[Rugby21]

Easy Europa league money tonight like I thought has paid for all my nrl and challenge cup bets.

Huge game on Saturday, the challenge cup final, I'll be heading down to wembley tomorrow and can't wait!! I fully expect us to keep Wigan inside the +10 handicap and also win the game at 5/2. Also look at the under on the points as rain is expected and we are a big defensive side anyway.

Also going with cowboys -4 on Saturday. I think they will win their final 3 games and get into the play offs. Thurston a running things lately and can't see Newcastle stopping the cowboys.

[sando]

I thought I heard Milford was out for Reece robinson?

Nope, Reece is back at fullback (where he should be) and Milford slots into 5/8 for Campo. No Fensom will really hurt the Raiders. Guy makes 50 tackles a game, and with Manly it never ends - there is always a Tafua, Matai, Horo, some big Islander running at the defensive line, Fenson is the one who covers up so many of the Raiders defensive weaknesses. No Wighton, Lee, Ferguson in the back line, Robinson bought in and out every week, the team is a mess. Manly at full strength, rock solid from 1-7, as good or better even than the Roosters back line.

[sando]

Rugby - ITM Cup

Wellington @ Taranaki

Taranaki a young team, missing several 1st 15's (James, Barrett, King, J. Marshall) and (Chiefs captain) Clarke gone. Wellington beastly forward pack sprinkled with AB's, they genuinely believe they can beat Canterbury this year and win the cup. Best forward pack in the comp, should run right over the top of Taranaki who showed very little against Canterbury.
1.5* Wellington -8.5 ($1.93 Luxbet)

[Rugby21]

Just out of interest is the challenge cup final shown in aus and will any of you be watching?

[sando]

Just out of interest is the challenge cup final shown in aus and will any of you be watching?

I will. I watch everything. EuroSports (Foxtel) Live - 2330 AEST. Probably make a small play based on your advice. Cheers.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

One of the biggest reasons the Raiders were playing shit was the issues many senior players had with the coach.
It has been stated that some approached the board saying they could not play under Furner any more.

I fully expect blokes like Shillington to step up in this game and I see it as a danger game for Manly.

I was looking to play the Raiders but I had this line at +10.5

Nevertheless, I have a feeling that the Raiders come out and give it a shake as it is do or die for them to make the semis with their poor points differential - they need to win every game from here on in.

[trigga50]

Does anyone know what the weather has been like in Melbourne over the last 24 hours? Showers are forecast tonight at the MCG. West Coast and Collingwood's last 4 games against each other at the MCG have been pretty low scoring and have not come near the current posted game total of 179.5. Im leaning towards taking the under

[OZnBa Fan]

Does anyone know what the weather has been like in Melbourne over the last 24 hours? Showers are forecast tonight at the MCG. West Coast and Collingwood's last 4 games against each other at the MCG have been pretty low scoring and have not come near the current posted game total of 179.5. Im leaning towards taking the under

Wet wet wet and wet

[trigga50]

That makes me pretty confident then. If Collingwood get out to a fast start, West Coast may just give up, and Collingwood should slow it down the rest of the way. What do you think about the Under here Oz? I think I have been burnt on almost every Friday night total I have played this season.

This may seem odd as well but I really like Melbourne this week. Adelaide will be wanting to win, but Melbourne have a bit of experience coming back into the side this week with Dawes, Rodan and Frawley coming back. I think Rodan has announced retirement after this season? Lets not forget that Neil Craig is pretty familiar with both the Crows players and AAMI stadium as a whole. He is also gunning for the permanent coaching position at Melbourne next year so will be looking for a strong performance out of his players. I think the line of 60 points on the Crows is a tough ask in a game which has little meaning. Any thoughts on this one?

[OZnBa Fan]

That makes me pretty confident then. If Collingwood get out to a fast start, West Coast may just give up, and Collingwood should slow it down the rest of the way. What do you think about the Under here Oz? I think I have been burnt on almost every Friday night total I have played this season.

The total seems pretty good for me here mate. We saw last week that weather doesn't really matter at the g for team to put the points on. I'm on west coast 1st half line for 2units. I have collingwood in the same postion as they were in when they played Adelaide on a Friday night a little while ago. I think tonight is the night when ever1 expects collingwood to win and win well but I see the pies showing up tonight as that inconsistent side through out the game leaving the eagles at the + very good value.

