[OZnBa Fan]

Roughead most goals 1unit $2.50 (centrebet)

With buddy out this should nearly be odds on, the only danger for mine would be gunston, reiwoldt is no threat for mine as Brian lake has always matched up well on him

Cash this sucker!!

Also had him first goal and first goal for hawks so been a good start so far to the weekend

[OZnBa Fan]

Your an ungrateful tailing twat and you should go start your own thread somewhere else. You clearly are here to tail other peoples hard work yet you blow large amounts on teasers or ML plays in upset games and want to complain and post sarcastic crap. The funny thing here tonight is you were probably on Hawthorn like the rest of us. If you don't have anything positive to contribute to this thread, Im sure everyone would appreciate it if you didn't post here again.

👍👍👍👍👍

[Cornelius]

Cash this sucker!!

Also had him first goal and first goal for hawks so been a good start so far to the weekend

Didn't touch this play but good work mate!

[aussieH]

Horrible form. A lot of Sando anger. It'll happen if you selectively blindly tail plays, when you're too stupid to look at the game yourself. For the record, I don't tail anyone, but like to read a lot of the well thought out opinions on here. A lot of guys in this thread (including the OP!) seem to know their shit.

Just look at the post history. Guy probably shouldn't be gambling. SBR attracts degens like him and books love it. Bitter failed gambler.

We don't need this shit in more sports threads. The last decent subforum on SBR and why I still hang around. Lets keep it positive. Just look around - almost every thread a winning one without fudging records (some of the rugby guys like to chase a lot, but are very open about it). Bottom line is aussie sports are beatable and there are plenty of guys on here doing it and providing good insight into games in the process. Tail or fade, but no need to rub it in here if you fade (and you'll ultimately go broke doing that). it could have been done classier - "unlucky mate. I had saints... thought despite the BBF, hawks still wouldn't care vs saints. percentage boost wasn't crucial for them and they had some big outs' would have worked.

I didn't have anything on the game, because I don't like big spreads on AFL, but Hawks should have covered that line easily.

Nice hit whoever had Roughie most goals. I thought about it, but didn't hit it because i intrinsically don't like that kind of prop. Dunno why. I think most of the time it is a sucker bet. Today obviously wasn't, because of the circs (saints can't defend tall forwards and buddy was out), but i still couldn't pull the trigger. Damn. Roughie tied with Kennedy now. Kennedy into $1.60 and Roughie into $3.20 on betfair (roughie moving around a lot though) Kennedy only kicked 2 v bombers at home last time they played and only averages 1.7 goals v Bombers over his career - Fletcher factor?. Could be a really fun race come final round! Sorry to those on Kennedy, but I'm cheering for a tight finish! Would like you guys to win, but not in a blowout!

PColeman will be interesting. I had a decent go on roughed today and actually moved the odds in a point. Hope those that were pushing Kennedy did not have a go as the odds were to short. In saying that Kennedy is still my best result so hopefully he kicks a few this weekend.

[RedDevil89]

Not laying many of units on this game because we all know what this bayern team are capable of.

An interesting stat is Borussia were the only team to take the lead in both matches vs bayern last year and they have beaten them 2 out of the last 4 drawing 1 and losing the other. Yes I think bayern could win 2+ tommorow as well but there just too short to lay the juice. From what I read goetze won't play and sweinsteiger might not play either.

Well I'm staying away from it because odds for Bayern are too juicy! I hope you cash whatever you play man for your sake and because I'm still pissed off at Bayern for stealing Thiago Alacantra from our (man utd) grasp hahah....fukers hope they have a shit year and the team falls apart for buying so many players and unsettling Dortmund by sneakily stealing gotze and trying to get lewondowski! Good luck man!

[SonSquad]

Raonic - Gulbis, pick Gulbis @ 2,20 on bet365 9/10 units

No time for a long write-up, but I really like this bet. Gulbis has looked good lately and beat Murrey last round. He is imo one of the best players in the game when he is focused and it seems like he has been lately. This season Gulbis won 73% of his tie breaks compared to Raonics 44%. Good luck

[rohan22no]

If I'm right I'm pretty sure he was the bloke that had a crack at sando last weekend about his afl picks so I think he might have been trying to rub salt in wound

Yep, MLBking has proven himself to be a wanker many times over in the last 5 pages of this thread alone, best policy is to snap ignore 100% of the time.

