[brumbies]

NRL – Friday Night Football

Eels @ Bulldogs
The Eels are the worst team to bet on in the NRL throughout the last 3 seasons (backing the Eels for $100 on the m/l every game would have resulted in a total loss of -$2403).
25-37 ATS (Worst in NRL)
15-47 head to head (Worst in NRL)
4-34 (Away Record) with an astonishing 9-29 ATS
1-27 H2H and 5-23 ATS (Away games in NSW) Hard to believe right? They actually have a better record on interstate away game than they do in NSW.
When getting a start of 10+ in NSW Away games, the Eels are 0-5, both H2H and ATS.
The Bulldogs are basically at full strength this week, welcoming back J-Moz, Kasiano and Frank “the Tank” Pritchard, 3 massive in’s. They are well rested coming off the bye and in their last match they destroyed last season’s premiers 39-0, (albeit a depleted Melbourne side).
Big home favourites coming off a bye have covered ATS in six of 10 matches since 2009
Teams who scored 30+ points at their last start and go in as big home favourite (10+) cover 62.5% ATS since 2009
Last 5 @ ANZ stadium (Eels v Bulldogs) – 5 wins for the ‘doggies by an average of 16ppg.
The Eels 0-11 H2H and 0-11 ATS in their last 11 matches overall at ANZ stadium, with an astonishing average losing margin of 26ppg.

Nice stats! Was wondering did you compile them manually or is there a website that displays these stats?

[Swan4brownlow]

Another great tip Sando!

[sando]

Nice stats! Was wondering did you compile them manually or is there a website that displays these stats?

I'm old school. I don't use any excel spreadsheets or fancy programs. All my numbers and stats are compiled myself. Some of the stats in the above write up were actually "borrowed" from Tom Waterhouse, who is a surprisingly good source for Rugby League news, stats, trends. Another of my favourites is rleague.com, however you would have to be willing to get your hands dirty if you want to extract info from this site > http://stats.rleague.com/rl/rl_index.html

[trigga50]

Great tip on Bulldogs tonight Sando

[RedDevil89]

Ill update today's MLB results I think I ended up in a small profit!
Two big plays today!

3 x units - Washington Nationals 1st game RL -1.5 (Zimmerman must pitch) ($2.05 bet365)
3 x Units - Pittsburg Pirates ML (Locke must pitch) ($1.71 centrebet)

[SonSquad]

Thanks for another great pick Sando

[sando]

All bets placed at Sportsbet (Actually IAS bet, but same same).
Storm @ Warriors - The pick is Warriors to win by 7+. Damn Spreadsheet.

