[RedDevil89]

Hit a really nice baseball parlay today with my betpoints and added your under to it. Great call, cheers. Verlander was dealing today for the Tigers, can't believe he was -110 against the Indians. Oh yeah and congratulations on your baby.

Cheers thanks Sando! Yeah the Braves and Tigers have been at good odds (both dogs) last 2 games so been some great value, jumped on Atlanta twice at $1.98 and $2.05 last two days! Didn't touch today's games because of sweep resistance! Hopefully there will be a few plays tomorrow! I've been more selective recently especially since time has been limited and having had a losing day in a week which is pretty good for MLB.

For this weekends NRL I think the storm 1-13($3.00 sportsbet) is extremely great value! They are both great grinding teams and both going to be in contention for the grand finals this year! Sutton is out for souths and ingles is also in doubt! Melbourne have hit form which they always do around this time! I think Melbourne will win and souths will cop another loss and hit form from here on! The roosters with -13.5 I think is a little dangerous! Canberra coming off the flogging of the season, and we've seen that teams that get flogged one week seem to bounce back the following week! Rooster are also without SBW and minichiello, I think the roosters will still be too good but that's too many points for my liking! I also like the Eagles 1-12 vs Warriors! Both teams have been in some good form as of late, the Eagles have been flogging their opponents but none of those games have been against top sides, they are at full strength and we all know how good the Eagles are being one of the most consistent teams over the past 6 years! The Warriors have had a great run beating teams like Melbourne and Roosters along the way but they lost at home to sharks last weekend and they have a thing for losing two in a row! Ill take the Eagles in a tight contest being played at Bluetongue(Gosford). Agree with the Broncos, they have got it back together as of late and technically sill in contention for a finals berth, the dragons season is over, and though they seem to be doing okay and sticking with teams for the first 50min but they fall apart in the end! Without Dugan you could put them together with the shocking eels and tigers! I'm going to stay away from the Panthers game, The cowboys don't do well on the road travelling to Sydney teams. The Panthers have shown big signs of improvement this year but they concede too many points for my liking (112 in last 3 games) technically Cowboys still a chance for the finals but given how poor they have been ill be staying off this, don't know which Panthers or Cowboys side is going to turn up this weekend! The Dogs have hit form and back at full strength, they should run all over the titans at home on MNF. The line is set at 14! If it was 12 I would jump all over it but I'm still thinking if I should pull the trigger on this or not!

I'd also like to see what others think in the AFL, it's not my strong point so ill leave it up to you experts and look at tailing!

[s2230011]

Bounce Back Factor - its talked about alot, after a mauling a side bounces back the next week.

I knew the Eels line movement was coming, but not this quick, dunno if its playable. if it keeps going Tigers well end up being great value. Tigers young guys have been the ones carrying the team this year, their young wingers look good first grade material. Now their coach looks gone at end of year ... I think I will stick with player props for this one

[OZnBa Fan]

Really liking the swans line this week lads and will most likely be a 3unit play..

Probably share my thoughts tommrow

[angelo63]

Broncos(-8.5)V Dragons
Dragons
They Dragons have nothing to play for, something is wrong within the club and after reaching the pinnacle of the season by beating South’s the rest of the year will be just a procession.
Broncos are in the fight and they will be full steam for this one at home. All the big guns are playing and with Wallace and Prince on display for potential new clubs the Broncos won’t let this one get away from them,
Brisbane have won 7 of the last 8 against the Dragons.
Dugan is the only potential Dragon player that can break the line and that won’t be enough against a team fighting for a finals spot.
I agree with Benramma about the Broncos winning this one comfortably and will play the Line of
Broncos -8.5

Roosters V Raiders (+13.5)
The Raiders will no doubt be fuelled by the BBF after last week’s thrashing by the Storm. It Is quite possible the Raiders were too cocky and underestimated the Storm after all they were chasing there 13 th win in a row at home and had given the Storm two good hidings in the previous two encounters.
In the game earlier this season the Raiders were losing 16 nil at half time and came out and won 24-20 in the second half, I can see the Raiders team that played that second half being the one who starts the game on Saturday as the focus will be there, last season the Raiders suffered a 40-0 thrashing at home from the Tigers and after that sprung into action and made the finals with a long winning streak.
Ferguson is back and that is certainly a big bonus, whilst SBW is out , although I would have preferred Mini playing as RTS is a superstar in the making.
Raiders +13.5

[trigga50]

Seems like its shaping up to be a big week in NRL!

