[vasilli07]

Any thoughts about the NRL game today?

[benrama]

S22 - Graham under 140.5 metres is the only prop that I like so far, I think with Kasiano and a full forward pack to share the load, and with Titans having a few decent bigs themselves this has some value.

Anything you like?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Expect a massive game from the Bulldogs' forward pack, especially Greg Eastwood.

He came out and said the Canterbury pack had been insulted by comments made that they were "soft".

Watch the big boppers do some damage tonight - Pritchard, Kasiano, Williams and Eastwood.

[benrama]

Yea they have an intimidating pack right now, best in the comp IMO. Williams looks like he might finally be settling in as well his second man play is a big weapon, I finally I think it's clicked in his head the power of momentum :P

Williams seeing more of the ball is another reason I like the Graham prop.

[s2230011]

I honestly havent looked at any numbers today, been flat out.

You are 100% right that the load will be shared today, expecting Kasiano and Williams to get very decent minutes and Hasler gets them ready for finals footy. In saying that I am expecting the Dogs to run all over the Titans tonight.

I'll be very surprised if the Titans stick with the Dogs tonight. Like I said before I think the Titans night time record is pretty bad.

[s2230011]

Didn't get time to look at numbers but putting half a unit on a 40/20 kicked. A fair bit of wind about and both sides have injuries in their back three, but doesn't look the price changed, at least $4.

[TheMLBKing]

I honestly havent looked at any numbers today, been flat out.

You are 100% right that the load will be shared today, expecting Kasiano and Williams to get very decent minutes and Hasler gets them ready for finals footy. In saying that I am expecting the Dogs to run all over the Titans tonight.

I'll be very surprised if the Titans stick with the Dogs tonight. Like I said before I think the Titans night time record is pretty bad.

lol.

[TheMLBKing]

you know you should quit when you can't even pick a -700 winner.

[Dr.Gonzo]

you know you should quit when you can't even pick a -700 winner.

This kind of stuff happens all the time in the NRL, no such thing as a moral.

[s2230011]

When did I make a play on the dogs?
Must be a sad life when your only contribution to society would be highlighting ppl's misjudgements.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Yea they have an intimidating pack right now, best in the comp IMO. Williams looks like he might finally be settling in as well his second man play is a big weapon, I finally I think it's clicked in his head the power of momentum :P

Williams seeing more of the ball is another reason I like the Graham prop.

Kasiano injury didn't help, but they looked terrible tonight.
So much for making a statement,
Williams went back to his poor form, how many times did he just catch and pass instead of running and drawing defenders?
I'm surprised Hasler hasn't pulled his hair out yet.....

With a top 4 berth in sight and playing at home against a depleted Titans team, I expected better.
I'm calling curtains on them after that effort.
They have two tough games up next (Raiders and Rabbitohs) and are now in danger of dropping out of the 8.

I'd have the Chooks and Storm as clear faves to win the comp.

Next Manly and the Rabbitohs.

No one else has any hope of making an impact in the semis - those teams are just a class above.



Rohan, I'm sure you played the Titans ML tonight - congrats on another big win for you.

[benrama]

you know you should quit when you can't even pick a -700 winner.

He didn't say he backed them at -700 you mor.on

In other news, I'm piss.ed that Graham didn't start, came on after less than 10 mins and ruined my prop bet.

[s2230011]

Does he have to start for bet to stand??

[Dr.Gonzo]

New Zealand could still do something if they win their final 4 games, I have given them the win of each game in a vacuum but they'll probably screw up.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

New Zealand could still do something if they win their final 4 games, I have given them the win of each game in a vacuum but they'll probably screw up.

They concede too many soft tries and Hurrell is a great attacking weapon but a massive liability in defence and they already have one of those in Vatuvei.

The best teams grind others into the ground and suffocate the opposition in defence - Those middle of the table teams can't defend back to back sets and frustrate opponents. It's what the Roosters have perfected this season. They don't mind giving away penalties as they know their line is impregnable.

[benrama]

Does he have to start for bet to stand??

