[rohan22no]

In its purest definition, a model, or modelling, is the act of taking any past data and using that to make a prediction about the future.

"Betting Model" can mean several things. The one that Sando and Myself were referring to above is not anything to do with betting. A "model", is something that predicts...well, anything. Sports models are very common and there are limitless ways to create them and limitless things to predict within the sport.

Some common sports models predict things such as team totals, game score totals, winning margins, % chance of win, etc etc.

In its crudest form a model could be - looking at this data, the home team wins more than the away team, so I predict in the next game the home team will win.

More sophisticated models are obviously required to predict things such as winning margins and % chance of win. These take into account things such as HGA, recent performances, past performance against specific teams and at specific grounds, some models are even "player based" where they assign ratings to each player and use that to predict the outcome.

A relatively simple but successful team based model uses the following formula. Assign each team with a rating, and use that to predict the margin of the match, also taking a HGA into account.

Home team rating + HGA - Away team rating = Home team winning margin

note - How the teams are assigned ratings is quite complex and beyond the scope of this post, but in short an effective way of doing it is taking into account past results of the team with the most recent games being more "meaningful" to the rating (by using a function like exponential smoothing or a moving average).

2 examples.

1. Storm v Panthers in Melbourne

Storm Rated 6
Panthers rated 2
Storm HGA 4

6 + 4 - 2 = 8, therefore storm predicted to win by 8

2. Raiders v Roosters in Canberra

Raiders rating -4
Raiders HGA 6
Roosters rating 9

-4 + 6 - 9 = -7, therefore roosters predicted to win by 7.

Hope that all makes sense, have got a fair bit of experience in this area and happy to answer any further questions. Also That Guy, XYZ and TGM are all good people to talk to about modelling in general.

[OZnBa Fan]

In its purest definition, a model, or modelling, is the act of taking any past data and using that to make a prediction about the future.

"Betting Model" can mean several things. The one that Sando and Myself were referring to above is not anything to do with betting. A "model", is something that predicts...well, anything. Sports models are very common and there are limitless ways to create them and limitless things to predict within the sport.

Some common sports models predict things such as team totals, game score totals, winning margins, % chance of win, etc etc.

In its crudest form a model could be - looking at this data, the home team wins more than the away team, so I predict in the next game the home team will win.

More sophisticated models are obviously required to predict things such as winning margins and % chance of win. These take into account things such as HGA, recent performances, past performance against specific teams and at specific grounds, some models are even "player based" where they assign ratings to each player and use that to predict the outcome.

A relatively simple but successful team based model uses the following formula. Assign each team with a rating, and use that to predict the margin of the match, also taking a HGA into account.

Home team rating + HGA - Away team rating = Home team winning margin

note - How the teams are assigned ratings is quite complex and beyond the scope of this post, but in short an effective way of doing it is taking into account past results of the team with the most recent games being more "meaningful" to the rating (by using a function like exponential smoothing or a moving average).

2 examples.

1. Storm v Panthers in Melbourne

Storm Rated 6
Panthers rated 2
Storm HGA 4

6 + 4 - 2 = 8, therefore storm predicted to win by 8

2. Raiders v Roosters in Canberra

Raiders rating -4
Raiders HGA 6
Roosters rating 9

-4 + 6 - 9 = -7, therefore roosters predicted to win by 7.

Hope that all makes sense, have got a fair bit of experience in this area and happy to answer any further questions. Also That Guy, XYZ and TGM are all good people to talk to about modelling in general.

Ahh I see, so how do they do that with totals?

[rohan22no]

That Guy is the man to ask. But its kind of what you would expect it to be, you'd want to be taking into account things such as...

Points scored/conceded in the last few games by each team
Scores between the 2 teams in previous games
Day/Night game?
etc.

What you do with those numbers is completely up to you, and its a matter of tinkering around and trying to make it successful. Thats where lots of past data comes in handy, so you can back-check how your model would have performed.

[OZnBa Fan]

Cheers for the info mate, I thought totals were based basically on stats well that's how I do them anyway, when people say models it confuses me cause I don't know much about them I guess

[rohan22no]

You're right, it is "stats" based completely. A model is simply the method of how one takes those stats into account when attempting to predict the next outcome.