Thought Id share some early WNBA action for tomorrow as I may not get a chance to post later.

Washington VS Minnesota
These two teams met back in June with Washington pulling off the upset winning by 5. Although the scoreboard showed Washington winning Minnesota killed it in stats apart from FG%. Minnesota had 18 more shot attempts, better rebounds and less turn overs. So its no surprise that after recent form Minnesota have gone -15 point favourites for this game. I think this line is very sharp, and probably not worth playing.

The game total has come out at 159.5 which I think is a tad too low considering recent form and stats which would back the over. Ive got this game set at 167 giving us 7 points of value.

- Washington has gone over in 4 of its last 5 games
- Washington has gone over in 5 of its last 5 road games
- Washington has gone over in 5 of the last 6 games on the road vs Minnesota

- Washington Average 79.7 points on the road
- Minnesota Average 89.3 points at home
- Both teams average 69 FG attempts at home and on road
- Minnesota average 48.6FG% at home

The last time these two teams played in Washington the total was set at 157, and the over cashed with 165 points being scored.

OVER 159.5 @$1.91 X3 UNITS to win 2.73 UNITS

[Gee]

As for the AFL early lines, I like Geelong. They have been beasts at home the last 3-4 years and have won every game at Skilled comfortably. A big win would probably also give them a chance at top spot if other results go their way.

Unfuknreal. Anyone take this? I'm sure I saw it at 34.5 early in the week, now its 40.5 at some shops! I dunno why I waited. Value buried.

[sando]

Sorry boys, that Taipei game was a disaster.

[sando]

Thanks everyone for sharing your thoughts. So many sharp minds on SBR, seems crazy not to have discussions like these. Anyway I'm working on my own AFL/NRL plays now, got all the time in the world at the moment, as have been off work for 2 weeks with my busted leg. Hoping to get my own plays out tonight after teams have been announced. Going to really focusing on NRL this w/e, think there is far more "value" available on the NRL lines than AFL this week.

Cooper - The weather is supposed to be perfect for football on Sunday here in Adelaide, with 0% chance of precipitation predicted. It definitely feels like it is going to be a nice w/e. Beautiful day today, however the clouds are starting to move in now for perhaps a light shower?

[OZnBa Fan]

Sorry boys, that Taipei game was a disaster.

No need to be sorry around here

[Coopertrooper]

The weather is supposed to be perfect for football on Sunday here in Adelaide, with 0% chance of precipitation predicted. It definitely feels like it is going to be a nice w/e. Beautiful day today, however the clouds are starting to move in now for perhaps a light shower?

Yeah, I was trying to get a read from the BOM's forecasts but they were full of 'possible' showers over the weekend for Adelaide. Will take into consideration that it probably won't rain on Sunday in Adelaide, or at least not much, cheers

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Early leans AFL/NRL. Just sides, no totals yet. Think it's going to be a big w/e for favourites in both sports. Not to keen on many dog's this w/e.

NRL
Eels -2 (Wests Tigers) Will almost definitely play this and probably post soon as the Eels will shorten considerably before game time, which is hilarious considering they are 0-4 over the last month with an average losing margin of over 20 points per game.
Roosters -13.5 (Raiders)
Cronulla -5.5 (Newcastle) Really like this one. Shark's pack to completely dominate the Knights for mine.
Brisbane -8.5 (St George)
Penrith +6.5 (North Queensland)

Benny, S22, Rohan, XYZ, TGM, Angelo, Shazza, etc - Thoughts?

As you know, I like the Eels play at -2.
At worst, take -4, DO NOT TOUCH THEM if the line is more than 4.
The game is at Parra Stadium, where apart from last week, they have been money ATS.
I really liked how MoiMoi has been playing the last few weeks - against another shit team, he should lay a bit of a platform for Hayne to do something.