Holden Cup Panthers/Sharks (U20's) - The junior Panthers played what the Dutch would call "total football" last week, in their clinical, ruthless and (almost) error free 30-4 beatdown of the junior Knights. On the back of three straight solid peformances and the league's best defence the Panthers are now equal premiership favourites with the unstoppable baby Raiders. Anyone who follows Holden cup would realise the significance of this. The junior Sharkie's on the other hand are close to the worst team in the cup. What is not arguable is that they are the worst attacking side in the cup averaging 19.5ppg, which is ok by NRL standards, but very weak for U20's. They offer little in attack, boring and predictable with only their young (future NRL superstar) fullback Holmes offering any excitement and un-predictability. The junior Sharkies have the worst differential in the league (-175). The junior Panthers have the best differential in the league by far (+193) . They have a solid and reliable attack, also led by their own future star fullback Walker, and the league's best defence BY FAR. Sharkie's should struggle to score. Home ground advantage not particularly relevant, as the Sharkies are 2-6 home and 2-6 away, whilst the Panthers are 7-2 home and 6-2 away.
Raiders v Dragons - For those that don't know much about NRL, the Raiders dominate the Dragons in the same way that Geelong do to Hawthorn in the AFL. In this case it is even more impressive as unlike in the AFL where Geelong has regularly been the better team than Hawthorn, in this scenario the Dragons have been the better team than the Raiders for years and yet still keep losing to them. Over the 2009-2011 season St George was a powerhouse of the comp, finishing as minor premiers in both 2009 and 2010, whilst the Raiders regularly languished down the bottom of the ladder during that same period, yet they always beat the Dragons. The Raiders enjoy the most dominating record over the Dragons in the NRL at 14-1 over the last 15 games, and having won 8 in a row. What makes this most impressive? Every single season for the last decade the Dragons have finished higher on the ladder than the Raiders until last season (2012), with the only exception being 2008 when they finished equal on 30pts. This "hoodoo" doesn't make the Raiders an auto-play, but it sure does sweeten the deal considering the Raiders are actually the better team this year. Also the Dragons are coming off a 5 day break and their most important forward - Merrin - is playing his 3rd game in 12 days. The Dragons are also lost Cooper for the season, an even bigger blow considering the Raiders welcome back superstar Fergie - giving them 3 genuine game breakers in the back line (Robinson, Ferguson and Milford) and a significant advantage over the Dragons backline that other than guns Dugan and B-Moz is the worst in the league and includes Raiders reject Vidot in the centres and other unwanted Raiders in the Dragons team. Dugan - who has been hot lately - will get targeted and punished by many of the hard hitting forwards in the Raiders pack. I am a Raiders fan, I know this team very well, they will have ZERO mercy on Dugan, who publicly dis-respected the most rugby league mad city in Australia and also highly respected coach Furner. Nobody knows better than Coach Furner and the Raiders just how fragile Dugan actually is. Just one big Pappali hit could end Dugan for the night. Good luck to anyone who has the balls to play Dugan "over" props this week. The Dragons were very impressive against the Rabittoh's last week. Can they back this form up two weeks in a row? I doubt it. What about the 3 games before the 'bunnies win - they were shit in every game. The Raiders will play fast and try and tire the smaller and less mobile Dragon's pack who are coming off a short break and an emotional win. The Dragons are nothing special at home, however the Raiders are impotent on the road with a 1-8 record this year. This bothers me a lot for obvious reasons. The "experts" will tell you that the "value" is clearly with the Dragons as a home dog here and they are probably right.
Panthers @ Sharks - Sharks coming off a good 'ol fashioned flogging at the hands of the Roosters and truth be told they have been in poor form for 2 months now, last good effort coming in round 11 against the 'bunnies. Sharks hit hard by injury, with big names Gallen, Lewis, Ryan, Tupou all out. Graham is a big in, and Robson and Pomeroy will help as well. Panthers not as bad injury wise, although theu sorely missed one half of the "bash brothers" in Nigel Plum last week. Enforcer Masoe is out, but enforcer Sika Manu is a handy replacement. Expecting a good effort from rising star Moylan after he has his pants pulled down by old man Craig Gower last week. The battle between big Timmy Grant and Andrew Fifita will be worth the price of admission alone. The Sharks have a bad habit of fading late in seasons in recent times (4-31 over the last 8 games of the season since 2011) and with the ASADA narc's turning there full attention from Essendon to Cronulla and the key injuries to the Shark's, there is no reason why the Panthers can't win this match. The teams are very evenly matched but the Panthers are in better form overall and less injury depleted, despite also copping a hiding themselves last week. It's amazing how much difference HGA means, with the Sharks laying -6.5, yet if the game was being played in Penrith, the Panthers would be -2 to -3.5 favourites.

[grim259]

I am seeing warriors/storm at +/-2 for -110, any value there or no? Warriors are at +2.

[rohan22no]

Thanks sando

[s2230011]

Good luck solid plays .. But I think it's harsh to call the Dragons back line the worst on the league, especially after last night. Actually in my opinion and I know many will not agree, i think they have the best back 3 in the game.
It will be a very very interesting game. Watched the Holden cup Panthers last week.. They were very good!!

[sando]

[sando]

Good luck solid plays .. But I think it's harsh to call the Dragons back line the worst on the league, especially after last night. Actually in my opinion and I know many will not agree, i think they have the best back 3 in the game.
It will be a very very interesting game. Watched the Holden cup Panthers last week.. They were very good!!

Sorry mate, no offence intended if your a Dragons fan. B-Moz and Dugan are 2 of my favourite players, but without them and Cooper (injured) you have Stanley, Vidot, Nightingale, Quinlan and Fien. Fien is not even a half and I have no idea what position Quinlan is suited too but I don't think he's a half either. Vidot is good at finishing, but nothing else. The Raiders let him go when his contract was cheap as. Nightingale past his best form of 2009-10 and Stanley is ok but nothing special. Personally I would say the Knights back 3 of Uate, Boyd and McManus are the best in the game.

[ExodusNZ]

Im liking:

Titans / Rabbitohs Over 41.5
Tigers / Manly Over 40.5


Also need some advice in the AFL....