[marshmellow]

fiba Y U DO DIS

Win	5 Team Parlay
					Win	8/9/13 12:45am International Basketball 1003 India/Japan Under 147 -110*
					Win	8/9/13 3:00am International Basketball 1005 Jordan/Iran Over 135½ -110*
					Win	8/9/13 5:45am International Basketball 1007 China/Chinese Taipei Over 142½ -110*
					Cancelled	8/9/13 8:30am International Basketball 1009 Kazakhstan/Philippines Under 146 -110*
					Win	8/9/13 10:30am International Basketball 1011 Qatar/South Korea Under 141 -110*

[OZnBa Fan]

Well I'm staying away from it because odds for Bayern are too juicy! I hope you cash whatever you play man for your sake and because I'm still pissed off at Bayern for stealing Thiago Alacantra from our (man utd) grasp hahah....fukers hope they have a shit year and the team falls apart for buying so many players and unsettling Dortmund by sneakily stealing gotze and trying to get lewondowski! Good luck man!

I should have stuck with my orginal lean of borussia +2.5 oh well that's football for ya.... Do u follow the lower leagues of English football mate?

[OZnBa Fan]

Geelong vs Port Adelaide

wire to wire - Geelong to lead at the end of each qtr 3* $1.70 (centrebet)

No time for a write up but can tell u luxbet have this market at $1.47 get on quick I say

Saturday multi AFL

Geelong first to 25
Bulldogs +42.5
Swans win

$2.44

[hedgejob]

Good chance those games with Coleman candidates go under as goal options are narrower.

[sando]

Fiba Asia Championship

South Korea v Phillipines
2* South Korea -3.5 ($1.91 Pinnacle)
Korea getting better with every game. Completely outplayed the bigger Qatar team in the quarter-finals. Phillo's have been improving but continue to get inflated lines, simply because they are the home team.

NRL

Adding...

Roosters v Raiders
2.2* Roosters HT/FT ($1.45 Luxbet)
Was going to leave this game alone as many are bullish on the Raiders today, but sadly I know my team better than most and I have a sick feeling the season is over now for the Raiders and they will get bundled out of the 8, starting with another hiding today. The Milford situation is just another example of what's wrong behind the scenes at Canberra. Reece Robinson is getting hidden away on the wing where his talent is completely wasted. Roosters will probably cover the -13.5 comfortably and the game should be high scoring, however I'm going to play it a bit safer here, as already have a couple of units tied up on the Roosters team total over and a big Corner prop bet.

SuperCoach
2* Boyd Cordner Over 65.5 ($1.87 Luxbet)
A star on the rise. He has been named co-captian today in Mini's absence at the tender age of 21. Has been in sparkling form over the last 3 weeks since the Rooster's bye and now people are even talking about a Kangaroo's jersey. Sportsbet don't even have the balls to release a supercoach market on this kid. Luxbet has had a crack, but they have got it wrong by 5-10 points. Canberra's pack is formidable and as captain Cordner will know he has to lead by example and will be primed for a big game, especially with SBW out. He has described the honour of the captaincy as one of the greatest in his life. I'm expecting an 80 point effort today.

[Cobra Kai]

SuperCoach
2* Boyd Cordner Over 65.5 ($1.87 Luxbet)
A star on the rise. He has been named co-captian today in Mini's absence at the tender age of 21. Has been in sparkling form over the last 3 weeks since the Rooster's bye and now people are even talking about a Kangaroo's jersey. Sportsbet don't even have the balls to release a supercoach market on this kid. Luxbet has had a crack, but they have got it wrong by 5-10 points. Canberra's pack is formidable and as captain Cordner will know he has to lead by example and will be primed for a big game, especially with SBW out. He has described the honour of the captaincy as one of the greatest in his life. I'm expecting an 80 point effort today.

There doesn't seem to be a market for Boyd Cordner, maybe it's not Luxbet?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Reece Robinson has been dropped altogether mate - Jack Wighton stays on one wing and Fergo on the other.

Watch the Chooks bombard Fergo with plenty of high balls - he's a damaging runner but prone to making plenty of handling errors.

If Cordner keeps his try scoring form up, he might even hit 100 points

[TheMLBKing]

Yep, MLBking has proven himself to be a wanker many times over in the last 5 pages of this thread alone, best policy is to snap ignore 100% of the time.

was being sarcastic bro. I tail all of sando's plays now, I'm a changed man.