I was eyeing a play on the Raiders, but the 13.5 is way too short - I had this game capped at 22.
The Roosters are on fire at the moment, burning teams left, right and centre.
Against mediocre opposition, they absolutely blitz teams, especially at home.
They will also be out to avenge their shock loss to the Raiders earlier in the year where they blew a 16-0 HT lead to go down 24-22.
David Furner is one of the worst coaches in the NRL and the only reason he still has a job is because his old man is at the helm - nepotism at its finest.
The only reason I am not playing the Chooks for 2-3 units is because they have been up for so long and are due to put in a poor performance at some stage soon.
There is also talk of player unrest at Canberra, with talented fullback Milford reportedly asking for a release.
If pressed, i'd take the Roosters -13.5

I have the Sharks game capped at 4, so my lean would be Knights +5.5, but I am not convinced of their away form and Sharkies have been solid at home - but beware, I expect them to come out a little flat after their huge effort last week in NZ.

Broncos v Dragons, I like the Dragons here, as my line is set at 5.5.
The Dragons have a pretty good record in Brisbane from memory.
Both teams are out of finals contention, the broncos have struggled to score points all season and 8.5 is huge.
The Dragons have actually played better away from WIN this season.

I am with you on the Panthers - catching a try start at home against the most inconsistent team in the NRL is a gimme.
The Cowboys have not won in Sydney this season - their 2 away wins have come at Gosford and Wollongong.
Their season is over and they have shown nothing this season.
The Panthers aren't in the best of form, but they've shown more heart this season than the Cowboys.

The only other play I am eyeing is Rabbitohs +8.5
I think they have been eyeing this game and hence their poor effort last week.
I expect a closer game this weekend and although they may not win, they should cover the 8.5 start.
I am also hearing that GI might be fit for the game and if he is cleared to play, they'll come in at least a couple of points.

[aussieH]

Hey Sando getting in a stoush with sportsbet over first goal kicker promotion. They are trying to say your player must go goalless to get a refund.

Funny language the English language

[aussieH]

Just read your post Sando about your mix up. I will let them have that one lol. Still debating it with the missus though.

[angelo63]

Sharks (-5.5) Knights
Big game for the knights as they are fighting to make the 8 , whilst the Sharks are wanting to cement a home final . The Sharks have a formidable pack and with Lewis and Tupou on standby they look very strong up front. Snowden is back for the Knights also Mcamanus, Jeremy Smith and Costigan are past their best days but they are still hard heads that will relish in this type of battle.
The Sharks had a big win in NZ last week and they may be a little flat. The ASADA crap is gnawing at them still and that must take a toll. Buderus playing game 250 will be a demon for the Knights.
Knights have won the last 3 at the Sharks home ground, I cant pull the trigger on the Sharks as i can see this being a close one. Will keep an eye on the game but atm no bet.

[SonSquad]

Hello guys

More Danish soccer today and I see a nice bet in the match between Horsens and Silkeborg in the Danish 1.div

Horsens are on a roll since they got relegated and as I told before I know some of the players and they are confident in themselves and that they could make a quick promotion to danish premier league.Silkeborg was also relegated but unlike Horsens they have looked shaky and got their *** kicked last round. I expect Horsens to win the game at home and the odds at 1,83 @bet365 is worth 7/10 units.

Good luck mates.

[sweetjones55]

Seems like its shaping up to be a big week in NRL!

Thought Id share some early WNBA action for tomorrow as I may not get a chance to post later.

Washington VS Minnesota
These two teams met back in June with Washington pulling off the upset winning by 5. Although the scoreboard showed Washington winning Minnesota killed it in stats apart from FG%. Minnesota had 18 more shot attempts, better rebounds and less turn overs. So its no surprise that after recent form Minnesota have gone -15 point favourites for this game. I think this line is very sharp, and probably not worth playing.

The game total has come out at 159.5 which I think is a tad too low considering recent form and stats which would back the over. Ive got this game set at 167 giving us 7 points of value.

