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Haha yeah it's great (and also kind of sad) that the kid is considered the best MMA fighter to come from Aus/NZ. He's young and he's training at a great gym, he's got plenty of time to make a name for himself. McGee is a beast - ex junkie who nearly died, now he fights like his life is on the line every fight. Insane cardio.Originally Posted by Gee
Well done Sando!! Up 5.01units...not bad for a lazy thursday arvo!! Warming up for a big weekend ay!
2nd bad beat in two days for me had benoit paire @ 2.80 to beat bogomolov jr in the tennis(bogo is horrid) was up 30-0 serving for the match and proceeds to lose, bogo was paying 15 bucks and I would have covered my ass but I was at the gym and my mobile net is not reliable enough for me to place a bet....so mad.
Yeah, that is the one thing that I've always found strange about Court. I think that is why I've never rated him. I figured those ex-junkie guys usually end up more like Mikey Burnett and slow down and have relapses that we don't hear about.
Yep, Aussie MMA is really rather poor.
Thought you were quitting gambling mate?
Cheers Sando that was fun. Home today and got to watch my first MMA. Nailed it.
The NRL website has the number of conversions made by teams but where can I find a stat for conversions attempted and made by players?
Peptides going to dominate the news again, Sandor Earl stood down for usage and trafficking of peptides. If other players are receiving these in the trafficking charges... this could get ugly. 2013 will be the year of the peptide in Aussie sports that is for sure...
Rugby league project seems to have all the current goalkickers stats, pretty easy to navigate the site. Just don't hit the first try converted markets too hard!
It's not good is it
If Canberra Raiders players start getting caught then that pretty much kills the case for them being "performance enhancing" - time for some better drugs boys!
the poor old raiders story just keeps getting better, 2/units on them U/18.5pts @1.75 vs warriors
lol.
I said the same thing when Demetriou said on Tuesday night that Melbourne Demons were the next target for AFL investigators. Most people forget that in April this year, Demons stood their club doctor down due to links to Dank. They will have to fold if they get done. What is the AFL going to do? Pay their fine for them?
Cheating their way (not to mention the tanking) to be the worst team in the AFL.
Get on the Saints big boys.
A lot of love for the Warriors - worries me a little.
They could rally and pull off an upset but then you'd have to hope the Warriors play badly enough to let that happen. The line is already out to 10 & will blow out further by kickoff. Might pass on this one myself.
I said I was taking a break until the ITM Cup started, which I did.
All good. Welcome back
Adding...
AFL
Hawthorn @ Sydney
2* Hawks -12.5 ($1.92 Sportsbet)
St Kilda v Freemantle
1.5* St Kilda +7.5 ($1.91 Centrebet)
1* St Kilda m/l ($2.25 Sportsbet)
Gold Coast v GWS
2* Gold Coast to win by 40+ ($1.94 Centrebet)
Port Adelaide v Carlton
1* Port to win by 1-39 ($2.40 Sportsbet)
***Essendon v Richmond - An unprecedented situation in the history of the AFL (dead rubber match), The Bombers will most likely actually win the game OR otherwise get flogged? With no previous similar situation to call upon, my advice would be to avoid this game (maybe look at the total but definitely avoid the line). Successful sports betting is about choosing your spots. This is not a spot to choose. There is tennis, footy, league and rugby to wager on this weekend, look elsewhere.
NRL
Warriors v Raiders
Adding 0.5 units to already existing bet for a total of 2 units. (2 units total @ $1.92 on Warriors)
0.5* Warriors -9.5 ($1.92 Sportsbet)
Roosters v Titans
1* Titans +24.5 ($1.93 Pinnacle)
Parramatta v St George (moved back to Parra stadium)
1.5* Parramatta m/l ($2.00 Pinnacle)
Melbourne @ Manly
1.5* Melbourne m/l ($1.75 Pinnacle)
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Totals to follow, probably tomorrow.
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Loving all the plays sando. I like Essendon but i'm a sicko.
Last edited by therealdealau; 08-29-13 at 07:56 AM.
Good to see you back posting Gee. You're right I'd forgotten about the Dees being in the mix earlier in the year - if they are caught yes it's hasta la vista. Cheating their way to the being the worst, that takes some skill
I suspect these PEDs are not all they are cracked up to be in a sport like AFL, where building muscle is not even necessarily always an advantage (I realise recovery time is in the mix too). I mean it's a banned drug and there deserve to be penalties, but it's not like in baseball or in cycling or athletics.
Hey sando, great work as of late those ufc picks this morning were ace.
If you could can you give us your reasoning for the Carlton game? I originally wanted to play Carlton simply because of the fact that their destiny is in their own hands. They win and they're through. Now having seen you on port its made me think twice...
Also if trigga reads this, where you been? Missing your bball plays!
Carlton with some big in's no doubt in Kreuzer, Garlett and Walker that everybody are getting excited about however they also have a big out in Mclean who has been one of their best recently and his contributions in defence will be sorely missed against a potent Port forward line who are bolstered by the inclusion of boom small forward Wingard. Carlton's midfield stocks continuing to take a hammering with Carazzo and Judd and now Mclean gone as well. Cassisi also another nice in for Port who are close to full strength with only Butcher and Carlile being the notable outs, however the fact that they have named Wingard and Cassisi shows they are serious about winning this game (Wingard could do with a rest). Carlile would be nice to cover Waite but the big fella (Waite) has been irrelevant lately anyway.
Obviously Carlton has more to play for with a win securing a finals berth, and Port already being assured a finals spot, however Port has there own motivation. Firstly this is the last AFL game ever being played at Aami stadium and there is no chance they will be playing at anything less than 100% in this historic situation (They are making a big deal out of this in Adelaide). Also Port got touched up bad by Freo last week, however before that they were in solid form winning 4 of 5 including a really competitive loss to Geelong where they completely ran over the top of the Cats in the 4th quarter at Kardinia. Port will be desperate not to head in to the finals on the back of two straight losses and I believe their desire will be as strong as the Blues who over the last month have 1 great win over Richmond surrounded by 3 losses to Freo, the Bulldogs and the Don's.
