[trigga50]

Yeah came out nicely. I was still very confident at half time each team having 38 shot attempts and washington shooting horrible at 27%. Was set to be a big second half.

[Abb88ate]

I also occasionally wager on Rugby Union, Boxing and Netball.

[ExodusNZ]

Hey Sando - Any update about Mark Williams ?

[Steve_Gennison]

If you've gotta have a bet on the aussies tonight my suggested bet is for us to win the coin toss at $1.95 (Sportsbet)

[shevabets]

Yeah came out nicely. I was still very confident at half time each team having 38 shot attempts and washington shooting horrible at 27%. Was set to be a big second half.

Pondexter is playing like she never left Phoenix. That was an exceptionally fast-paced game. Well played!

[trigga50]

Pondexter is playing like she never left Phoenix. That was an exceptionally fast-paced game. Well played!

Thanks bud, hey you seem like you have some good handles on the WNBA, keep the feedback coming and together we might be able to have a profitable 2nd half of the season.

[rohan22no]

Cricket tips/thoughts Sando?

[MrXYZ]

Thanks trigga, I got on this one at the last minute for a nice payday.

[shevabets]

Thanks bud, hey you seem like you have some good handles on the WNBA, keep the feedback coming and together we might be able to have a profitable 2nd half of the season.

Cheers!
Provided Griner sits out (which I think she will), what do you think is a fair line for PHO@SEA?

[benrama]

Sando - love the Roosters future play with Inglis out for Souths on their run home. I'm a recent concert to futures plays and like to pick these type of spots.

Also having a small play on Brisbane to make top 8 at $7.00, they have a relatively easy run home and a few ways to sneak in, with two of their last six games against the Knights, one against Penrith, potential for Warriors to have a letdown, and the Raiders having a brutal run home (storm roosters bulldogs manly warriors).

[sando]

Hey Sando - Any update about Mark Williams ?

Not recently no, still of the same opinion personally - it's a two horse race between Choco and Rocket and all money wagered on Roo's is wasted money.

Cricket tips/thoughts Sando?

Nope sorry mate, too busy (I know I never got around to answering your initial bunch of cricket questions, I haven't forgotten about them). I'm busy as always with this w/e's NRL & AFL games, however also starting to put some initial work into the Rugby League World Cup, the ITM cup and the FIBA Asian basketball games.

AFL
Showdown XXXV - Adelaide v Port

So many angles and variables in this game. Adelaide with nothing to play for but pride, Port with everything to play for as a loss would leave them outside the 8 if Carltôn was to win their home game against Freo. Crows with a massive in - Dangerfield and also a massive out - Sloane, leaving them without 3 of their 4 best players (Tex, Reilly, Sloane). Rutten in helps their defence but Jenkins out just continues Adelaide's misery in the forward line, where between injury (Walker, Jenkins, McKernan) form (the Porpoise) and the giant hole that big Tippett has left, Adelaide has close to the worst forward line in the league at the moment. Compare this to Port's front six and you will find 6 guys - none of them big name stars, but for mine one of the most impressive forward line's you will see this year.

Westhoff - Schultz - Hartlett
Monfries - Butcher - Gray

With Butcher the gap between his best and worst is quite large, and Monfries is not quite up to the level he was playing at the Dons last year, but overall this is a very impressive forward line. The "Hoff" is capable of dominating games, Schultz is one of the more under-rated FF's in the league and Hartlett and Gray are very handy. The difference between the two forward lines is massive at the moment. With Sloane out for Adelaide and young guns Wingard and Wines backing up captain Boak in the midfield for Port, they can clearly break even with Adelaide. Amazingly Port is a better defensive team at the moment with hard tackling and a solid defensive press, whereas Adelaide is a weak and horrible tackling team this year. Don't get me wrong, the Crows are a capable team and do have a habit of defying the odds, they can "turn it on" for periods, but not usually a full game. Port are fitter and they are playing harder football, even if behind at 3/4 time they could conceivably run over the top of the Crows. They have the belief from winning some tight games recently, the same type of games the Crows have let blow out into significant losses in the 4th quarter. Port has a better "game day" coach by far who is capable of spotting negative patterns/elements and making the neccesary adjustments quickly and they have more to play for as well. They beat the Crows in the 1st Showdown this year and Adelaide were travelling better then coming of an impressive win at the Gabba the week before and with big Tex, Reilly, Danger, Sloane, Jenkins and friends all in the team and Port behind at 3/4 time, yet they came from behind to run over the top of the Crows. Nothing will change this week in the last ever Showdown at Aami.
2* Port -2.5 ($1.93 Bet365)
0.5* Port (to win by) 25+ ($3.55 Luxbet)

Melbourne @ GWS
2* GWS m/l ($1.90 Pinnacle)

Adding...
1.1* GWS 1st Half -2.5 ($1.91 Centrebet)
GWS are getting absolutely pounded, moving in even below $1.80 now at $1.68 - $1.70, amazing how much a winless team is getting pounded. They opened @ $2.10.