At Sportsbet - yep. Weird because he's started pretty much every other game he's been in, and he came on super early. Even with Kasiano going off he only got 100 metres in nearly a full game of play - anyways, not much I can do about it!

Also strange was Sportsbet offering a prop on Williams when everyone knew he was starting on the bench

[Dr.Gonzo]

They concede too many soft tries and Hurrell is a great attacking weapon but a massive liability in defence and they already have one of those in Vatuvei.

The best teams grind others into the ground and suffocate the opposition in defence - Those middle of the table teams can't defend back to back sets and frustrate opponents. It's what the Roosters have perfected this season. They don't mind giving away penalties as they know their line is impregnable.

New Zealand can beat Souths and Melbourne in a finals game, biggest problem is getting there. No team is going to fit your criteria and be 50/1.

[Dr.Gonzo]

At Sportsbet - yep. Weird because he's started pretty much every other game he's been in, and he came on super early. Even with Kasiano going off he only got 100 metres in nearly a full game of play - anyways, not much I can do about it!

Also strange was Sportsbet offering a prop on Williams when everyone knew he was starting on the bench

Graham usually comes off the bench, best place to start for a prop who plays long minutes.

[benrama]

Kasiano injury didn't help, but they looked terrible tonight.
So much for making a statement,
Williams went back to his poor form, how many times did he just catch and pass instead of running and drawing defenders?
I'm surprised Hasler hasn't pulled his hair out yet.....

With a top 4 berth in sight and playing at home against a depleted Titans team, I expected better.
I'm calling curtains on them after that effort.
They have two tough games up next (Raiders and Rabbitohs) and are now in danger of dropping out of the 8.

I'd have the Chooks and Storm as clear faves to win the comp.

Next Manly and the Rabbitohs.

No one else has any hope of making an impact in the semis - those teams are just a class above.

Rohan, I'm sure you played the Titans ML tonight - congrats on another big win for you.

Yea pretty disappointing effort alright, they just had the wrong attitude tonight, I think they thought they could just turn up and win.

They still looked far more attacking than the Titans, just turned the ball over far too many times.

Williams I think they are starting to actually use OK, as a second or third man player who runs onto the ball. That's been his problem for a long time now, not getting enough of a run up, and giving him a chance to fend off and offload. With the second and third man plays it kind of solves this problem for him. He really should have scored twice in this game from this strategy - and then it's a different game.

Assuming Kasiano isn't seriously injured I wouldn't rule the doggies out just yet, if they can get Barba back for first week of finals I think no-one wants to meet them.

But I pretty much agree with you on who the favourites are at this stage.

[benrama]

Graham usually comes off the bench, best place to start for a prop who plays long minutes.

Huh? Graham has been consistently starting every game. Hasler just threw a curve ball for this one. Playing long minutes is part of being a professional, and it's usually the other way around, start, play hard and strong and then get subbed.

[TheMLBKing]

When did I make a play on the dogs?
Must be a sad life when your only contribution to society would be highlighting ppl's misjudgements.

lol, post all your thoughts/expectations to bait poor lurkers into taking the dogs' side, claim it's all good because you didn't "make a play"

Classic SBR.

[Grunch]

lol, post all your thoughts/expectations to bait poor lurkers into taking the dogs' side, claim it's all good because you didn't "make a play"

Classic SBR.

Another parlay gone bad I see. Sad...

[Tim Gerry Mander]

lol, post all your thoughts/expectations to bait poor lurkers into taking the dogs' side, claim it's all good because you didn't "make a play"

Classic SBR.