There is a reason why the Blues are in reality not supposed to be in the finals, they didn't get here by being unlucky, they are just not that good. This has been a really heavily hyped team however neither Murphy or Gibbs has taken "the next step" this season towards stardom, as was predicted. Judd was below his best and is now out, Yarran has seriously fallen out of favour with Malthouse, Betts down on form, Garlett dropped last week for disciplinary issues, Waite when not injured has a bad attitude and has kicked 1 goal in the 3 matches he's been back. Key forward?
Port on the other hand have been the darling of the AFL This season, turning things around so severely in just 1 off season. Behind new president Koshie and coach Hinkley everything is roses at Port and they are buoyed by their first finals appearance in some time. Unlike Carlton they are led by an inspirational skipper in Boak, the boys really get around him and this is one of the biggest differences between the attitudes of the two sides. Something is clearly not right at Carlton, but with all the drama at Essendon and Melbourne they have been able to fly under the radar this season.
When I am convinced that a game will be decided by less than 40 points (either way) then I look at the 1-39 as basically betting on the m/l and at $2.40 I think Port represents great value in a match where I see them as 55-60% probability. Obviously this is bizzare logic (who really knows when a blow out is coming)? but my methods of handicapping games are very different to others and they work for me.
Carlton is an average 4th quarter team (10-11 on the year), however Port is a beastly 4th quarter team (15-6) and even if the Blues took a 2-3 goal lead into 3QT I would remain confident Port would run them down with their superior fitness and the energy of the (sold out) home crowd.
Port are 8-3 at Aami this season with big wins over the Pies and Swans and the only losses being to the Cats, Hawks and Tigers. Port is a better team than Carlton at the moment. They have more potential with young guns coming through the ranks, they are a more consistent team and they are playing the last ever game at their horrible (but much loved) home stadium. With their season on the line Carlton have had a very poor month, other than 1 outstanding performance against Richmond (Consistency)? with constant disciplinary issues surrounding key players like Waite, Yarran, Garlett and Judd. When your best players are Simpson, Murphy, Robinson and Henderson, you probably don't deserve to make the finals anyway (although Simpson is a gun and Murphy occasionally shows glimpses of what he could be).
why are they closing down footy park?
Both Adelaide and Port are moving to Adelaide Oval as its more central and easier to get to in terms of transport etc.
I really hope you win your Port play, although it is a game I'll be watching only.
How awesome would Pies/North on Sunday be if Port wins??; effectively an elimination final and of all the teams fighting for it, they are the most worthy for me. Their average losing margin is 12.8 and have had losses of 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 12, 14, 15 and 16. Only bigger losses were to Freo and Sydney at 38 and 39. They really should already be there...
Sando, if you had to put a number on it - what % chance would you give the tigers of getting a win tonight?
Thank Sando for your THOROUGH write up. Much appreciated.
Also if anyone is interested I really like west coast, big build up for the retiring embly and selwood. Have a very good feeling about this game.
Two different computer simulated models I have seen. (Not my own, I don't use models).
model A predicts the Tigers have a 6.29% chance of winning
model B clearly needs to be reprogrammed and insists the Tigers are a 15.4% chance of winning (hence making the correct odds $6.50 Wests and $1.18 Rabbitohs)
The odds suggest Wests have approximately 4.8% chance of winning and I would suggest this is the most accurate prediction hence making the odds for this match spot on.
Regardless of all the different variables in this game played with an odd shaped ball that can bounce in an unpredictable manner, and played by multiple unstable characters often with limited cognitive functioning, it is still a game that is played for 80 minutes which might not seem like much, however league is a very fast paced game with swift momentum changes possible and if you have played the game you would understand just how long 80 minutes of league is. My point is despite variables like lucky bounces, bad ref calls, timely 40-20's, in game injuries, etc, when you have such a significant gulf in class as is seen between these two sides there is more than enough time in 80 minutes of league (and more importantly - 2 separate 40 minute half's) for a team like the Rabbitohs to overcome whatever factors may go against them during the game and still pull out the win by the end.
Groundhog day this game 20 times and I would say the Tigers win once, ergo the odds are accurate in my humble opinion.
Sweet reply Sando, very interesting and well thought out points. Thanks
Good to see you back posting Gee. You're right I'd forgotten about the Dees being in the mix earlier in the year - if they are caught yes it's hasta la vista. Cheating their way to the being the worst, that takes some skill
I suspect these PEDs are not all they are cracked up to be in a sport like AFL, where building muscle is not even necessarily always an advantage (I realise recovery time is in the mix too). I mean it's a banned drug and there deserve to be penalties, but it's not like in baseball or in cycling or athletics.Yes, I am enjoying posting regularly again. Also, the GF has been away for a while, so I have a lot more time to kill!!
The problem is that no-one knows if these things will work, but everyone is trying to get an advantage. I mean, last year Essendon cheated their way into losing half their list from soft-tissue injuries. If Melbourne are on it, that speaks for itself! Last year Cronulla finished mid table, although it was a big improvement on the year before.
Hey Sando,
the 15.4% chance, is that footyforecaster model by any chance? I have chatted to that guy on email a bit, definitely knows his stuff and from the years I've been looking at it is a very solid model.
It does specialise in predicting margins based on team ratings, and so the % chance of winning is always going to be off a bit I think, as its derived from the predicted margin.
Just out interest what exactly is a betting model? How do people come with these simulated models?
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Lilfatbum gave sando 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