- Washington has gone over in 4 of its last 5 games
- Washington has gone over in 5 of its last 5 road games
- Washington has gone over in 5 of the last 6 games on the road vs Minnesota

- Washington Average 79.7 points on the road
- Minnesota Average 89.3 points at home
- Both teams average 69 FG attempts at home and on road
- Minnesota average 48.6FG% at home

The last time these two teams played in Washington the total was set at 157, and the over cashed with 165 points being scored.

OVER 159.5 @$1.91 X3 UNITS to win 2.73 UNITS

Nice writeup, can tell there was some serious work done on your part. Most everything you posted though is on the offensive end. Try and incorporate some defensive stats. For instance, Washington gives up 78 Minnesota gives up 74. Those numbers alone scream for the Under. Not saying the Under is the play but always good to look at everything and then determine which numbers are more significant and why. Good luck tonight.

[trigga50]

Sweetjones55, Its great to hear from the WNBA King. Ive taken the defensive factors from each team into this game. Defensively Washington allow 83.8 points on the road while Minnesota average 89 points scored per game at home. Minnesota allow 70 points at home whilst Washington score 79.8 on the road. Obviously both teams offences are the key stats here. I try and find the middle ground between the stats which do and don't support an outcome to make a play. Washington are more reliant on jump shots which prevented me from making it a larger play. If I was to predict one I'm expecting a 91-75 scoreline.

Id be interested to hear if you had any leans on the game?

[trigga50]

Adding another play for tomorrow, game starts at 8:30AEST

LA VS Indiana
This game intrigues me a bit in terms of the line of -3.5 in favour of Indiana. LA on any other day of the week would be favourites in this match up except this game they will most likely be without Candice Parker for the 4th straight game. Im not going to bite on the LA +3.5 line but I've turned my attention to the game total. Indiana have been a solid defensive team at home all season. When you look at some top offensive teams Indiana have played at home, 2 in particular come to mind.

Chicago (4th ranked offense) @ Indiana Aug 3rd 79-58 (indiana win)
Minnesota (1st ranked offense) @ Indiana July 11th 62-69 (minnesota win)

LA is ranked number 2 in offence, but without Candice Parker their offensive game will take a hit against what I believe to be the best defence in the WNBA. The total has gone under in 7 of 9 games in Indiana this season.

UNDER 145 @$1.91 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.36 UNITS

[sweetjones55]

Sweetjones55, Its great to hear from the WNBA King. Ive taken the defensive factors from each team into this game. Defensively Washington allow 83.8 points on the road while Minnesota average 89 points scored per game at home. Minnesota allow 70 points at home whilst Washington score 79.8 on the road. Obviously both teams offences are the key stats here. I try and find the middle ground between the stats which do and don't support an outcome to make a play. Washington are more reliant on jump shots which prevented me from making it a larger play. If I was to predict one I'm expecting a 91-75 scoreline.

Id be interested to hear if you had any leans on the game?

I worry about Washington's ability to score the ball tonight. Minnesota lost to Washington earlier in the season so they have some revenge here. Also, Washington's schedule has been pretty brutal lately. Washington has been playing every other day for over a week now. Played the 31st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th. They've also had to travel for every single game. I don't really have a lean either way.

[OZnBa Fan]

Hey Sando getting in a stoush with sportsbet over first goal kicker promotion. They are trying to say your player must go goalless to get a refund.

Funny language the English language

That's what the promotion is mate.... How shit is it?

[OZnBa Fan]

Hello guys

More Danish soccer today and I see a nice bet in the match between Horsens and Silkeborg in the Danish 1.div

Horsens are on a roll since they got relegated and as I told before I know some of the players and they are confident in themselves and that they could make a quick promotion to danish premier league.Silkeborg was also relegated but unlike Horsens they have looked shaky and got their *** kicked last round. I expect Horsens to win the game at home and the odds at 1,83 @bet365 is worth 7/10 units.

Good luck mates.

Tailing mate lets get this...

[bfour]

Sando, what's your opinion on SweetJones55? Everyone seems to have an opinion but you seem to be a pretty respectable, honest guy without any biases.

[sando]

Sando, what's your opinion on SweetJones55? Everyone seems to have an opinion but you seem to be a pretty respectable, honest guy without any biases.