[benrama]

Two different computer simulated models I have seen. (Not my own, I don't use models).

model A predicts the Tigers have a 6.29% chance of winning

model B clearly needs to be reprogrammed and insists the Tigers are a 15.4% chance of winning (hence making the correct odds $6.50 Wests and $1.18 Rabbitohs)

The odds suggest Wests have approximately 4.8% chance of winning and I would suggest this is the most accurate prediction hence making the odds for this match spot on.

Regardless of all the different variables in this game played with an odd shaped ball that can bounce in an unpredictable manner, and played by multiple unstable characters often with limited cognitive functioning, it is still a game that is played for 80 minutes which might not seem like much, however league is a very fast paced game with swift momentum changes possible and if you have played the game you would understand just how long 80 minutes of league is. My point is despite variables like lucky bounces, bad ref calls, timely 40-20's, in game injuries, etc, when you have such a significant gulf in class as is seen between these two sides there is more than enough time in 80 minutes of league (and more importantly - 2 separate 40 minute half's) for a team like the Rabbitohs to overcome whatever factors may go against them during the game and still pull out the win by the end.

Groundhog day this game 20 times and I would say the Tigers win once, ergo the odds are accurate in my humble opinion.

I used to play League and I agree with you that 80 minutes can be a bloody long time, particularly if you are getting pounded like our team used to

That said that there's a pure stats equation here, let's use high level numbers. On average a team gets what, 50 sets per game, and all up on average has 4 major scoring events. So on average you are scoring once every 13 sets, and once every 20 minutes of game time. If a team can get even one lucky try then it's essentially worth 20 minutes of game time and 13 sets on average. Two of these and it's 40 and 26.

Now I realise it's not as simple as this, as two teams can have wildly different offensive and defensive efficiency. That said - it takes very very little for a game to swing in the underdogs favour, and this applies to most sports that have only a few scoring chances.

This is the whole premise of underdog betting IMO, and why it works in sports like NRL, NFL, MLB, NHL and (arguably) soccer and not so much in sports like NBA and AFL.

But with all that said, I'm not betting the Tigers tonight. But I am holding my breath and betting the Titans ML on Sunday.

[s2230011]

I'm never game enough to take these but will be happily playing the lines. I think Newcastle will put up a fight tonight too

[rohan22no]

Just bet ML and the line as well to hedge :P

[sando]

Counties at home definitely looks good for a little splash against Tasman. Line seems a little short, was expecting -9.5 to -10, however Mako's been playing well first 2 rounds but they've got some key players injured and also local crowd at Pukekohe will be expecting a big effort after the opening round embarrasment at the hands of Wellington.

ITM Cup
Tasman @ Counties Manukau
1.5* Counties -7.5 ($1.91 Centrebet)

Game starts in an hour, been busy at work an forgot to post earlier.

[Rugby21]

Super league rugby tonight, weird one with hull fc travelling to Wigan only 6 days after the challenge cup final defeat to them. However wigan have rested a massive 11 first choice players due to them already finishing 3rd in the table in prep for the play offs, fc have to win to try and get a home play off (5th or 6th) and we should win against a depleted side. The weather is nothing like the final, I was soaked to the core walking to that game but its forecast for dry and cloudy so we should be ale to handle the ball after last weeks embarassment.
plays for the game hull by 13+ at 3.00 and hull ht/ft at 2.00. Hull -4 at 1.91.

After this one il be travelling to manchester city tomorrow for the football. Man city vs hull city. Can't see anything but a defeat for us here, man city are coming off a defeat to Cardiff and they can't afford to slip up twice early in the season if they want to keep pace with Man U and Chelsea, however ther is no pressure on us and we could sneak a goal. Small play both to score at 2.20.

if anyone wants to give us a follow on twitter I'm @chrishull21

[OZnBa Fan]

Paul Roos saying some interesting things on foxfooty

[aussieH]

What is roosy saying? Be careful on afl thus week. Maybe game totals for the over and the bombers with the points.

[OZnBa Fan]

He said if u asked him 12 weeks ago that he was 0% chance of coaching but now with all the speculation and constant questions being asked that he is about a 50/50 chance of taking the melbourne job. He also said brisbane is not a suitable place for him to move to with his family but moving to melbourne is.. This will create more pressure on him he will be thinking about it a lot more and I reckon he will end up at the dees. This will go wild over the weekend with the media no doubt

[burkestar]

Super league rugby tonight, weird one with hull fc travelling to Wigan only 6 days after the challenge cup final defeat to them. However wigan have rested a massive 11 first choice players due to them already finishing 3rd in the table in prep for the play offs, fc have to win to try and get a home play off (5th or 6th) and we should win against a depleted side. The weather is nothing like the final, I was soaked to the core walking to that game but its forecast for dry and cloudy so we should be ale to handle the ball after last weeks embarassment.
plays for the game hull by 13+ at 3.00 and hull ht/ft at 2.00. Hull -4 at 1.91.