[trigga50]

Cheers!
Provided Griner sits out (which I think she will), what do you think is a fair line for PHO@SEA?

Yeah Griners long awaited return could happen this game. I think she has been ready for a while but they have purposely waited until 1st game after all star break to bring her back into action to avoid any chance of re injury. Griner has now been upgraded to probable which has sent the line out to Phoenix -2.5 which is pretty good value if you ask me. Griner boosts Phoenix's overall rebounds and is a big part of their defence. Griners absence has also given the team a chance to try a few different things and give a few players more court time, which should have strengthened their benches confidence a bit. Im pretty keen to get on board Phoenix at the moment...

[sando]

AFL

St Kilda @ Brisbane
2* Lions/Lions/Lions/Lions (lead every quarter) ($1.83 Sportsbet)

Geelong @ North Melbourne
2* Over 204.5 ($1.91 Bet365)
1* North Melbourne +21.5 ($1.92 Luxbet)
Two offensive juggernauts playing at Etihad where the weather is always perfect for footy (these days at least after last years rain debacle). Round 2 clash @ Etihad they had racked up 181 points by 3/4 time before the Cats kicked a terrible 3.8 in the 4th and the total still hit 220. Obviously I'm not basing my play on a 1 game sample, however it was a perfect snapshot of how fast these teams play offensively. Unlike Freo and some others these guys don't waste time concentrating on "possession" and trying to draw the defence outside the 50, instead they use the ball and take chances (albeit in different ways) with the goal being to get the ball inside forward 50 quickly before defences can get set. The Roo's in particular can be devastating at clearances often gaining possession in defence and moving the ball straight up the corridor and inside the forward 50 within seconds, whereas Geelong is more Sydney like in the way they punish turnovers with quick slingshot like transitions from defence to attack. Geelong is an exceptional defensive unit, third best in the league when they choose to actually apply themselves but as with Miami in the NBA, Geelong is arrogant and confident enough to take teams on at their own gameplan and beat them, as has recently been the case with Geelong v North, we have seen shoot-outs in their last two games, both at Etihad with game totals of 220 and 245 respectively.

As we discussed during the NBA season, it may be counter-intuitive to play the under on really low totals (180 - NBA) and the over on really high totals (210 - NBA) however flat betting both without thought for 1 unit does return long term dividends. The biggest value will always be found on particularly low and high totals? Why? Because there is only so far in either direction the books can go (regardless of what the numbers tell them) before they will be faced with an extreme differential in betting percentages from the punters which will put them (Sports books) in a position where they are gambling, and books do everything they can to avoid gambling, they leave that to us. In a sports books perfect world, every game they take money on would be split 50/50 on both sides (line and totals) and then they would simply cash the vig on every game and get rich in the process. The point of all this being when you get totals (in any sport) that have a true value that is significantly higher or lower than the standard range (170-200 AFL, 34-44 NRL, 180-210 NBA) of most totals, that is when you will find the true value. Recreational punters see really low totals and bet the over, and vice versa with the really high totals, when if you were to go create a chart or graph of long term results you would probably find than genuine value = profit would increase exponentially as you bet larger amounts on the lowest under's and the same on the highest over's. As a general rule this works for most sports, however I have only tested it myself with the NBA (with marvellous results).

Richmond @ Hawthorn
1.5* Hawthorn -28.5 ($1.95 Pinnacle)
1* Richmond 1st Quarter +6.5 ($1.95 Sportsbet)
0.25* Tigers/Hawks/Hawks/Hawks ($8.00 Sportsbet)

Gold Coast @ West Coast
1* West Coast (to win by) 1-39 ($2.25 Sportsbet)

Freemantle @ Carlton
1.5 Over 167.5 ($1.91 Bet365)

[rohan22no]

Great analysis as always Sando, thanks

[trigga50]

Staying away from indiana today. Tamika catchings is expected to miss. Phoenix still looking good though but lost alot of value now out to -4

[brumbies]

wow i just read that sportsbet paid out on ablett to win the brownlow with 5 rounds left.

[sando]

wow i just read that sportsbet paid out on ablett to win the brownlow with 5 rounds left.

Yeah they did that a few years ago with Dane Swan and then took it in the arse to the tune of 300K+ when he didn't win, hilarious. I must give sportsbet their props however, with their early payouts, justice refunds and crazy specials (both the NRL and AFL specials for August look particularly generous) Sportsbet (i.e Paddy Power) is doing the most of any of the big name books to try and counter the growing menace that is Tom Waterhouse...