I just had a look on the radar and there is nothing behind this rain atm but it has been wet and cold over the last 24 hours.

[sando]

AFL

Probably some total's later. Was pretty keen on West Coast/Collingwood under 180 tonight, but can't quite pull the trigger. More worried about West Coast than the Pies in regards to an under, they are such an offensively focused team, and they leak goals like a champ. So much for their vaunted "forward press" of only 2 seasons ago. Still debating this one and working on other totals.

Adelaide v Melbourne
The D's with their strongest line-up of the season. Huge in's strengthening the D's across the board, with the Toumpas and Rodan it the midfield, defensive general Frawley at FB, and Dawes, Pederson and rising star nomination Viney in the forward line (back last week). Actually the D's forward line looks particularly good this week, with big man Dawes at FF, young Viney (a star in the making), Sylvia, Pederson and of course Jack Watts, with Howe and the Toumpas rotating through. Next year when they get Mitch Clarke back they will actually have a gun forward line, the problem is the rest of the team blow's, especially the midfield. How ugly it would be if you took Nathan Jones out of the engine room...? The Crows of course a superior team however nothing left to play for this year other than pride. Raining all day here in Adelaide. It's expected to be a nice day tomorrow, however the ground will still probably be wet, poor drainage at Aami, game could be messy. Regardless I can see the Crows winning by 30-50, don't think they will have it all their own way.
1.5* Melbourne +64.5 ($1.93 Bet365)

Geelong v Sydney
1* Geelong to win by 1-39 ($2.25 Sportsbet)

Carlton v Essendon
1* Essendon to win by 1-39 ($3.85 Bet365)
Probably one of the only punter's in Australia on the 'Dons - good, just how I like it. Big in's (Ryder, Hurley, Myers). Hurley's inclusion makes Crameri so much more valuable, a really good 1-2 punch together. Taking the field this week will probably be so welcoming for the Bombers, like an escape to put all this god damn crap behind them (at least for a few hours) and just do what they are supposed to do. Massive over reaction in the betting markets make Carlton a terrible play in my humble opinion. What a bizzare game this AFL - where the way teams are viewed can change extraordinarily from week to week. Heppell is a massive out for the dons and Kreuzer is a big in for the Blues, however have people forgotten to actually look at the team lists? Yes the Bombers are in terrible form, however they still have a superior playing list to Carlton - cannot even be argued. If the Bombers win it will surely be by less than 40, so to get $3.85 on what is essentially a m/l bet to me is outstanding value - as good as it gets in a two horse race.

St Kilda v Gold Coast
1* Gold Coast to win by 1-39 ($2.55 Luxbet)

North Melbourne v Hawthorn
1* North 1st Half +10.5 ($1.91 Sportingbet)
1* North 1st Half m/l ($2.80 Luxbet)
Revenge? Can comfortably go with the Hawks for at least the 1st half and will be surprised if they aren't leading at half time to be honest. Oh yeah and the Roos are just machines at Etihad, especially early on...

[OZnBa Fan]

AFL

Probably some total's later. Was pretty keen on West Coast/Collingwood under 180 tonight, but can't quite pull the trigger. More worried about West Coast than the Pies in regards to an under, they are such an offensively focused team, and they leak goals like a champ. So much for their vaunted "forward press" of only 2 seasons ago. Still debating this one and working on other totals.

Adelaide v Melbourne
The D's with their strongest line-up of the season. Huge in's strengthening the D's across the board, with the Toumpas and Rodan it the midfield, defensive general Frawley at FB, and Dawes, Pederson and rising star nomination Viney in the forward line (back last week). Actually the D's forward line looks particularly good this week, with big man Dawes at FF, young Viney (a star in the making), Sylvia, Pederson and of course Jack Watts, with Howe and the Toumpas rotating through. Next year when they get Mitch Clarke back they will actually have a gun forward line, the problem is the rest of the team blow's, especially the midfield. How ugly it would be if you took Nathan Jones out of the engine room...? The Crows of course a superior team however nothing left to play for this year other than pride. Raining all day here in Adelaide. It's expected to be a nice day tomorrow, however the ground will still probably be wet, poor drainage at Aami, game could be messy. Regardless I can see the Crows winning by 30-50, don't think they will have it all their own way.
1.5* Melbourne +64.5 ($1.93 Bet365)

