXYZ]

I'm on the Roosters to cover,

[s2230011]

I am actually leaning Manly .. so a bit of a worry to see everyone on the other side.

I think if Manly wins Cherry Evans will be a a good chance of Clivechurchiill medal, thats reflected in the price I guess

[snufflyjoe]

Sports bet has the same promo from a few weeks back if your team loses by less than 10pts you get your stake back (up to 100) saved my ass in the cowboys match!. Knowing this who should I play?

[Cubanpete]

Any thoughts on tonights ITM game Sando?

[Shazzadude]

Any thoughts on the netty tonight? I like Australia ML and 1-5.

[sweepem]

Any thoughts on tonights ITM game Sando?

Bay of Plenty + the points and Otago and Wellington - the points.

[gimps_77]

surely waikato come out firing against BOP?

[Shazzadude]

I lean Waikato, North Harbour and Wellington. I'm not particularly enthused about any of them though.

I am, however enthused about Canterbury -23.5 tomorrow.

[gimps_77]

got waikato
time for second game and again gotta go with the team that has a shot at semi finals play. North harbour have some key outs aswell
Otago for win $1.78

[sweepem]

Bay of Plenty + the points and Otago and Wellington - the points.

Otago + Wellington, Bay of Plenty lose by 3.

[Ohhsnap]

Boxing
Miguel-Cotto-V-Delvin-Rodriguez
cotto to win by points/decision
3 units

[Cobra Kai]

1* Trinidad & Tobago ($2.62 Bet365) vs Mumbai Indians

2* Rajasthan Royals ($1.95 Centrebet) win CLT20a

[gimps_77]

I think Windsor +8.5 is a good play in nsw cup grand final

[gimps_77]

anyone think JWH will win clive churchill?

$17?

[sando]

After considerable thought and a bit of research I’ve actually changed my mind on the G/F.

I like Manly to win and also a small lean on the under. (Originally I said Roosters and the over).

Manly with the better halves and ¾ line, while the Roosters have the better forwards.

Just for fun - Daly Cherry-Evans for Clive Churchill and RogerTuivasa-Sheck for 1^st try scorer.

I’m expecting big games from DCE, Watmough, Lyon and both Stewart brothers for Manly and Jennings, JWH, Friend, Maloney and Tupou for the Roosters. Not convinced SBW and/or Pearce will deliver for the Roosters.


Prop Bets
Not putting these on my official SBR record (mainly just because I can’t be bothered) but just sharing for anyone who is interested… These are real money prop bets however, based on hours of analysis combined with my instinctsfor the game.

Sportsbet/IAS
1* Jennings v Matai most metres H2H
0.5* Jennings v Minichiello most metres H2H
0.5* Tupou v Shaun Kenny-Dowell most metres H2H
1* B. Stewart v Minichiello most supercoach H2H
0.5* J. Friend v Ballin most supercoach H2H

Luxbet
1.25* Tafua v D. Williams most metres H2H
0.75* Foran v Kenny-Dowell most tackles H2H
0.5* Lyon v Jennings most tackles H2H
0.5* Watmough v Sonny Bill Williams most metres H2H
0.5* Lawrence v Kite most runs H2H
0.5* Kite +5.5 v Moa Supercoach line H2H
0.5* Watmough over 120.5 metres
0.5* G.Stewart -22.5 v Nuuausala Supercoach H2H
0.5* Matai +5.5 v Shaun Kenny-Dowell Supercoach H2H
0.5 Watmough v Sonny Bill Williams most Supercoach H2H
0.5 Daly Cherry-Evans v Lyon most supercoach H2H
0.5* B.Stewart -11.5 v Miniechello most supercoach H2H

[rohan22no]

Royals to beat indians you reckon cobra? 2.10

[rohan22no]

Thanks Sando!!

[aussieH]

Good work Sando. Going to play some under player stat bets myself.

[Cobra Kai]

Royals to beat indians you reckon cobra? 2.10

Sounds good to me, Royals the more balanced team with superior bowling. Mumbai have not looked solid all tournament, even last night they were lucky with T&Ts second most important bowler going out injured before bowling a ball due to a dislocated shoulder from a dive.

Royals have looked good all tournament and I'm counting on that form to continue for the final.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Fkn refs with their dodgy calls
forward passes not called
no sin bins
JWH headbutt

Roosters were there for the taking, they made way too many errors but Manly couldn't capitalize.