After this one il be travelling to manchester city tomorrow for the football. Man city vs hull city. Can't see anything but a defeat for us here, man city are coming off a defeat to Cardiff and they can't afford to slip up twice early in the season if they want to keep pace with Man U and Chelsea, however ther is no pressure on us and we could sneak a goal. Small play both to score at 2.20.

if anyone wants to give us a follow on twitter I'm @chrishull21

Thanks i follow this comp too and was wondering why such a strange line for wigan when they had beaten hull just a week earlier,,,is this the case with any other games, i.e resting of players etc.?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Rohan - legend

[OZnBa Fan]

Bunnies are a good love bet right now?

[OZnBa Fan]

Bunnies are they a good live bet right now?

[angelo63]

Bunnies 1.72 at 18-0, I was driving and misssed it but now at the half 1.31 , which is still a good price and the over 9.5 tries at the half at Betvictor at 1.83 looks good as well
Bunnies Minus 8 is there as well.

[Cornelius]

Damn bad beat by broncos.. Up 14-0 to lose 26-18

[angelo63]

Classic example of a team that could not hold on for 80 mins with the Tigers. Class will come up trumps more times than not over 80 mins. Its a physical game and although the Tigers were eon top early they did not get over the Souths forwards who slowly slowly ground them out and scored tries through the big Burgess boys. This Rabbitohs team is showing some premiership type qualities in recent weeks, when being pressured they rally strongly and fight back to win. The Storm are different al together they get out fast and if they get away early they are very hard to peg back. This is going to be the best finals series in years.

[Lakey]

Hawthorn -12.5, unbelievable.

[Cornelius]

jeezus. what a shitty ass night. first broncos up 14-0 to lose at home 26-18 and hawthorn missing the cover by 1. unbelievably bad luck.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Classic example of a team that could not hold on for 80 mins with the Tigers. Class will come up trumps more times than not over 80 mins. Its a physical game and although the Tigers were eon top early they did not get over the Souths forwards who slowly slowly ground them out and scored tries through the big Burgess boys. This Rabbitohs team is showing some premiership type qualities in recent weeks, when being pressured they rally strongly and fight back to win. The Storm are different al together they get out fast and if they get away early they are very hard to peg back. This is going to be the best finals series in years.

Reverse the penalty count and maybe Wests even hold on and get the game. I saw some horrible officiating as per usual.

[Rugby21]

Thanks i follow this comp too and was wondering why such a strange line for wigan when they had beaten hull just a week earlier,,,is this the case with any other games, i.e resting of players etc.?

Don't think it's the case with any other games but il put it on here if I here anything, we haven't won at Wigan since 05 so where Definetley due a success there!

[OZnBa Fan]

Don't think it's the case with any other games but il put it on here if I here anything, we haven't won at Wigan since 05 so where Definetley due a success there!

Is hull the play then?

[Rugby21]

Is hull the play then?

Yep wigan have 11 out that played at wembley last week.

[OZnBa Fan]

Just the handicap?

[Rugby21]

Just the handicap?

Handicap, ht/ft and a smaller play on +13. May have a chunk on straight win at 1.57

[OZnBa Fan]

Handicap, ht/ft and a smaller play on +13. May have a chunk on straight win at 1.57

That confident?

[Rugby21]

That confident?

Very confident mate,
my plays are straight win, -4 handicap. -2 ht handicap. Ht/ft, to win by 13+ and alternative handicap -8.

[Cornelius]

Very confident mate,
my plays are straight win, -4 handicap. -2 ht handicap. Ht/ft, to win by 13+ and alternative handicap -8.

Line is up to -6 now. Would you still take it?

[Rugby21]

Line is up to -6 now. Would you still take it?

I'd still take it but try n get -5.5

[Cornelius]

whats your confidence level out of 10 at the -5.5 line mate?

[Rugby21]

whats your confidence level out of 10 at the -5.5 line mate?

A good 8 or 9

[Cornelius]

lets cash this! i have 1.5 units on it bol.