[angelo63]

i like wellington a lot tonight sando, very strong side.

i like this multi welli/hawkes bay/northland +8.5/abs

Davonpz, your niche is certainly with the ITM, Wellington are winning quite easily, hope to see you and your thoughts on all the ITM this season.

[davopnz]

Davonpz, your niche is certainly with the ITM, Wellington are winning quite easily, hope to see you and your thoughts on all the ITM this season.

just the start i needed! i'll be here all season I think all the overs are worth a unit this weekend bar the shield match(waikato vs northland) I really like Northland +8.5 in that one, just need to see the team sheet first.

[Shazzadude]

I like Northland +8.5 as well. I've being tracking Waikato's pre-season performance and player movements, and it seems to me to be the weakest Waikato I can recall ever being fielded. Waikato lost 31-17 to Taranaki last week in pre-season, drew against North Harbour and struggle to put away East Coast until around the 60th minute in the shield challenge.

Caucau not playing disappointed me though. I also think Taranaki +13.5 is great value if you can still get it, Canterbury have a significant number of outs this week, and Taranaki looked good in pre-season. ML or 1-12 for Taranaki is good value as well IMO.

[the tross]

Cheers davo. Been hanging out for your itm knowledge.

[trigga50]

Hey boys, at work so don't have much time to post write up

I like the over today in Indiana and Phoenix game

although Indiana games have been under city lately, the books have adjusted game totals lower and lower to compensate for this. With Bonner and Griner back for Phoenix they have all their offensive weapons back in action. Indiana score better at home, and should get plenty of opportunities against the worst defensive team in the league. I know on paper this play looks bad but Ive got this game at 153 points. Hope Im not wrong.

OVER 146 @1.91 X 2.5 UNITS to win 2.27 UNITS

This would be my worst play of the season so far. Not only did i miss the injuries that Indiana had but I also thought for some stupid reason that this game was in Indiana. Sorry if anyone tailed

[brettels]

Does Sando post anymore?

[Shazzadude]

Does Sando post anymore?

He updated his record on the previous page.

[MrXYZ]

We've seen Roosters bury teams by 40 points but -24.5 against the Tigers is unplayable, especially on MNF. I would never sit through a game sweating out 4 converted tries to cash a play, regardless of what the stats said.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Lote is back in the team and Anasta up against his old club.

[brettels]

He updated his record on the previous page.

I knew after i posted that, that this would probably be the response i would get. haha

I refuse to go back a page, i just want to open on the current page and see a sando post, but i never see it. It's like a weird little game for me now.

[Cornelius]

-24.5 thats 4 converted tries + another score ! Damn i havent got that type of balls to lay that much in a NRL game..

[shevabets]

This would be my worst play of the season so far. Not only did i miss the injuries that Indiana had but I also thought for some stupid reason that this game was in Indiana. Sorry if anyone tailed

You screw up once every couple of months - that's not too bad. Almost every time I make a first half wager this season, I feel like a complete loser

Not sure why but I thought this was funny as hell))

[Cornelius]

Everybody makes mistakes trigga!

[bfour]

Hey Sando, what's your thoughts on SweetJones55 Finals Prediction? http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...interview.html

[micase]

Lote is back in the team and Anasta up against his old club.

Anasta should have retired 2 years ago and that is being generous, unless they plan on scoring all their points through drop goals I think he will be a non factor once again.

[easysaid]

Hey guys, been a while since ive posted anything on this site but nevertheless im back with a few rugby picks for the weekend. I firgured this is the best place to lay them out saying as this thread is full of guys that follow rugby union.

anyway here they are -

Australia +5.5 over New Zealand for 3 UNITS & Australia 1-12 for 1 UNIT
Game total under projected for 3 UNITS

You heard me, im taking aussie in the most anticipated game of the weekend.. why you may ask well every team that plays the ab's in a three match series always seem to put out there best performance first look at france and ireland they both got within a try of topping the boys in black on their first game of the tour, secondly you've all heard of it but it definitely is +EV if you bet with this mindset. Yup thats right im talking about the "new coach theory", James O'Connor/Kurtley Beale and Quade Cooper have no excuses come saturday and we all know how lethal they can be in the right enviroment, not dragging on for too long i come to my final point which sealed this pick, which is ofcourse because our very own "rugby magician" is out for the first match, DC is not only a great player but his maturity and leadership put the AB's backline on a different ballpark compared to say a Cruden or Barret backline. I know this will be a very tight game ultimately being decided by a try or less.