[sando]

The lines being set in this Asian basketball championship are some of the worst I have ever seen, these guys truly have no clue. Last night they had Phillipines -35 against Saudi Arabia - WTF? Yeah the tourney is being help in Phillipines, but the phillo's are a bunch of short arses who are great as juniors but never seem to make the transition into a strong national team, which is dumbfounding considerinh how obsessed with basketball the country is. Anyway the Arab's don't fukc around when it comes to basketball, they are usually big and strong, they take the game seriously and they play hard. The line seemed so off that I was a bit put off and only cautiously played the Saudi's +35 for 1 unit. Of course the Phillo's only won by 12, proving the line is indeed a joke. Right now the live line at Bet365 between China and Malaysia is -84.5 which is the most insane line I have ever heard of in a game of professional basketball, where by FIBA rules many teams would be lucky to even score 85 points in a game, although in this case the line is actually not to bad as this Malaysian team is possibly the worst senior international men's team to ever rock up to a tournament - even India would beat them by 40+ and that's bad...

[vasilli07]

Any NRL plays?

[astrobloke]

sando tipped you mate, I want your children...haha....u always bring awesome stuff to the table,

I bet your wife tells you to hold 4 wet bath towels on your stiffy and you can do that too!

no pics please. :P

Like I said, you da man!, keep up the good work! Thanks again.

[sando]

sando tipped you mate, I want your children...haha....u always bring awesome stuff to the table,

I bet your wife tells you to hold 4 wet bath towels on your stiffy and you can do that too!

no pics please. :P

Like I said, you da man!, keep up the good work! Thanks again.

No wife, no kids, but I do have a crazy Serbian g/f who beats me up when she gets drunk. Throws elbows like Jon Jones.

Any NRL plays?

Working on it mate, probably a few hours sorry.

[OZnBa Fan]

hahahaha they must be some mean elbows

[Shazzadude]

Any leans on today's Asian championship games? I ran bad in the Asian cup last year, that bloody Iran-Uzbekistan game in particular. India -5.5 looks alright to me.

[sando]

Ok boys, it's Asian basketball time, so grab a bowl of fried rice and stretch out your mouse clicking finger. Well before this thread the first plays I posted on SBR were international basketball plays, way back in roxxyfish's WNBA thread, which is kind of ironic because these days Trigga is king enough to post his own WNBA plays in my NBA thread. Anyway I've watched a couple of games and I'm 4-0 so far (although 3 of them were live bets) so I'm gonna post a couple of plays. I love watching international basketball and seeing how different basketball cultures interact with each other. So we'll just stick to 1 unit plays unless something really stands out, then maybe 2x.
Saudi Arabia v Chinese Taipei
1* Under 153.5 ($1.93 Pinnacle)
You can get Under 154.5 @ Bet365 for $1.85 but I'm being greedy. All 9 games these teams have played (7 qualifying games and their first 2 games at this tournament have gone below this total. In fact only 2 of the 8 games played at the tournament so far have gone over 150. Game starts in about 25 minutes - sorry, wasn't planning on posting any plays.
Sorry my mistake - Chinese Taipei has actually played a high scoring game that did go was actually the highest scoring game in this tournament yet, but otherwise their qualifying games were all under that total and Saudi is a defensive minded team who play low scoring games, mainly because their offense blows, so they stick to their strengths. Taipei's first game against Jordan has slightly inflated this total today IMO... (Late money coming in for the under at Pinnacle has pushed it down to 152 which is always a nice sign).

[bmoney76]

Hey Sando, thanks for the tips. I can only bet $194 max bet on this game. Is anyone else limited to this amount? I've never bet on international FIBA basketball on bet365....
Sando can you tell me how long your in-game time delay is after you place a bet to the time it is actually taken by bet365..?

[sando]

Hey Sando, thanks for the tips. I can only bet $194 max bet on this game. Is anyone else limited to this amount? I've never bet on international FIBA basketball on bet365....
Sando can you tell me how long your in-game time delay is after you place a bet to the time it is actually taken by bet365..?

I'm in Australia mate so we are not allowed to live bet on the internet. I use Bet Victor and Pinnacle where I can live bet instantly over the net like the rest of the world, I rarely use bet365 unless they are offering the best pre game odds on something. They do release AFL total's the earliest so I guess I use them mainly for AFL total's. Pinny has no live betting on this tournament, so I have been using Bet Victor - there is no delay, maybe 1-2 seconds although I have spent a lot of money on my CPU, so I guess that helps.

[Crowing Capers]

Lets hope it's brick city on this Saudi BB game
Hitting the pub to get on the gas , lets get the weekend of to a winning start.

