NRL
Bronco's @ Knight's
The Knights are without both their starting prop's for this game, creating a rather unusual situation where the Bronco's have the superior pack and the Knight have the superior back line, especially across the 3/4 line. The Bronco's have an oustanding record against the Knights (27-12), having dominated them for pretty much 25 years since they both came into the league in '88. They also have won 4 of the last 6 in Newcastle. Newcastle have been very flaky and unpredictable this season, the gap between their best and worst is as big as any team running around, however they have been more consistent at Hunter where they are 6-3 with an average winning margin of an astonishing 24 points this season. The Bronco's are 3-6 on the road and only 3-8 (home & away) over the last 3 months. My favourite stat - the Bronco's are 0-7 against top 8 teams this year - ouch. The line is about as suspicous as a nun doing squats in a cucumber field, however with Reed and Hannant probable in's for the Bronco's and Big Willie and Snowden out for the Knights that explains some, but not all? Even with those in/outs I would handicap the game as Knights -6.5 to -8 from a stats/numbers point of view and Knights -6 from a subjective point of view. As always I'll bite, I don't spook easy. There is so much more to say, but precious little time to get it out...
1.5* Knights -3.5 ($1.79 Sportsbet)
1.5* Knights -5.5 ($1.96 Luxbet)