Geelong v Sydney
1* Geelong to win by 1-39 ($2.25 Sportsbet)

Carlton v Essendon
1* Essendon to win by 1-39 ($3.85 Bet365)
Probably one of the only punter's in Australia on the 'Dons - good, just how I like it. Big in's (Ryder, Hurley, Myers). Hurley's inclusion makes Crameri so much more valuable, a really good 1-2 punch together. Taking the field this week will probably be so welcoming for the Bombers, like an escape to put all this god damn crap behind them (at least for a few hours) and just do what they are supposed to do. Massive over reaction in the betting markets make Carlton a terrible play in my humble opinion. What a bizzare game this AFL - where the way teams are viewed can change extraordinarily from week to week. Heppell is a massive out for the dons and Kreuzer is a big in for the Blues, however have people forgotten to actually look at the team lists? Yes the Bombers are in terrible form, however they still have a superior playing list to Carlton - cannot even be argued. If the Bombers win it will surely be by less than 40, so to get $3.85 on what is essentially a m/l bet to me is outstanding value - as good as it gets in a two horse race.

St Kilda v Gold Coast
1* Gold Coast to win by 1-39 ($2.55 Luxbet)

North Melbourne v Hawthorn
1* North 1st Half +10.5 ($1.91 Sportingbet)
1* North 1st Half m/l ($2.80 Luxbet)
Revenge? Can comfortably go with the Hawks for at least the 1st half and will be surprised if they aren't leading at half time to be honest.

Some interesting plays mate. In regards to the bombers play when u have lost your last 4 games by a total of 240+ points I just simply can't see a team just flick a switch and do a massive 360 and turn things around in 1 game. In there first 16 games they were avg 100 pts for and only 81ish against, in there last 4 weeks they avg 69pts for and something like 127 against??? In my opinion you can't turn things around 1 game.

I actually like hawks to get the job done from start to finish, hawks will no this is a a danger game and will come to play from the very first bounce. I actually didn't think north were that good last week against essendon, essendon made them look good. North haven't got a match up for buddy as scotty Thompson is out for the year, hawks fwd line could go mental with the amount of depth they have. And obviously swallow out is a big loss as it puts more pressure on the likes of zieball, bastinac, cunnington etc

Good luck mate

[trigga50]

AFL

Probably some total's later. Was pretty keen on West Coast/Collingwood under 180 tonight, but can't quite pull the trigger. More worried about West Coast than the Pies in regards to an under, they are such an offensively focused team, and they leak goals like a champ. So much for their vaunted "forward press" of only 2 seasons ago. Still debating this one and working on other totals.

Now out to 182.5 at Bet365. Was at 179.5 earlier this morning

[sando]

OznBa - You may be right however my plays are already locked in. We'll know soon enough.

AFL

Adding...

Total has moved up further. Happy with it at 184.5 for a small play.

West Coast @ Collingwood
1.1* Under 184.5 ($1.91 Bet365)

[Gee]

I think these unders are pretty hard to bet when one of the teams is playing for nothing. You are much less likely to see a defensive game.

Statistically, I like the play. Eagles are ranked 15th on inside 50s this year and their efficiency hasn't been great. The way the Pies have defended of late (ignore Hawks game) you wouldn't think the Eagles wouldn't put many points up.

Against that, Pies need to beat Eagles by as much as Tigers vs GWS for them to really stay in the race for 5th spot. That being said, 5th or 6th makes little/no difference... You would probably rather finish 6th and play essendon than 5th and play carlton or port. (I'm assuming Pies win, but just thinking about whether they are really going to play for percentage)

Too many variables for me. I'm not going to play this game, but GL whatever you do play!

edit: saw the posted play after i clicked submit on this. Good luck on that under!

[brumbies]

Anyway I'm well aware of the whole “game after the coach got sacked” angle as well

do you have stats on how teams fare ATS after their coach got sacked?

[Donkey]

in afl it was 15-2 ats before lions vs giants game

[benrama]

Agreed - ATS covers after a coach sacking are on of the strongest situational angles you can get, combined with home underdogs of more than a try - seems like a good play on Raiders.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Agreed - ATS covers after a coach sacking are on of the strongest situational angles you can get, combined with home underdogs of more than a try - seems like a good play on Raiders.

If Fergo plays I like the Raiders in this spot, I know the team hate him but he's their best player and has never underperformed on the field despite the off field dramas.