ITM Cup -

Im not playing much this weekend saying as its the first outing for the teams, but i have seen a few lines that standout

Southland -3.5 over Tasman - 2 UNITS

Canterbury v Taranaki - game total over projected for 3 UNITS

[Shazzadude]

Yep, I think Australia +5.5 is the right side of the coin. I won't be playing it though, but I am looking at All Blacks 1-12 at this point.

[davopnz]

I agree with the Aussie play but you do really O'Connor is on the wing, Beale is injured and Cooper is on the bench so those 3 players are pretty much irrelevant in this game(well JOC is playing in his right position, he will go good)

This is my analysis on the game:

I am leaning heavily towards the wallabies, with no Messam the AB's pack barely has an advantage.


The front rows are both mud.


Slight advantage to the AB's in the locks.


Slight advantage in the Loose but Hooper and Mowen are both excellent players.


Genia>>>Smith by a mile.


Cruden>Toomua but I reckon Toomua will go good.


The rest of the backs are pretty even but I give an edge to the wallabies, they have kickers at 10/11/12/15.


The all blacks only have a kicker at 10/15 and only ONE goal kicker in Cruden who has been AWFUL.


This game spells trouble for our men in black.

[RedDevil89]

The more I look at it the more I'm leaning towards parramatta +14.5! They have been one the better teams ATS as underdogs this season! The Broncos whilst having a mathematical chance at a finals spot are only just winning games! Hodges is out for the season and it seems he is to them what Hayne is to the Eels! Hayne is playing at 5/8 again, even though its not his full time position it means more time on the ball and that is always a good thing for parra! What do you guys think? Sando any plays for you this weekend?

[sando]

AFL

Hawthorn v Collingwood
1.1* Under 188.5 ($1.91 Bet365)

Brisbane v GWS
1.5* Under 193.5 ($1.91 Bet365)

Richmond v Carlton
2* Richmond 1st Half -10.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet)
1.5* Richmond -21.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet)
1* Richmond 40+ ($2.95 Centrebet)

Port Adelaide v Gold Coast
2* Port-Port-Port-Port (lead end every quarter) ($1.90 Centrebet)
1.1* Port -27.5 ($1.91 Centrebet)

West Coast v Geelong
1.1* West Coast 1st quarter m/l ($2.20 Centrebet)
1.5* West Coast +14.5 ($1.92 Luxbet)

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide
1.5* Western Bulldogs (to win by) 1-39 ($2.70 Sportsbet)

NRL

Souths @ Manly
1.5* Under 38 ($1.90 Luxbet)

Cowboys v Titans
1.1* Cowboys -9.5 ($1.92 Sportsbet)

Roosters @ Wests Tigers
3* Roosters Over 6.5 try's ($1.89 Sportsbet)

[davopnz]

Not betting on ITM Cup yet sando?

[burkestar]

Lote is back in the team and Anasta up against his old club.

C'mon mate your too sharp to be one of those gumbys that actually rate anasta, dude has been one of the perennial overrated players his entire career, the form of him and benji this season is some of the worst i've ever seen...benji has a shocker every single week and anasta has been a mediocore forward playing 5/8 his entire career....I'm a sharks fan and i could honestly say that I would not play either of them in our reserve grade team let alone nrl

now thats not to say roosters -24.5 is the smart play but no way am i laying money on the tigers without their best prop woods, their only weapon in farah, if farah is back than it could be good but with the way roosters are going anything could happen

[Tim Gerry Mander]

The more I look at it the more I'm leaning towards parramatta +14.5! They have been one the better teams ATS as underdogs this season! The Broncos whilst having a mathematical chance at a finals spot are only just winning games! Hodges is out for the season and it seems he is to them what Hayne is to the Eels! Hayne is playing at 5/8 again, even though its not his full time position it means more time on the ball and that is always a good thing for parra! What do you guys think? Sando any plays for you this weekend?

XYZ, Angelo and myself are all on the Eels.

Do note that their away form has been SHOCKING, their ATS record as underdogs has only been good when playing at Parramatta Stadium.

Having said that, I think that Hayne will be better for the run and his combination with Mullaney will be even better this week.

Small play, but that kind of start is being a little generous to the Broncos.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

C'mon mate your too sharp to be one of those gumbys that actually rate anasta, dude has been one of the perennial overrated players his entire career, the form of him and benji this season is some of the worst i've ever seen...benji has a shocker every single week and anasta has been a mediocore forward playing 5/8 his entire career....I'm a sharks fan and i could honestly say that I would not play either of them in our reserve grade team let alone nrl

now thats not to say roosters -24.5 is the smart play but no way am i laying money on the tigers without their best prop woods, their only weapon in farah, if farah is back than it could be good but with the way roosters are going anything could happen

I don't rate him at all - he played his best football at Canterbury and that was nearly 10 years ago.
He has been awful this year and his combination with Marshall even worse.
The Roosters recruitment manager should be given a pay rise for getting rid of him and the Tigers recruitment manager should be shot.