With you on the overs in the Cats/Roos match tonight Sando.
Also will add Norwood play Port in Sanfl tonight and the -29.5 point line looks tasty to me.
At home the mighty Legs will love the chance to end the magpies slim finals hopes.
Expect at least a 7-8 goal win

Good punting lads

[sando]

So much for the Saudi's defence. Taipei can't miss when they keep rolling to the rim and the Saudi's are already in the penalty so foul called every play. Luckily basketball is a game of 4 quarter's, yet this play looks dead in the water already. Saudi's aren't supposed to be a great defensive team, but a team that plays defence through solid and almost rough play. They look nothing like the team that play the Phillo's - it's like they have all been sipping on Kava...

[Shazzadude]

Tseng is Taiwan's main man, he's team mates with Gilbert Arenas at the Shanghai Sharks.

[rohan22no]

I jus places a live bet on this game at pinny. Wtf? I didn't even realise until now that pinny accepted live bets from Aussies at all for anything...I've been ringing up centrebet like an idiot!

p.s...crazy Serbian gf...yes plz

[s2230011]

I am just going through some player props numbers .. and will post as I go along and find anything interesting .. let me know if you see an angle on anything ...

Disclaimer though ... I am running ICE ICE cold ... I think earlier in the week I lost 5 bets in a row by .5, it was insane .. and my only bet today was on Seattle in MLB, and they were up 7-2 going into the bottom of the ninth ... and magic the Red Sox score 6 runs and win the game .. how do you make this stuff up ??

Anyhow .. Looking at the Broncos and Knights game .. Parker has exceeded his line 150.5, 7 games in a row !! Not sure we should be jumping back on now but seems strange.

I think Hoffmans line of 150.5 is also way too big, he only played one game in fullback which was last week and he got 127 m, but generally thats a high number for fullbacks and I am not sure him/broncos warrant it.

Last one for now is Boyd, yes he had a good game but 135.5 is a bit high, last time he exceeded that was in round 10 !! However, he did reach 135 last week and they bookies are obviously thinking he is on the way up ?

[lordkai35]

s22

iam looking at james robers over 90.5m
has made over 90 every game bar one this year when sharks trashed penrith by 30 last week.
i dont expect moylan to take all kick returns and roberts loves a hitup.

thoughts?

[OZnBa Fan]

I am just going through some player props numbers .. and will post as I go along and find anything interesting .. let me know if you see an angle on anything ...

Disclaimer though ... I am running ICE ICE cold ... I think earlier in the week I lost 5 bets in a row by .5, it was insane .. and my only bet today was on Seattle in MLB, and they were up 7-2 going into the bottom of the ninth ... and magic the Red Sox score 6 runs and win the game .. how do you make this stuff up ??

Anyhow .. Looking at the Broncos and Knights game .. Parker has exceeded his line 150.5, 7 games in a row !! Not sure we should be jumping back on now but seems strange.

I think Hoffmans line of 150.5 is also way too big, he only played one game in fullback which was last week and he got 127 m, but generally thats a high number for fullbacks and I am not sure him/broncos warrant it.

Last one for now is Boyd, yes he had a good game but 135.5 is a bit high, last time he exceeded that was in round 10 !! However, he did reach 135 last week and they bookies are obviously thinking he is on the way up ?

let me know if u make a official play bud

[s2230011]

I'll have a look at Roberts, but I just made a play on sportsbet.

Jennings U135.5 .. seriously 135.5 for a center?? ok here is the breakdown as fair as possible.

He only exceeded that total 2 from last 8 games and that was against Dragons and Eels. Last week he reached 130 but that was on a back of a length of the field try, and to be fair Jennings has done that a couple of times this year. Generally thats a huge number for a centre and maybe its because he is up against his former club ? But the Roosters and Panthers played each other once already this year and he accumlated 83m then.
He is up against Whare, who has a bit of speed so it wont be a Matt Prior or something.

So I did one last check and Luxbet had this at 120 ... so I knew I found a good one .. in theory at least

[s2230011]

s22

iam looking at james robers over 90.5m
has made over 90 every game bar one this year when sharks trashed penrith by 30 last week.
i dont expect moylan to take all kick returns and roberts loves a hitup.

thoughts?

Its a decent bet, tbh I only watched the guy twice and he went well both times.

You are right about the Cronulla game, cant imagine he would have had many opportunities, but I did not watch that game. Things you should consider is that he will do a lot of defensive work, he is up again Sheck, who the roosters will go to heavily especially in the air, and his inside Lewis will have trouble marking the much faster Kenny Dowell, thats a mismatch that the Roosters will try and exploit tonight - so not sure if that would affect his offence ??

Other thing is he has only played against the Dragons twice, Parra, Titans, Knights and Sharks. The Roosters are a much better defensive side than any of these and would give less opportunities you would think.

sportsbet has him on 95.5 so you got the better line ... I would lean over but a bit of a risky play.

I know thats not much help