Just worry about giving us some MLB winners - otherwise change your name to "The Wayne King"

[trigga50]

WNBA +19.68

Dropped a unit today in WNBA. Man that Chicago and Minnesota game was a tough loss. Did anyone see the game? I was working all day. So glad Washington got up and performed for their second game in a row. Atlanta was a bad pick on my behalf. Not much in terms of games over the next few days

[trigga50]

I Like the early total for Hawks VS Collingwood this Friday set at 189.5 on bet365, both teams ranked 1st and 2nd for marks inside 50. I think both teams will be wanting the win here, Collingwood have Richmond snapping at their heals and Hawks have dropped a few unexpected games and want to ensure they stay in the top 2. Game is at MCG and not Etihad for a change, MCG is generally harder to score at. Im seeing this as a slow grinding match, and after looking at Melbourne's weather for this week it definitely supports the under. We have a bit of rain during the week and windy / showers on Friday.

Fremantle and Melbourne Under also looks juicy at the moment. This game is also at the MCG being played on Sunday. Ground should still be pretty wet, Melbourne scored 40 points against Freo in round 9.

[Cornelius]

WNBA +19.68

Dropped a unit today in WNBA. Man that Chicago and Minnesota game was a tough loss. Did anyone see the game? I was working all day. So glad Washington got up and performed for their second game in a row. Atlanta was a bad pick on my behalf. Not much in terms of games over the next few days

Mystics played well in the 1st quarter and 3rd quarter. The 4th chicago just chipped away slowly and mystics couldnt score as much. I posted earlier how mystics were up 79-76 before donna D hit a 3 with 4.5 seconds left to pull it to OT and chicago totally outplayed minnesota there.

[OZnBa Fan]

I Like the early total for Hawks VS Collingwood this Friday set at 189.5 on bet365, both teams ranked 1st and 2nd for marks inside 50. I think both teams will be wanting the win here, Collingwood have Richmond snapping at their heals and Hawks have dropped a few unexpected games and want to ensure they stay in the top 2. Game is at MCG and not Etihad for a change, MCG is generally harder to score at. Im seeing this as a slow grinding match, and after looking at Melbourne's weather for this week it definitely supports the under. We have a bit of rain during the week and windy / showers on Friday.

Fremantle and Melbourne Under also looks juicy at the moment. This game is also at the MCG being played on Sunday. Ground should still be pretty wet, Melbourne scored 40 points against Freo in round 9.

I'm pretty sure the last 3-4 times hawks and pies have played they have been shootouts mate

[burkestar]

to all the baseball sharps the reds a good play tomorrow?

[rohan22no]

Theory question for Sando, TGM, benrama, TG, XYZ etc...

NRL based example -

On Wednesday when the odds come out - Friday night game is Team A vs Team B. Team A is $1.50 and Team B is $2.50.

Friday night before kickoff, is it more likely that team A's odds have shortened (to $1.40) or lengthened (to $1.60)?

Considering that all other things are equal (no injuries/weather changes/significant team news etc), please tell me your opinion on what is the most likely scenario and your reasoning.

Thanks.

[Shazzadude]

I don't think that's enough information for anyone to possibly answer. Not all teams are equal as far as their ability to attract betting money, which then influences odds for e.g., nor do we know what sort of lean the books have on a result.

[rohan22no]

I think it is enough information, and its nothing to do with a teams ability to attract betting money...NRL was only my example. "Team A" could be a favorite in any sport. Remember, just a theoretical question.

I've got my own thoughts and will share them, just want to hear others first.

[MrXYZ]

In the NRL I'd say the team A is most likely to shorten. Its just an observation but Favourites always attract most of the money as the game gets closer to kickoff. Average NRL punters like to bet 'safe.'

[benrama]

It's well known that the ATS market is much bigger than the ML market for most sports. Most of the "sharp" money goes to picking winners ATS, which means the ML can become dominated by people wanting a "safe" bet as Mr XYZ puts it or I think equally likely it goes into a multi or parlay. Especially for games like Friday night NRL which are showcase games and attract a lot of your sucker analysis from the media.

This money flow into the favourite ML means that the odds are more likely to end up with the them shortening to $1.40 IMO.

[OZnBa Fan]

anything in todays game trigga? ive had some time off lately and been crunching some numbers don't mind la -6.5?

[s2230011]

Bookies always talk about Monday nights favourite shortening if other favourites win on the weekend. That's because a heap of ppl parlay favourites.