Well you've been here since '08, so no doubt you remember his NBA thread. Many people don't like him as he used to post his plays here for free and then he "went tout" and now you have to pay for them. However if you forget about all of that and just look at the facts, he is good.

I don't have an opinion on his WNBA or football, however I can confirm that he is very good at NBA. How do I know this? Because during the NBA season, one of the guys from this very thread subscribed to his NBA service and forwarded the plays on to me. I would try to finish my own plays before looking at SJ's, so as not to cloud my own judgement if we were on different sides, but the main thing I was interested in was reading his write-up's. I am fanatical about NBA, so not easily fooled by some of the shitty write-ups and analysis that I have come across, but there is no denying he knows his stuff. His analysis is excellent and reading it has helped me sharpen my own handicapping.

[aussieH]

This thread has been great this week. No bullshit, no ass kissing, no trolls. Even sj55 dropping in to tail some afl and NRL.

Best play this week is Gold Coast -36.5. Gold Coast destroyed melbourne at the mcg and they are a better team at home and melbourne have worsened since then if that is even possible.

[sando]

AFL

Ok I've done a bit of analysis on my own spreadsheet to see how we're travelling in AFL and this is what I have discovered.

Last losing round was round 12 back on the 14th-16th of June.

By the end of that round I was at the low point of the season with my record being -11.82 units at the end of round 12.

Since then have had 7 consecutive winning weeks in AFL and have made a total of +30.17 units during that time period. This brings the season total to +18.35 units.

The main factor contributing to the turnaround has been total's. 12-3 in AFL total's since round 12 of the season.

Last round - 8-4 for +6.63 units for the w/e.

Let's hope the good form continues as we move into the business end of the season.

Ok - down to business... No totals yet - Just sides.

Western Bulldogs @ Carlton
Have watched every Bulldogs game over the last month and have been amazed at their rapid improvement from earlier in the season. Last w/e the Bulldog's played "Swan's like" football against the Swans - the ultimate compliment. With Cooney back in great form and rising stars Liberatore and Dalhaus providing a real spark, this team's future actually looks a lot brighter all of a sudden. Griffin as always is in sparkling form and like Cooney, Bob Murphy is playing his best football in ages. Bizzarely, the dog's actually have more genuine stars in this game than Carlton do, the main difference is that they don't have the depth that Carlton does, as the age old test of a football side is - to look at their bottom 5, not their top 5. Carlton is so up and down, with a massive gap between their best and worst, and hence they can be very hard to handicap. Waite is a much needed in for them, however Kreuzer and Carazzo are massive out's, especially Kreuzer as the Dog's Will Minson is one of the best Ruckmen in the comp and the main reason why the Bulldogs are 2nd at clearances in the league and 1st at centre bounce clearances. The Bulldogs play their best football at Etihad. Over the last month the Bulldogs are clearly in better form than the Blues and I love a big dog who is in better form than the favourite.
1.5* Western Bulldogs +20.5 ($1.91 Centrebet)
0.5* Western Bulldogs (to win by) 1-39 ($3.70 Sportsbet)