I can see where sando is coming from but I'm not as sure Manly will be on as he is.

Lean Raiders, making a play if Fergo turns up.

[Gee]

I'm pretty sure 15-2 is very wrong for AFL.

It would be nice for a site or a stat or something to back it up, rather than a bare statement that isn't supported by the facts.

http://footystats.freeservers.com/Coaches/Sacked.html

Of the coaches replaced mid-season, the ATS and win/loss record is fairly even over the last 5 years.

I personally rarely waste my time trying to guess how a team is going to respond to a coach sacking.

I'm pretty sure North didn't cover in 2010 when Laidley was sacked. Lost by 22 points to Bulldogs. (although they may have covered)

Port certainly didn't cover when Williams was sacked in 2010 - lost by 47 points to Richmond.

Melbourne lost by 76 points after Dean Bailey was sacked.

Port lost by 72 points after Primus was sacked.

[s2230011]

Other factors for that game include the Raiders terrible run with injuries, half the players want out and Manly will need to bounce back after making a fuss after their last loss.
Can't see how Manly won't be switched.
Think this game has more than the average drama attached to it.

[s2230011]

Looks like Manly will be missing a few players .. B Stewart and mayb others

[ExodusNZ]

Anyone liking Bulldogs +8.5 tonight ?

Some things ive noticed:

They are 8 of 10 ATS (away)
12/21 in total (ATS)

Rabbits are 5 of 10 ATS (home)
11 of 20 + one push in total (ATS)

[s2230011]

I like the Dogs, think Souths are down a couple of forwards. Big game last week, possible let down for them too.
Home and away means nothing for this game both play out of the same ground

[Tim Gerry Mander]

My line is at 6 for the dogs v rabbits
just worried about the dogs' penchant for letting in cheap points this season.
The next few games will show how good a coach Hasler is.
Canberra's defence was terrible last week, something the Rabbits are much better at.

[trigga50]

FYI for anyone looking at getting on Melbourne Storm, line is now up to -28.5. Ive found a good value spot on Centrebet in its 'Exact winning margin market' for 30 or more for $2.10. I figured it's pretty good value over taking -28.5 for $1.91

[angelo63]

Kasiano and Eastwood missing from the Dogs pack against a Rabbitohs pack that matched it with the brutal Manly forwards looks a mismatch, Bench with George Burgess V T Williams another mismatch, Luke v Ennis is a no contest whilst GI v Morris is also a mismatch, they are only player matchups but the Rabbitohs are in form whilst the Dogs are not the same team as last year by a long stretch. The early line on Tuesday of 6 was snapped up quickly and now its out to 8.5 which is pretty close to right on the mark.
There even was 1.60 on the ML for rabbits early as well and that moved quick.
Im having a small multi of rabbits ML into Panthers +2. should be a good night of footy
Good luck guys

[ExodusNZ]

Think im going to pass on the game now. But liking the +10.5

[s2230011]

Hasn't GI become a serial whinger

[trigga50]

looking good on the under in collingwood and westcoast. Game has slowed right down since 1st quarter.

[Cubanpete]

Like any wnba tomorrow Trigga?

[sando]

1.5* Wellington -8.5 ($1.93 Luxbet)

West Coast @ Collingwood
1.1* Under 184.5 ($1.91 Bet365)

Great start to the w/e and also to the ITM cup season. Had 2 wagers for 2 wins so far (posted a play yesterday in the ITM cup thread as well). Hopefully me and Davop can work together and crush this season.

[trigga50]

Like any wnba tomorrow Trigga?

Ive had a good look at the games, but don't really like anything (surprising seeing as there are 4 games). Ive gone pretty cold lately in WNBA so Im waiting on a decent play to come up. Im focussing on AFL a bit more this weekend.

[OZnBa Fan]

Ive had a good look at the games, but don't really like anything (surprising seeing as there are 4 games). Ive gone pretty cold lately in WNBA so Im waiting on a decent play to come up. Im focussing on AFL a bit more this weekend.

im takin SA + and phx game under tomorrow mate

[sando]

Adding…

NRL

Warriors @ Titans
2* Warriors -1.5 ($1.95 Pinnacle)

AFL
Hawthorn @ North Melbourne
1.1* Over 203.5 ($1.88 Sportsbet)
Richmond @ GWS
1.1 Under 200.5 ($1.88 Sportsbet)