Poor play from Wolfman, his decision not to contest any bombs cost Manly.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Fkn refs with their dodgy calls
forward passes not called
no sin bins
JWH headbutt

Roosters were there for the taking, they made way too many errors but Manly couldn't capitalize.

Poor play from Wolfman, his decision not to contest any bombs cost Manly.

I ended up very heavily invested on Easts, I was backing them in the futures market after every week.

After all the complaining about the officials I did, they ended up getting the rub of the green in the one that really mattered

[sando]

Sportsbet/IAS
1* Jennings v Matai most metres H2H - Lose
0.5* Jennings v Minichiello most metres H2H - Cash It
0.5* Tupou v Shaun Kenny-Dowell most metres H2H - Lose
1* B. Stewart v Minichiello most supercoach H2H - Cash It
0.5* J. Friend v Ballin most supercoach H2H - Cash It
Luxbet
1.25* Tafua v D. Williams most metres H2H - Cash It
0.75* Foran v Kenny-Dowell most tackles H2H - Cash It
0.5* Lyon v Jennings most tackles H2H - Cash It
0.5* Watmough v Sonny Bill Williams most metres H2H- Lose
0.5* Lawrence v Kite most runs H2H - Lose0.5* Kite +5.5 v Moa Supercoach line H2H - Lose
0.5* Watmough over 120.5 metres - Lose
0.5* G.Stewart -22.5 v Nuuausala Supercoach H2H - Cash It
0.5* Matai +5.5 v Shaun Kenny-Dowell Supercoach H2H - Cash It
0.5 Watmough v Sonny Bill Williams most Supercoach H2H - Lose
0.5 Daly Cherry-Evans v Lyon most supercoach H2H - Cash It
0.5* B.Stewart -11.5 v Miniechello most supercoach H2H - Cash It

A great end to a great NRL season for me. Had a small bet on Manly and got most of that refunded through Sportsbet promo as they lost by less than 10 points. Had half a unit on DCE for the Churchill @ $9.00 and quarter unit on Tafua first try scorer @ $15 - both with 50% extra from Sportingbet promo, also had RTS 1st try scorer at IAS with a 50% bonus, love raping the Aussie books with their finals promo's. Had 10 supercoach H2H bets all up (didn't post them all) and went 8-2. Supercoach is where it's at as far as prop bets go, definitely going to focus on that more next NRL season. Already starting to digest the never ending NBA season preview's. Here's a tip for those that plan on betting on the NBA this season - read as many individual team previews as you can find and try to read 2 or 3 at least for every team, so that you get a few different perspectives on how they might perform. There is always plenty of money to be made at the start of an NBA season as the books often struggle to gauge the level of many teams early on. See you all for NBA starting real soon...

[rohan22no]

Hey Sando - IASbet has marked my jennings v minichello bet as a loss....nrl website has mini 89 all run metres and jennings 66...

[shevabets]

Bravo, maestro!
Have you stopped posting on twitter btw?

[sando]

Hey Sando - IASbet has marked my jennings v minichello bet as a loss....nrl website has mini 89 all run metres and jennings 66...

Right you are mate, sorry. I use Daily Telegraph/Fox Sports for my stats as they include super coach, and at the Telegraph they have Jennings – 74 metres and Minichiello 66 metres, but when I checked my IAS account just now I saw that they have indeed marked it as a loss. All betting sites use theTelegraph/Fox Sports for super coach and the NRL for other statistics (which is gay as I find the Telegraph stats model to be far more accurate personally).

Oh I forgot, before the NBA season starts there is the Rugby League world cup, which I am already heavily invested in. Many books will under-estimate the strength of some of these Pacific nations and the damage they will to the European nations. Italy, France, Wales – all massive RugbyUnion names – however watch them get crushed by the likes of the Tongans, Fijians and Kumuls (PNG) regularly.
Also watch for England to emerge as a powerhouse this year, it’s no longer a two horse race in international rugby league. England will be more than capable of beating New Zealand and being competitive against Australia too. There are a handful of genuine superstars in the super league and when they are combined with the best of the NRL’s and Super league’s English talent and a forward pack that includes James Graham and an army of Burgess boys; well the squad they have put together is outstanding and definitely an outside chance of pinching the cup.
Will be hammering this tournament, stay tuned…