North Melbourne @ Adelaide
The Roo's showed what they are capable of last week against Geelong as they have many times this year. The difference was this time they kept it up for 4 quarters and the results were devastating. Who can honestly say when Geelong fought to within 2 points just before 3Q time that they still believed in the Roos? Exactly - probably nobody. The Roos know that short of a miracle and the 'Dons being dumped from the 8 that finals are out of reach. However what Scoot and Brayshaw also know is that the core of this team is good enough to build a premiership side with and they will be desperate to finish the season off strongly and lay the platform for a top 4 run next year. Adelaide on the other hand are finally done - killed by the sword of their fiercest rivals, and the manner in which it happened would have broken the Crows hearts and quite possibly what little resistance they had left this year. The combination of the Tippet saga, horrible luck with injuries and a general long term drop in form of last years star's (except for Dangerfield), and perhaps more importantly a drop in belief has not helped the Crows. Nor has the fact that this year's draw has been particularly tough, after they had the best draw in the league last year, which may have inflated their results? Regardless the Kangaroos are a better team up forward and down back and can break even with the Crows through the middle. In general they are bigger and faster than the Crows and they tackle harder and spread better. The Crows are only 3-7 @ Aami this season and the ground does not hold the fear to opposition sides as it has in recent years. The Roos are only 1-6 away from Etihad, however it is deeper than that. They threw away 2 "unloseable" games against West Coast and Hawthorn and probably another against Brisbane when they were cruising through 3 quarters, but got steamrolled in the 4th. If you were to take away the choking factor in all fairness they would be 4-3 away from Etihad, and this having played some very good teams. Of course we can't dismiss the choking factor, as this is the reality of the Roos season. However it is amazing how quickly things can change. No team in the AFL steamrolls opposition as badly as Geelong do when they get rolling, and yet the Roo's fought them off and deservedly won the game. Finally for the first time this season the Roos delivered under pressure and it looks like a classic scenario now where they will finish the season on fire but it will be too little, too late. If both teams play to their best this w/e the Roos win by 30+ The Kangaroos play a brand of football that has proven it can stand up against the best teams, and they will have not forgotten that heartbreaking loss they suffered against the Crows in round 9, clearly one of the most painful in a very long and painful season. Unlike the Crows the Roos have not given up on the season, despite how forlorn their finals chances would seem. The Roos are statistically the best 1st Q team in the league, the Crows are a very poor 1st quarter team. Suffice to say it seems like a solid bet that the Roos might build up a nice lead early in the game. Unlike the rest of this season I have a strong belief that if they do take a nice lead into HT, this time they will hang on to it.
1.5* North Melbourne 1st Half -1.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet)
1* North Melbourne -3.5 ($1.92 Pinnacle)

Melbourne @ Gold Coast
Gold Coast's last fortnight hasn't been great, however they were quite competitive in WA against an improved Eagles side last week. The Demons on the other hand just keep hitting new lows and gone is any thought of "playing for Neil Craig" after their last fortnight. They are dead last in clearances, center clearances, inside 50's, disposals, contested posessions and uncontested posessions. The Suns are a great clearance team. With Ablett, Bennel and O'Meara rotating through the midfield the Suns should dominate the D's at stoppages and gain plenty of first use ball. The line does not bother me in the slightest. They beat the D's by 60 at the MCG in round 7 and the D's are not a better team now at this point in the season, whereas the Suns probably are, plus this game is at Metricon. The D's are 0-16 on the road with an average losing margin of 67.8 points. Oh yeah and did I mention this is the great man's 250th game? - not that a young team like the Suns needs any extra motivation as they never take any opponent for granted.
2* Gold Coast -37.5 ($1.93 Pinnacle)

Sydney v Collingwood
One good game and so many are ready to jump on the Pies bandwagon. Yes they were outstanding against the Dons last week, however it should also be noted that this wasn't the same Essendon that we have seen for the majority of the season. People love to look at the Pies dominant recent record over the Swans, and especially at ANZ, and yes the Pies have been the Swans bogey team for years. However, firstly it should be noted that all Swans home games against the Pies are played at ANZ, and considering the Swans have won the last 2 games (in dominant fashion), including last years PF at ANZ, I would say the hoodoo has been broken. In fact if anything, ANZ stadium is the perfect ground for the Swans vaunted slingshot offence, as they have evolved significantly from the dour SCG stoppage specialist team they were under Roos. The Swans destroyed the Pies in round 9 at the MCG, however based on last weeks performance you could say the Pies are a significantly better team than they were in round 9. Of course if you were to look a bit further at the two games before last week, where they barely beat GWS and lost to the Suns, you could also argue that they are not necessarily a better team. What is most relevant is that the Pies are very inconsistent and like Carlton it is hard to judge which side will show up on a weekly basis. The Swans on the other hand are not only the form team of the league, they are also playing like the best team in the league, and they are also playing like the premiers. The Pies traditionally have dominated the Swans through the midfield, however that has been completely flipped on it's head, as the Swans not only have the strongest and deepest midfield in the league, they arguably have the best midfield seen since the great Brisbane Lions of the early 2000's. The line at -15.5 is too short and hence suspicious, as is the fact that so many media "experts" are picking the Pies to actually win, let alone cover. Based on what? One really good game last week? Yes - Swan and Beams are in great form, and Harry O'sookie-pants is starting to look pretty good too. However is there a hotter 1-2 punch in the entire AFL at the moment than Jack and Hannebury? Their have been lingering questions over Collingwood's general match fitness? Perhaps it is commitment and not fitness that is the problem? Regardless, the Swans run harder in both directions, they are a fast team and they are a fitter team. They are also a more committed team. That's the key thing - the Swans are a team - 1 unified group of individuals who are all on the same page. The Pies have displayed anything but team unity this year. If the Pies were to play like they did last week, then they could most definitely win this match, but then on the other hand if the Swans were to play close to their best football, then it will be irrelevant what the Pies do. What others see in the Pies that I don't is slightly troubling, however most definitely not enough to sway my judgement.
2* Swans HT/FT ($1.87 Luxbet) (Oustanding value being offered by Luxbet @ $1.87 and will surely not last).
1.5* Swans -15.5 ($1.93 Bet365)