From a stats point of view its a play - But as I know nothing about AFL thought id ask here.

Geelong/St Kilda Under 182.5 ??

Im not expecting St Kilda to score alot

[TheMLBKing]

sando, thoughts on fremantle? can they cover the spread?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Sando

Liking your panthers bet, I think the Sharks are getting too much respect.
Just note that the Warriors have only beaten 1 team by more than 2 points at Mt Smart this season.
However, they have scored 18 or more points in every home game this year.


Doggies looking sharp, but Barba is out for 5 weeks after picking up an injury last night.
Just reading that the Dogs have all but signed Reni Maitua for 2014 - can you believe it??

[sando]

AFL Half Time Play
Buckley will tear the Pies a new one at HT. It doesn't get any more embarrassing that being down at HT at the MCG to the baby Giants. Even the Pies fanatics are booing their own team. I expect them to come out breathing fire in the 2nd half and outscore the Giants by 8 goals+
1.1* Collingwood -28.5 ($1.90 Sportingbet)

[s2230011]

That's fair enough .. It's just opinions. I would take Dugan ahead of Boyd, I would tak BMoz ahead of Uate and I would take Nightengale ahead of McManus. The halves are the worst in the league pretty much. Anyway ... Good luck with ur Canberra tip, both sides look switched on

[sando]

sando, thoughts on fremantle? can they cover the spread?

Originally I thought so, however it's been raining in Perth with more to come. Could be a scrappy low scoring game, so now 4+ goals seems like a significant spread. The under looks the better bet mate.
1.1* Adelaide @ Freemantle Under 154.5 ($1.91 Bet365)

[Cobra Kai]

Agree with Sando, even without the slippery conditions, I liked Adelaide plus the points.

[aussieH]

Can. Anyone confirm the ground conditions in Perth.

[therealdealau]

Hey mate, i'm not at the game so unsure of the conditions on the ground but the weather in Perth right now is a fine cool Perth winters evening, there has been random spots of rain today and it was pouring last night so i think the ground is pretty wet

[sando]

Surprise, surprise Dugan went off injured, although it was actually friendly fire that bought him down. The hoodoo continues. Dugan's Over/Under today was an insane 187.5. Under cashed easily for my biggest prop bet of the season.

[Hawke]

Nice play on the raiders there Sando; let's hope for the over in Titans Rabbits.

[TheMLBKing]

Agree with Sando, even without the slippery conditions, I liked Adelaide plus the points.

how is that agreeing with him?

[aussieH]

Radio commentators are saying conditions are bad. High winds and greasy under is the play

[rohan22no]

Awesome tips on the raiders + the half time AFL bet Sando, thanks!

[s2230011]

Like Goodwin and walker to score tonight

[sando]

Awesome tips on the raiders + the half time AFL bet Sando, thanks!

Mate why didn't Fegie Ferg play? Do you know? Oh how I enjoy beating the Dragons haha. Do you have a Pstars account? Want to play heads up? (low limit SNG's just for fun) Maybe you could help me sharpen my game? I'm very rusty...

[rohan22no]

I was surprised as you when I saw the team lineup, no idea why he didnt play. Luckily we didnt need him in the end (just!).

Yes I have a Pstars account, of course keen for some HU action. PM me your deets and we'll tee up a time.

[Cubanpete]

Been tailing Sando for awhile and thought I better sign up and say bloody good work mate!

[TheMLBKing]

so do we hammer the live line of adelaide +40.5?

[sando]

Nice start to the w/e. Have now hit 9 AFL totals in a row. Hit a bunch of props on Collingwood and the Raiders tonight as well, so had a particularly nice night. On to tomorrow...

[Cobra Kai]

how is that agreeing with him?

When I read it back I thought it may cause some confusion.

I was agreeing with the "so now 4+ goals seems like a significant spread." The +24 on Adelaide before the wet conditions was purely my opinion.

[davopnz]

i love brumbies +8.5 over night sando, jake white(south african world cup winning coach) + a much better loose trio = big advantage brumbies

[sando]

The Cats just beat the Saints by 100 points and yet after the match, both Geelong and the Saints put everything aside and came together in an emotional group huddle, not as two separate clubs, but as one group of united footy players in support of Casey Tutungi (quadriplegic footy player). THAT is why I love sports. At it's best, it is the rawest, purest emotional in life.