I raised the point that because he is playing against his previous club, he is capable of lifting his game as a one-off.

Totally forgot about Farah too - thanks for reminding me.

[rohan22no]

Thanks again Sando...good luck all.

Wow @ O6.5 tries for Roosters...

[Steve_Gennison]

Sando, I vaguely recall you giving stats saying its profitable to back the over on high game total lines. The 2 afl games you've picked seem higher than avg but you're taking the under. Do you have time to share your thoughts on this?

[Rugby21]

Big play for me this morning is manly straight win at 1.83 (coral) souths are a shadow of the side of 6 weeks ago and manly are on fire I have this one at manly -4 or 6. Very confident play.

also, super league play for tonight is leeds -18 vs hull kr, hull kr are decimated with injuries and won't be able to contain a leeds side who are on a winning run since the first week of July.

[s2230011]

Watmough in

[s2230011]

Playing 3 player props I really liked:
Kite o 75.5, loved the play but bet on it before watmough news.
Reed o 90.5, also great play with hodges out and his been marked by one of the worst defenders around, Ben Roberts
Merritt u 100.5, lazy player up against the good defensive side of manly's Lyon and Williams

[s2230011]

Merritt and Reed cashed but bloody Kite was in 52 m after 20 mins, but he was off for ages and when he got back on Souths had all the ball, oh well

[davopnz]

i won on souths but boy did the refs help them, that matai disallowed try was so a try

[lordkai35]

refs had money on souths, ridiculous bias in penalties then the denied tries, every manly try was video reffed...lets kill it tomorrow people

[sando]

Not betting on ITM Cup yet sando?

Not until week 2 or 3. Nice call on Wellington, however I expected more from Counties.

Thanks again Sando...good luck all.

Wow @ O6.5 tries for Roosters...

Makes more sense than playing Roosters team total at 36.5. This can't cash without the Roosters scoring 7 try's anyway, however if they didn't convert 5 of those 7 try's it still wouldn't cash. After much deliberation this is my preferred option from game total, team total and team try's. I'm expecting the Roosters to average a try every 9-11 minutes with 8 try's being the desired target.

Sando, I vaguely recall you giving stats saying its profitable to back the over on high game total lines. The 2 afl games you've picked seem higher than avg but you're taking the under. Do you have time to share your thoughts on this?

Those aren't high totals. The standard range for AFL total's is 170-200. Anything outside this range could be considered a high or low total. The only thing I have tested the high over's/low under's theory on is NBA with outstanding results, although I do believe it would be effective in AFL as well.

[trigga50]

WNBA +17.18

Gents its time for another Saturday sweep! Ive been bleeding units this week, made a few bad calls. With a 4 game card today I have strong leans on 2 of the games.

Washington @ NY
Ok so these teams have played twice this season so far. Both times I have taken washington as dogs and both times Ive lost. So guess what? Im taking Washington again. Both games Washington played better and had some unlucky losses. The books have given Washington a 3 point edge and set the game total at a relatively low 151.5?

I don't get the total at all on this one. The previous two games have hit 166 and 181, neither teams currently have any injury woes?
Both sides have a recent record in Overs

Washington has gone over in 6 of its last 7 games on the road.
NY has gone over in 4 of its last 5 games.
Washington give up 82.9 points on the road


Washington +3 @$1.91 X 2 UNITS to win 1.82
OVER 151.5 @1.91 X3.5 UNITS to win 3.18

Tulsa @ Minnesota
Like Minny here, Tulsa have two key players doubtful to take the court today (Glory Johnson and Riquna Williams) Tulsa will have very little offence if these two don't take the court tonight. Minnesota should get up into the 90 point mark this game, and I don't see Tulsa getting up over 70. I know 15 points is a big line to cover but Minnesota have done it plenty of times this season against better teams.

Minnesota -15 @$1.91 X 2 UNITS to win 1.82 UNITS


TEASER PARLAY (bet365)
Washington @ NY OVER 147.5
Washington +5.5
Minnesota -11.5

1 UNIT @ $3.73 to win 2.73

[aussieH]

How's the weather in Adelaide. Looks like you had plenty of rain