Hawthorn @ St Kilda
Nobody wants to play the Hawks coming off a loss. They take the BBF to scary levels as their recent record would indicate. Saints are one of the few teams that are getting worse as the season progresses. The Hawks full forward line of Rioli, Roughead and Burgoyne is one of the most dynamic FF lines seen in the last decade and against Dempster, Blake and Roberton, spells big trouble for the Saints. Far more concerned about Hodge being out than Franklin, however this game should be over by HT regardless. Hawks to win big.
1.1* Hawthorn -53.5 ($1.88 Pinnacle)

[sando]

NRL

Last Round 0-2 -3 units (Didn't get to post any more plays after Friday night as SBR was down)

Season +22.18 units

Just plays for now, will add some analysis later. It's 0630 and I'm far too tired by now.

Knights @ Sharks
1.5* Under 38.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet)
1* Sharks (to win by) 1-12 ($3.10 Centrebet)

Dragons @ Broncos
2.5* Broncos -7.5 ($1.83 Sportsbet)

Roosters v Raiders
2* Roosters team total Over 26.5 ($1.94 Sportsbet)

Wests Tigers @ Parramatta
1* Over 46 ($2.00 Bet365)
1* Parramatta HT/FT ($2.20 Luxbet)

[swordsandtequila]

[Lilfatbum]

Parker starts

[micase]

I'm all over souths +8.5, I got that at 2.03 with betworks. Getting half a point more than that crucial 8 point margin at over even money odds was too hard to pass up. Souths have one of the best forward packs in the game and with the possible return of G.I they should be able to keep it a tight match.

With Maurice Blair possibly out, some of their fire power out wide could be limited.

[trigga50]

Parker starts

Ive got no idea how this under has hit but it has. All game Indiana were giving up fast break transition points and LA took advantage of it. Indiana finally tightened up in the 4th quarter and there were a lot more jump shots put up, and less fouls which gave us a 22 point 4th quarter.

Minny and Washington game looking good so far.

[s2230011]

Dont think GI will be playing tonight

[OZnBa Fan]

Dont think GI will be playing tonight

a lot of people around the foum where saying he near on certain to play. I noticed the line is -9.5 on luxbet which sent a few alarm bells I guess

please post some prop bets if you get the chance mate?

[hawley]

Inglis is OUT.

Didn't make the trip to Melbourne.

[Crowing Capers]

Damn those AFL write ups were impressive, Sando.
Not playing the Roos against my Crows but loving all those other AFL plays , in particular the Suns. The present Demons squad will go down as 1 of the worst teams in AFL history. Sando covers it all that needs to be said in his write ups.

Big weekend lads
Lets cash

[Gee]

Ive got no idea how this under has hit but it has. All game Indiana were giving up fast break transition points and LA took advantage of it. Indiana finally tightened up in the 4th quarter and there were a lot more jump shots put up, and less fouls which gave us a 22 point 4th quarter.

Minny and Washington game looking good so far.

Nice hit on the under. I played it too, but couldn't watch most of the game. I can never bring myself to watch unders that look horrible.

I think during the 3rd quarter the live line was 160 or so... turned it on with 6 mins left and back on pace.

GL with your other plays.