[rohan22no]

Hey guys, sorry if this has been asked before. Almost all of my supercoach bets are still pending from last night. Can someone point me to the site where the data is available?

[sando]

There doesn't seem to be a market for Boyd Cordner, maybe it's not Luxbet?

Wow your right.

A. Got pounded badly and they removed the market (most likely)
B. They realized their bad line set and removed the market. (maybe they even monitor this thread hahaha)

Hey guys, sorry if this has been asked before. Almost all of my supercoach bets are still pending from last night. Can someone point me to the site where the data is available?

Yeah it happens mate. Books pay AFL props fast and NRL props slow. it's just the way it is. I have so many winning tickets pending unpaid at Luxbet I had to make a fresh deposit today just to place more wagers

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/nrl

Go to Match centre and then player stats, although the results I posted last night are correct. If you tailed all I think we made about 1 unit profit.

was being sarcastic bro. I tail all of sando's plays now, I'm a changed man.

It's all good mate, just drop an MLB winner for the boys and everyone will be happy...

[TheMLBKing]

Tigers -1 tomorrow for baseball.

[rohan22no]

Thanks Sando/MLB.

Gogogo bulldogs!! Smashing it!

[OZnBa Fan]

Geelong vs Port Adelaide

wire to wire - Geelong to lead at the end of each qtr 3* $1.70 (centrebet)

No time for a write up but can tell u luxbet have this market at $1.47 get on quick I say

Cash it lads$$$$$

[rohan22no]

Cash it lads$$$$$

Great work! Well spotted!

[rohan22no]

Poor old Raiders...great call on the Roosters (unfortunately!) Sando.

[Cornelius]

hopefully roosters cover -13.5 for me. Great call on the over for roosters sando.

[rohan22no]

Sando (or anyone),
DHB has U187.5 in the Suns game, and I see you have Suns - 36.5. Is it generally a bad idea to have a team to win ATS AND also have the under? I'm not sure of the theory behind it, but it seems as though those 2 bets may cancel each other out a bit, if that makes sense. If anyone knows anything more about this, or even knows what I'm talking about I'd like to hear your thoughts

[rohan22no]

Roosters pretty much a lock now for minor prem?

[lordkai35]

Sando (or anyone),
DHB has U187.5 in the Suns game, and I see you have Suns - 36.5. Is it generally a bad idea to have a team to win ATS AND also have the under? I'm not sure of the theory behind it, but it seems as though those 2 bets may cancel each other out a bit, if that makes sense. If anyone knows anything more about this, or even knows what I'm talking about I'd like to hear your thoughts

simply means they don't expect melb demons to score many points eg if demons score 50 and suns 110, gcs will still cover line and be match ttp unders. demons have been pathetic in the scoring department ( in all departments actually) so might chance for both to win

[Dr.Gonzo]

Roosters pretty much a lock now for minor prem?

1.01

[rohan22no]

1.01

Sweet...marking it as a win in my spreadsheet...

simply means they don't expect melb demons to score many points eg if demons score 50 and suns 110, gcs will still cover line and be match ttp unders. demons have been pathetic in the scoring department ( in all departments actually) so might chance for both to win

Thanks Lordkai, good to hear your thoughts. I'm not really talking about this game in particular (altho its a good example), I'm interested in the overall theory of it

[Vinnie Paz]

I believe the general consensus/theory with those correleated parlays is you take fav+over or dog+under, on those big spreads. The "theory" is if the spread is about 30% of the total , then its much more likely that if dog covers the total stays under and vice versa with the fav. Therefore, "techniqually", betting a big spread fav and the under isn't a steady winning proposition. Feel free someone to correct me if mistaken.

[Cornelius]

not a great first quarter by the Suns!

[TheMLBKing]

wtf are the suns doing....

[Cornelius]

suns is playing terrible tonight..

Tough to watch.. GC losing to this demons team lol.

[TheMLBKing]

suns on fire now, lets see if they can cover here

[Cornelius]

nope its done haha. slim chance with 10 mins left but they just couldnt do anything. gahhh started off nicely today. 2 sad losses with GC and sydney.. Sydney is getting outplayed badly.. GC well they just played like shit lol.

[Shazzadude]

Underdogs are 6/6 on the ATS in the AFL this weekend lol.